Saturday, 13 October 2018

Went to Aldiss Effort for Non-League Day



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Non-League Day 2018
Saturday 13 October 2018 at Aldiss Park
Result
Dereham Town 1 Kempston Rovers 3
Competition
FA Trophy Preliminary Round
Hopstats
Ground 660 on the lifetime list, and I am here randomishly because Croatia v England was a 0-0 draw last night.  Other scorelines would have taken me to Felixstowe (1-0, 0-1, 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4…) or Peterborough Sports (2-0, 1-1, 0-2 …).  A 2-1 or 3-0 scoreline either way would have brought me here too.  The evidence trail is there on Twitter, as excitement gripped the nation.  Not.  One “like” (out of sympathy I guess) is all I got.
Context
Both clubs are in the lower halves of their respective Step 4 divisions.  Dereham are part of the Isthmian League Division 1 North, while Kempston are in the Southern League Divison 1 Central.  Kempston won 3-1 at Barton Rovers in the Extra Preliminary Round, whilst Dereham enter the competition at this point.
In one sentence
An entertaining game in which Kempston scored the crucial first goal of the second half to seize the initiative.
So what?
Kempston go into the proverbial hat for the next round, drawn on Monday.  Dereham concentrate, as they say, on the league.
Match Report
The club had made an effort for Non-League Day and attracted a crowd of just over 200. This was an entertaining end-to-end game for the passing neutral, played in a warm breeze on a dry and bouncy pitch.  Kempston started with more possession and their wide men looked dangerous when running at the home defence.  The first real chance came to Dereham, a break leading to a lob that drifted just wide.

The opening goal after 20 minutes looked from the other end to be a cracker.  A turn and curling shot into the top corner by Luke Heneghan gave the home keeper Elliot Pride no chance as the visitors took the lead.  Dereham deservedly drew level before half-time.  They had pressed with several corners in succession and a direct freekick that hit the post.  They finally broke through with Daniel Beaumont finding time and space in the centre to score from the edge of the area.  1-1 at half-time was a very fair scoreline.

The second half started in end-to-end fashion.  A Dereham header clipped the bar, and then the Kempston keeper Martin Conway was forced into a sharp low save.  Then Kempston’s Nathan Tshikuna hit the post, and soon afterwards outmuscled two defenders before sending a cross-shot just high and wide.

With the first signs of fatigue appearing, Kempston landed the decisive blow after 81 minutes.  Heneghan had lots of time and space in the centre to choose his spot for his second, in similar fashion to the Dereham goal.  Of course, this being a cup competition forced Dereham to attack and they were out of luck as the visitors caught them on the break and substitute Ben Acquaye stayed calm and composed to seal the win.
Pix
Dereham are The Magpies, so they are in black-and-white.










Ben Acquaye makes it 3-1 to Kempston.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  Table compiled from my last 161 games.

Today, Blue beats Purple as expected, but no clean sheets.  Purple drops a couple of places in a congested mid-table.

Helped by the post this time



Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Away Win
Was the prediction correct?
Yes
% of correct predictions so far
69% (11 from 16)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.  It may not be statistically significant as yet, but football coverage ignores this point as a matter of routine.

P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
10.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
11.0
3.0
20.0
2.000
Blue
40.1
18.0
7.0
15.1
56.0
14.0
75.0
1.870
Grey
47.5
22.0
10.0
15.5
79.5
13.0
61.5
1.295
Green
84.0
42.0
10.0
32.0
142.0
21.0
99.0
1.179
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Purple
19.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
41.0
5.0
11.0
0.579
Radioactive Bile
20.0
9.0
0.0
11.0
40.0
3.0
2.0
0.100
Orange
36.5
11.0
7.0
18.5
69.5
6.0
0.5
0.014
Yellow
32.0
9.0
7.0
16.0
66.0
5.0
-7.0
-0.219
Pink
17.0
5.0
5.0
7.0
35.0
1.0
-10.0
-0.588
Black
6.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
15.0
0.0
-6.0
-1.000
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  Hoping to get to a good number of Step 4 grounds during the rest of the season.  41 of them to go, many of them up north, to complete that level and thus (until the next restructuring) “Doing the 388”.


