Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Horses for Causation

Yesterday's Modus Hopper Racing experience at Newbury has inspired me to find a new way of making life decisions.  I found a long list of racehorses and have linked them to a long list of matches.  The winning horse in each race will in effect add the linked match to my Saturday shortlist.  Then we will need a way of choosing from the shortlist, but by then the entire nation will be following.  Well done for being here first and humouring me.

How the horses were selected:
There are 79 horses on the race card at Lingfield today.  I chose Lingfield simply because it is an all-weather track.  Some copy-and-paste into Excel shenanigans were involved before the clip starts. 

How the matches were selected:
More copy-and-paste manipulation gave me the list of games.  All are FA Cup ties at grounds that I have not visited before, from Steps 4-6.  (I say 4&5 on the video clip below, but that was a slip of the tongue).  The list has all the unvisited Step 4s and 6s in the draw, and an arbitrary selection of Step 5s to make up the numbers.  I dropped a few games where Step 5 sides are at home to Step 6 sides to make the total add to 78.  I needed one more and it seemed appropriate that it should be at Newmarket Town.

How the horses were randomly linked to the matches:
Here's the proof ...


I've sorted the sheet and tidied up the presentation here into race groups.  The odds are indicative and could change, but Brockenhurst are the current favourites to be first on to the Saturday shortlist and Whitstable are now randomly rank outsiders.  I will end up with a shortlist of eight "winners", which can be sorted out tomorrow!  South Normanton Athletic, AFC Goole and Brimscombe & Thrupp are already out of the picture as their horses have been declared non-runners.  Updates to follow at the end of the day!

1.50 LINGFIELD


Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
BEXHILL UNITED
v
FAVERSHAM TOWN
1(5)
Let There Be Light
 3/1
BRIGHOUSE TOWN
v
ATHERTON COLLIERIES
2(6)
Rampers (IRE)
 4/1
CRAY VALLEY (PM)
v
HASTINGS UNITED
3(2)
Harmony Bay (IRE)
 20/1
RUNCORN LINNETS
v
PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES
4(8)
Last Star Falling (IRE)
 16/1
BARTON TOWN OLD BOYS
v
DROYLSDEN
5(3)
Ettie Hart (IRE)
 5/1
BROCKENHURST
v
YATE TOWN
6(7)
Matilda's Law
 7/4
WHITSTABLE TOWN
v
WALTON CASUALS
7(1)
Princess One Much (IRE)
 40/1
TADCASTER ALBION
v
COLNE
8(4)
Tihana
 10/1

2.20 LINGFIELD

Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
LOUGHBOROUGH UNIVERSITY
v
LONG EATON UNITED
1(4)
Clap In Time
 4/1
EASTBOURNE TOWN
v
WHYTELEAFE
10(3)
Tears In My Eyes (IRE)
 8/1
HARTLEY WINTNEY
v
BANBURY UNITED
11(9)
Totzo (IRE)
 8/1
ERITH TOWN
v
HORSHAM YMCA
2(7)
Cooperess
 12/1
MONEYFIELDS
v
PETERSFIELD TOWN
3(5)
Here's Two
 33/1
HULLBRIDGE SPORTS
v
MALDON & TIPTREE
4(8)
I'm Just Saying
 9/1
BLACKFIELD & LANGLEY
v
BEMERTON HEATH HARLEQUINS
5(6)
If Winter Comes
 6/1
SOUTH NORMANTON ATHLETIC
v
LINCOLN UNITED
6(10)
Peru
NR
DEEPING RANGERS
v
DEREHAM TOWN
7(1)
Regality (IRE)
 8/1
NEWMARKET TOWN
v
PETERBOROUGH SPORTS
8(2)
Ruby Wednesday
 10/1
LOUGHBOROUGH DYNAMO
v
BASFORD UNITED
9(11)
Shufoog
 11/4

