Vase is Shaded by the Yellamen

This is the first of two blogpost from the "Non-League" Finals day at Wembley.

It's a half-and-half reverse-orientation programme (and very good, to be fair).

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Sunday 21 May 2023 at Wembley
Result	Ascot United 1 Newport Pagnell Town 0
Competition	FA Vase Final
Hopstats	First part of my 27th visit to the refurbished Wembley stadium, and the 29th game (there having been two previous double-headers).
Context
Ascot United are this season’s champions of the Combined Counties Premier League North. Newport Pagnell are the holders of the FA Vase and finished third in their league, the United Counties Premier League North.
In One Sentence
Never a dull game at any moment, and an even contest between two well-matched sides, won by a solitary late glancing header.
Pre-Match
I am all out of ideas for Wembley photographs with a new angle, so this post brings you the chance for an in-depth assessment of Bobby Moore’s right knee. I think you’ll agree that it is one of the greatest knees in English football history.
The Match Report
The sides traded chances and half-chances throughout the first half. Generally, defences coped well with each other’s approach play. Ascot nearly scored from their first corner after five minutes, but Christian Smail was in position at the post to head Jordan Ajanlekoko’s header off the line. Then, Newport’s Mo Ahmed hit the woodwork from a narrow angle when it looked from the other end of the ground that there was a better crossing option. There was a lengthy stoppage for a clash of heads between NPT’s Russell Short and Ascot’s Rob Gerrard, who were both substituted. The end-to-end action continued. From my end, I could pick out instances of great defensive work by NPT’s Lewis Wilson and sub Shane Bush, and there would be similar examples at the other end too. NPT hit the post again at least once. 1-1 at the interval would have been a fair enough scoreline, but 0-0 it was, with all to play for. With hindsight, NPT’s “What if?” moment came early in the second half. Jake Watkinson was in a great position to receive Albie Hall’s cross but the ball seemed to spin off in an unintended direction with the goal at his mercy. The game was still goalless at the hour mark, maybe a bit more cagey now as players became both weary and wary. Ascot, I think it was sub Marcus Mealing, headed against the bar from a corner. The decisive goal came from an Ascot break, An initial cross from the left was too deep but Sean McCormack sent it back in and the first half sub, Kai Walters, produced a glancing header at the near post which crept in at the far post. This left ten minutes plus stoppage time for NPT to get back into it. Ascot managed this well enough, with several stoppages for treatment breaking up the play. For this passing neutral, it had been a decent balance between tension and entertainment. I’d watched the game from within the Newport Pagnell section, which then (as did Ascot’s after their presentation) largely emptied for the following game, just as the opposite side of the ground had largely been empty of Halifax and Gateshead supporters for this first one. I reckon unofficially that the 27000 total attendance was around 10000 for the Vase and 17000 for the Trophy. Both of these sides and their supporters come out of today with credit. NPT can have another go at it next season, but I assume Ascot United will be moving up to Step 4 and will not be eligible. Some Newport Pagnell fans will have been more deflated than others after the game
Match and Post-Match Pix
Newport Pagnell Town in Green shirts.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable test of statistical significance, it looks like an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test will be appropriate. The full keeper top performance table from my last 279 matches is here, on this separate page, and I’ll organise the test when we reach 300 pieces of evidence. Today Grey beats Orange and keeps a clean sheet, with no change to the league table positions. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Ascot United Win Was the prediction correct? Yes % of correct predictions so far 47% (62 from 133)
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! EFL Playoff weekend coming up next and I will try to get to all three games.