Sunday, 7 October 2018

Let Them Eat Cake at Clevedon, Curry Favourite at Hallen



Work commitments meant that I was only able to dip into part of the excellent Western League Hop this weekend.  On the basis that most people who care about these results were actually present, here’s a brief personal view on two of Saturday’s games.

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 6 October 2018
2.15pm Everyone Active Stadium
5.00pm Hallen Centre
Results
Clevedon Town 1 Buckland Athletic 3
Hallen 0 Shepton Mallet 3
Competition
Western League Premier Division (Step 5)
Hopstats
Grounds 658 and 659 on my lifetime list.
Context
Pre-match league table would suggest two home sides starting as favourites.
In one sentence
Two entertaining games, two results against league form, the former a much more niggly affair than the latter.
So what?
In the league table next morning, Clevedon stay 4th, Buckland climb to 12th, Hallen drop to 14th and Shepton Mallet stay 16th.
Match Reports
Clevedon took an early lead with a classic diagonal run and textbook dink from Alex Camm.  However, Buckland’s approach play was neat and tidy with plenty of triangles and lots of space down the left flank for Lloyd Gardner.  They had already hit then woodwork once before Charlie Johansen headed in the equaliser from a Gardner cross on the half-hour.  It was a stop-start game at times with several yellow cards and an undercurrent of niggle.  Buckland sealed the win with two goals in the last quarter.  Substitute Ryan Bush rode a tackle and rounded the keeper to roll the ball in. They missed another good chance soon after, and they added a third through James Richards.  Buckland will be very happy with a good win on the road.

Johansen heads in for 1-1

Shepton Mallet were always on top territorially at Hallen, even though the best save of the half was from the Hallen keeper. It took until the 45th minute to break the deadlock.  Shepton’s defence had held firm but finally a minute of chaotic pinball in the box ended up with the ball sneaking in at the near post.  Ashley Willmott gets the credit.  The result was sealed by two second half goals.  Tyson Pollard’s deflected shot looped up, over and in.  Hallen then threatened briefly before home keeper Liam McFarlane made the save of the day only for Shepton to score from the resulting corner.  Joe Morgan got the goal.  Much of the second half had been played in remarkable lighting conditions, with bright low sun reflecting off the green surroundings under a slate-grey sky.  All we needed was a downpour and a rainbow – well, maybe not.

Deadlock broken moments before the interval
Special mention for the home-made cakes and curry at Clevedon and Hallen respectively.  Great stuff.  Thanks too, as ever, to the hop organisers.  I appreciate the work that goes in to setting up these events.
Pix – Clevedon Town v Buckland Athletic











Pix – Hallen v Shepton Mallet
  











Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  Now up to 160 games.

Today, Green lost unexpectedly to Black at Clevedon, and Radioactive Bile lost to Purple.  The clean sheet caused a jump up the table for the latter, in the first league table positional change for several weeks.




Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Clevedon win
Was the prediction correct?
No
Prediction:
Shepton Mallet win*
Was the prediction correct?
(Yes)
% of correct predictions so far
67% (10 out of 15)

*I made a mistake on Twitter just before KO – didn’t read the numbers correctly on my phone and said it would be a draw!  What do I know …

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.  It may not be statistically significant as yet, but football coverage ignores this point as a matter of routine.


P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
10.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
11.0
3.0
20.0
2.000
Blue
39.1
17.0
7.0
15.1
55.0
14.0
73.0
1.867
Grey
47.5
22.0
10.0
15.5
79.5
13.0
61.5
1.295
Green
84.0
42.0
10.0
32.0
142.0
21.0
99.0
1.179
Purple
18.0
8.0
3.0
7.0
38.0
5.0
14.0
0.778
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Radioactive Bile
20.0
9.0
0.0
11.0
40.0
3.0
2.0
0.100
Orange
36.5
11.0
7.0
18.5
69.5
6.0
0.5
0.014
Yellow
32.0
9.0
7.0
16.0
66.0
5.0
-7.0
-0.219
Pink
17.0
5.0
5.0
7.0
35.0
1.0
-10.0
-0.588
Black
6.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
15.0
0.0
-6.0
-1.000
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  No set plans yet for Non-League Day next weekend, but possibly some randomness this week based around my 42 Step 4 target grounds.