2.50 LINGFIELD

Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
BECKENHAM TOWN
v
GREENWICH BOROUGH
1(9)
Hajeer (IRE)
 5/4
GUISBOROUGH TOWN
v
NEWCASTLE BENFIELD
2(5)
Romancingthestone
 10/1
GOOLE AFC
v
SHEFFIELD
3(6)
Salt Lake Sooty
NR
THETFORD TOWN
v
BURY TOWN
4(2)
Intimately
 9/2
HAMWORTHY UNITED
v
ANDOVER TOWN
5(7)
Fine Share (IRE)
 22/1
WESTFIELDS
v
KIDSGROVE ATHLETIC
6(4)
Brave Archibald (IRE)
 11/2
WROXHAM
v
FAKENHAM
7(1)
Royal Mighty
 8/1
ALMONDSBURY UWE
v
VERWOOD TOWN
8(3)
Efron (IRE)
 8/1
CONGLETON TOWN
v
HANDSWORTH PARRAMORE
9(8)
Simply Clever
 12/1

3.20 LINGFIELD

Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
BISHOP AUCKLAND
v
JARROW ROOFING BOLDON CA
1(3)
Whaleweigh Station
 15/2
CLIPSTONE
v
CLEETHORPES TOWN
2(8)
Showtime Star
 9/2
BRIMSCOMBE & THRUPP
v
BRACKNELL TOWN
3(5)
Rufford (IRE)
NR
RADFORD
v
SPALDING UNITED
4(7)
York Glory (USA)
 11/1
ARMTHORPE WELFARE
v
NEW MILLS
5(2)
Head Space (IRE)
 6/1
AFC ST AUSTELL
v
BODMIN TOWN
6(1)
Drive On (IRE)
 8/1
BRIDPORT
v
SHERBORNE TOWN
7(9)
Lead A Merry Dance
 6/1
CARLTON TOWN
v
SHEPSHED DYNAMO
8(4)
Dangerous Age
 11/1
WHITTON UNITED
v
KIRKLEY & PAKEFIELD
9(6)
Refuse Colette (IRE)
 9/2

3.50 LINGFIELD

Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
RAMSGATE
v
TOOTING & MITCHAM UNITED
1(5)
All For The Best (IRE)
 9/4
COVE
v
NORTH LEIGH
2(4)
Blue Chip
 11/8
WINCHESTER CITY
v
WINCANTON TOWN
3(1)
Julieta (IRE)
 9/2
TAUNTON TOWN
v
ODD DOWN
4(3)
Concord (IRE)
 12/1
LEICESTER NIRVANA
v
BELPER TOWN
5(2)
Lorelei
 7/1

4.20 LINGFIELD

Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
AFC PORTCHESTER
v
AFC TOTTON
1(13)
Nouvelle Ere
 14/1
NEWTON AYCLIFFE
v
MORPETH TOWN
10(11)
Rum Swizzle
 3/1
HARROGATE RAILWAY ATHLETIC
v
SPENNYMOOR TOWN
11(9)
Kachou
 6/4
PHOENIX SPORTS
v
GUERNSEY
12(4)
Cafe Caprice
 33/1
MARKET DRAYTON TOWN
v
AFC BRIDGNORTH
13(1)
Street Art (IRE)
 33/1
SILSDEN AFC
v
PADIHAM
2(8)
Osgood
 10/1
SHOREHAM
v
HORLEY TOWN
3(2)
Fine Tune (IRE)
 66/1
THATCHAM TOWN
v
GUILDFORD CITY
4(6)
Layla's King
 7/1
GLOSSOP NORTH END
v
PRESCOT CABLES
5(12)
Mighty Thor
 66/1
ALSAGER TOWN
v
SHAW LANE AQUAFORCE
6(5)
Awesome Rock (IRE)
 12/1
DEAL TOWN
v
HORSHAM
7(10)
Happy Jack (IRE)
 10/1
CHELTENHAM SARACENS
v
MILTON UNITED
8(3)
Sakhra
 14/1
RUNCORN TOWN
v
NORTHWICH VICTORIA
9(7)
Wannabe Magic
 22/1

