Sunday, 12 August 2018

Peacocks' Display Removes Staines Resistance



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 11 August 2018 at the Viridor Stadium
Result
Taunton Town 4 Staines Town 0
Competition
Southern League Premier Division South (Step 3)
Hopstats
Ground 648 on the lifetime list, and all because of Jamie Vardy.  I had a choice between Alvechurch and here today from my Step 3 unvisited list, so it was decided by the number of goals in Friday night’s games between Manchester United and Old Trafford.  The 2.5 goal boundary was offered at even money so the random methodology this time was that 0,1, or 2 goals in the game would send me to Alvechurch.  The 2-1 scoreline with three goals, and specifically Jamie Vardy’s late consolation, therefore brings me here!
Context
Taunton Town are playing at Step 3 for the first time after an impressive promotion season.  However, it’s the first league game of the season for both sides.
In one sentence
Staines can have no complaints, they were soundly beaten by a side with a greater cutting edge and will to win.
So what?
I refuse to acknowledge first-day league tables, but that is a dream start at this level for The Peacocks of Taunton Town.
Match Report
It was a nervy start by the visitors as Taunton attacked from the outset, but the early storm was weathered with the aid of some no-nonsense defending.  Nevertheless, a goal was coming and it was no surprise when the opener arrived after 26 minutes.  The ref called play on as a collision occurred at the right edge of the penalty area and Andrew Neal pounced on the loose ball to poke it past the orange-clad Staines keeper.

Play on!
The second came after 38 minutes with a cool finish by Ollie Chamberlain on the end of a through ball down the centre.

2-0
Surely Staines would improve in the second half, and there was a brief flicker of passing and possession from them before Taunton killed the game with the third goal.  A cross from the right created a chance on the left which was initially cleared, maybe with the woodwork involved (I was at the other end) but it fell nicely for Matt Buse in the centre to shoot home.

The result was never in doubt after that as the sides visibly tired, especially Staines, and the insult-to-injury moment was in the fifth minute of stoppage time as the fourth goal was scored by Craig Veal.
Pix
Taunton in the claret-and-blue. 























Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.

Today, Green beats Orange and has a clean sheet in the 149th tracked game.  No change in league positions.




Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Taunton Win
Was the prediction correct?
Yes
% of correct predictions so far
3 out of 4 (75%)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.  It may not be statistically significant as yet, but football coverage ignores this point as a matter of routine.


P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
10.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
11.0
3.0
20.0
2.000
Blue
38.1
16.0
7.0
15.1
54.0
14.0
71.0
1.864
Grey
46.5
22.0
10.0
14.5
73.5
13.0
67.5
1.452
Green
78.0
38.0
10.0
30.0
130.0
20.0
94.0
1.205
Purple
14.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
31.0
4.0
10.0
0.714
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Orange
33.5
11.0
7.0
15.5
55.5
6.0
14.5
0.433
Radioactive Bile
16.0
7.0
0.0
9.0
34.0
2.0
-3.0
-0.188
Yellow
31.0
8.0
7.0
16.0
65.0
5.0
-9.0
-0.290
Pink
16.0
5.0
5.0
6.0
31.0
1.0
-6.0
-0.375
Black
5.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
14.0
0.0
-8.0
-1.600
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  Will be trying to pick off another Step 3 ground on my priority list, and maybe an FA Cup replay too.


Saturday, 4 August 2018

Clear Sight of Goole



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 4 August at Victoria Pleasure Grounds
Result
Goole AFC 1 Worksop Town 2
Competition
Northern Counties East Premier League (Step 5)
Hopstats
Ground 647 on the lifetime list, and I am here randomishly specifically because Dmitri Poloz of Rubin Kazan equalised in the 51st minute of their match against Dinamo Moscow on Friday 3 August.  If he’d missed his shot I’d have been at Kirby Muxloe v Wellingborough Whitworth instead. You may think this is strange, but all is explained in the previous post.
Pre-Match Entertainment
A brief visit to the Waterways Museum, just a short drive away from the ground.  Interesting display of the history of Goole as a commercial centre in days gone by, and documentation of some of the dire differences between rich and poor.  Sound familiar?



Context
First league game of the season for both sides.  Goole were relegated from Step 4 at the end of last season.  Valuable information came from Twitter via @RussWWFC and @IanRidley1 respectively, that I should get there early enough for a portion of the excellent pie (agreed, duly done) and that Goole sold Tony Galvin to Tottenham Hotspur (in the late 70s, long before Jamie Vardy made his way from the Northern Premier League to the top tier).  I understand that Worksop supporters of a certain age may remember Ian’s coverage for their local paper.
In one sentence
Goole were not composed or clinical enough in front of goal, so they slipped to defeat against a well-organised Worksop side.
So what?
I refuse to acknowledge league tables after the first round of matches.
Match Report
In very hot conditions but on a decent surface, both defences asserted themselves in a first half of few chances.  Goole’s Jake Stannard & Josh Eastwood were booked for late tackles, and teammate Adam Lund and Worksop’s Matthew Templeton received yellows for kicking the ball away.  Worksop would reasonably claim to look the most likely to score in the first half-an-hour, but Goole gradually settled and started to pose a threat of their own.  Nevertheless it was the visiting side that took the lead on 37 minutes.  The ball was sent back into the box after a corner and Jamie Price was in the right place to poke the ball into the net.

1-0

The lead lasted only two minutes.  At the other end, a corner was also only partially cleared and the second phase gave Lund a chance to fire a shot into the roof of the net.  It was therefore level at the interval.

It was interesting to see the Worksop subs being directed through a proper warm-up and workout by a member of staff during the break, instead of the aimless kickabout that you usually see.  I don’t think I have ever seen this before, and certainly not at Step 5.

As the second half started, another late challenge earned a booking (Worksop’s Michael Trench) before both number 9s missed chances.  Goole’s Smith attempted a lob and then Worksop’s Mark Simpson shot straight at the keeper.  Then Goole’s other striker Marcel Chigumira volleyed wildly over from a right-wing cross.

The winning goal came from a low shot from Steve Woolley, but Kyle Jordan will get the credit for the deflection that found its way past a wrong-footed keeper into the bottom left hand corner.  In truth Worksop were fairly comfortable after that, with only the occasional Goole break.  When Chigumira shot well over the bar again in stoppage time, we knew the points were going to the visitors.
Pix












Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  Table now based on my last 148 matches.

Today, Green (fluorescent, but definitely green) loses unexpectedly to Pink.



Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Home win
Was the prediction correct?
No
% of correct predictions so far
67% (2/3)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.  It may not be statistically significant as yet, but football coverage ignores this point as a matter of routine.


P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
10.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
11.0
3.0
20.0
2.000
Blue
38.1
16.0
7.0
15.1
54.0
14.0
71.0
1.864
Grey
46.5
22.0
10.0
14.5
73.5
13.0
67.5
1.452
Green
77.0
37.0
10.0
30.0
130.0
19.0
86.0
1.117
Purple
14.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
31.0
4.0
10.0
0.714
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Orange
32.5
11.0
7.0
14.5
51.5
6.0
18.5
0.569
Radioactive Bile
16.0
7.0
0.0
9.0
34.0
2.0
-3.0
-0.188
Yellow
31.0
8.0
7.0
16.0
65.0
5.0
-9.0
-0.290
Pink
16.0
5.0
5.0
6.0
31.0
1.0
-6.0
-0.375
Black
5.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
14.0
0.0
-8.0
-1.600
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105


What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  Next week I have a choice between the FA Cup and my Step 3 priority list.  Maybe some randomishness again.