4.55 LINGFIELD

Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
WEST AUCKLAND TOWN
v
WASHINGTON
1(2)
Lily Edge
 12/1
BRISTOL MANOR FARM
v
BITTON AFC
10(5)
Fanny Again
 10/1
RISBOROUGH RANGERS
v
AYLESBURY
11(6)
Dainty Daisey (IRE)
 33/1
ABBEY HEY
v
WARRINGTON TOWN
12(3)
Katniss (IRE)
 9/2
HOLKER OLD BOYS
v
DUNSTON UTS
2(12)
Shirataki (IRE)
 14/1
BARNSTAPLE TOWN
v
BRIDGWATER TOWN
3(7)
Hong Kong Joe
 6/1
ASHINGTON
v
THACKLEY
4(11)
Everywish
 20/1
FARNHAM TOWN
v
HIGHWORTH TOWN
5(8)
Athenian Garden (USA)
 11/2
NORTH SHIELDS
v
KENDAL TOWN
6(9)
Ballyheigue (IRE)
 20/1
CHICHESTER CITY
v
CHATHAM TOWN
7(10)
San Quentin (IRE)
 11/2
PLYMOUTH PARKWAY
v
TIVERTON TOWN
8(4)
Hermosa Vaquera (IRE)
 4/1
AFC BLACKPOOL
v
OSSETT TOWN
9(1)
Let's Confer
 25/1

5.25 LINGFIELD

Home
v
Away
#
Horse
Odds
PAGHAM
v
CORINTHIAN CASUALS
1(11)
Glennten
 8/1
MILDENHALL TOWN
v
SOHAM TOWN RANGERS
10(12)
Izzy Too
 40/1
BROMSGROVE SPORTS
v
HINCKLEY UNITED
11(1)
Incantare
 8/1
GREAT WAKERING ROVERS
v
BRANTHAM ATHLETIC
12(10)
Duke Of Dunton (IRE)
 10/1
EASTBOURNE UNITED
v
ARUNDEL
2(2)
Kicking The Can (IRE)
 11/1
OSSETT ALBION
v
MAINE ROAD
3(7)
Munsarim (IRE)
 16/1
TUFFLEY ROVERS
v
BISHOP'S CLEEVE
4(3)
Sexy Secret
 20/1
CONSETT AFC
v
SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC
5(8)
The Firm (IRE)
 12/1
HOLMESDALE
v
SOUTH PARK
6(9)
Understory (USA)
 5/1
BURSCOUGH
v
AFC EMLEY
7(5)
Megalala (IRE)
 12/1
SEVEN ACRE & SIDCUP
v
SITTINGBOURNE
8(4)
Bane (IRE)
 14/1
COWES SPORTS
v
WIMBORNE TOWN
9(6)
Omotesando
 2/1

While the afternoon was in progress, I looked for an equine way of getting the shortlist of eight down to one sole winner.  The first race I found with eight runners was the 8.25 at Kempton Park and of course the nice stewards have already randomised them for me if I use their draw number rather than their display number.

RESULTS FROM LINGFIELD

1.50  Harmony Bay 20/1 linked to Cray Valley PM v Hastings
2.20  Shufoog 11/4f, Loughborough Dynamo v Basford United
2.50  Brave Archibald 11/4, Westfields v Kidsgrove Athletic
3.20  Showtime Star 4/1, Clipstone v Cleethorpes Town
3.50  Julieta 2/1, Winchester City v Wincanton Town
4.20  Rum Swizzle 5/2, Newton Aycliffe v Morpeth Town
4.55  Katniss 7/2f, Abbey Hey v Warrington Town
5.25  Omotesando 7/4f, Cowes Sports v Wimborne Town

Here is how the eight games link to the horses in the Kempton Park decider:


Home
v
Away
Draw
Horse
Odds
Cray Valley (PM)
v
Hastings United
1
Twitch (IRE) 
6/1
Loughborough Dynamo
v
Basford United
2
Sea Of Red 
33/1
Westfields
v
Kidsgrove Athletic
3
Taper Tantrum (IRE) 
8/1
Clipstone
v
Cleethorpes Town
4
Emirates Skywards (IRE) 
15/2
Winchester City
v
Wincanton Town
5
Molten Lava (IRE) 
20/1
Newton Aycliffe
v
Morpeth Town
6
Soluble (GER) 
10/3
Abbey Hey
v
Warrington Town
7
Cloud Seven 
11/4
Cowes Sports
v
Wimborne Town
8
Landwade Lad 
9/2

THE RESULT OF THE 8.25 AT KEMPTON PARK

1st Landwade Lad 11/2
2nd Soluble
3rd Twitch
Cloud Seven was the unplaced favourite

... so I wlll be heading for the Isle of Wight for the first time since my teenage years for Cowes Sports v Wimborne Town.

It's random.