Pack Habits of European Wolves

On Thursday last I saw a Tweet (unfortunately I’ve lost sight of it now) that was bemoaning a very specific flaw with the draw for the UEFA Europa league. The writer was unhappy that Wolfsburg of Germany, Wolves of England and Wolfsberg of Austria were all in different groups. What are the chances, eh?  Well, we can work it out.

The task is made a lot easier in that the group stage draw is seeded with four pots of twelve teams.  The ultimate Wolverine combination was technically possible because the three teams were in pots 1, 3 and 4 respectively. Sadly, Woolongong Wolves of New South Wales, Australia were not present in pot 2. Maybe the Europa League will eventually go the way of the Eurovision Song Contest and open that door one day. We can but hope.

We don’t need to concern ourselves with the actual draw order, we can just think about the possible outcomes. Wolfsburg are bound to be in a different group from all of the other pot 1 teams. It doesn’t matter to us whether it turned out to be group A, B or whatever. Likewise, the outcomes from pot 2 make no difference. There is no Wolfie interest in that pot. We care less about pot 2 than Boris Johnson cares about Remainers, and that’s saying something.

WOLFSBURG And a pot 2 team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team
Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team
Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team
Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team	Any other Pot 1 Team Any Pot 2 Team

So, Wolfsburg have to be somewhere, and we don’t care who they are with or what any of the others are doing. We are therefore looking ONLY at one twelfth of all the possible outcomes at this point, shown here in yellow. The white zones have another team from Pot 1.

For the outcomes of the third pot, we are only interested in where Wolves end up. As a WBA fan, even I’m only interested for blogging purposes. Assuming the draw is fair, they have an equal chance of ending up in any of the twelve groups.

So the yellow area … is divided into 12 equal pieces. Only one of these would have Wolves from Pot 3, shown here as Orange. They’d want Old Gold but they are pretentious like that.

WOLFSBURG And a pot 2 team

On the right, the Orange area would represent Wolfsburg plus any pot 2 team plus Wolves. The Yellow areas are Wolfsburg plus any pot 2 team plus any one of the other 11 pot 3 teams, all of equal probability.  So we are down to one-twelfth of one-twelfth of all the possible outcomes.

Hopefully it is now straightforward to see that the desired presence of Wolfsburg to join the other two in effect divides the orange area into twelve once more.  Only that twelfth of the twelfth of the original twelfth is now of interest, shown here as red but magnified to a different scale at the risk of confusing you.

The rest of the orange is Wolfsberg/anyone/Wolves/anyone.  All the combinations where Wolfsberg and Wolfsburg are together, but with no Wolves, would be somewhere over in the yellow zone. Likewise there would be some permutations in the white areas there which had thrown Wolves and Wolfsburg together, but without Wolfsberg. Try working out the chances using the same method.

Anyhow, it’s clear that the perfect packing of European Wolves would only happen in a twelfth of a twelfth of a twelfth of all possible draw outcomes. This is 1 in (12 x 12 x 12) or 1 in 1728, or as a percentage, around 0.058%. In round figures about one in 2000. Howl low is that? (sorry) This is low, but still higher than the chances of being killed by a wolf while the UK is winning the Eurovision Song Contest and much less than winning the lottery.

Thanks (or should that be fangs) for your interest!

Astra Felipe and West Ham Flop

Hopperational details
Date & Venue	Thursday 26 August 2016 at the London Stadium
Result	West Ham United 0 Astra Giurgiu 1 Astra win 2-1 on aggregate
Competition	UEFA Europa League Play-Off Second Leg
Hopping	591 on the lifetime list and I am here to complete “The 92” and “The 116” and cheer for an English side in a European competition.
Pre-match preparation
Decided to heed the social media warnings and go by public transport.  The tie is level at 1-1 after West Ham conceded a late equaliser in the first leg.  The club’s public pronouncements are expecting a home win even though Astra beat West Ham at this same stage last season.  I won’t get a chance to see Dmitri Payet, Manuel Lanzini and Andy Carroll who are all injured.  I might get a chance to see former WBA fringe midfielder Felipe Teixeira. I think I last saw him on 28 August 2007 in a league cup game at Peterborough.  For the record, the match ticket was £20+1.
This match in one sentence
A cool finish on the break by the aforementioned Teixeira was the key moment in a textbook away European performance by FC Astra.
So what?
I never, ever have to go into Stratford on a West Ham match night ever again. Ever.  Plus West Ham have 85 fewer fixtures this season and will need to keep their squad members happy with adult colouring books or something.
The drama unfolds
The journey was horrendous for starters.  Massive Central Line delays meant that I had to switch via Bow Road to the DLR and then walk to the ground from Pudding Lane.  Fortunately fans have already trampled a shortcut over a perimeter fence and I managed to avoid spraining an ankle as I allowed gravity to pull me down a bank.  I had time for a few snaps and I picked up a programme but I got to my seat sweating profusely, without food or water, just as the teams were coming out.  The security checks had been ridiculously inadequate and I could easily have brought in a picnic hamper.  When I saw the food stall prices later I realised my error of omission. Anyway, to the match.  This will have been well-documented elsewhere for anyone interested so I will be brief.  FC Astra lined up with a red-topped Silviu Lung in goal facing up to Darren Randolph’s orange which did not bode well.  Slaven Bilic doesn’t follow this blog, clearly.  The game started at European pace in line with the warm evening.  West Ham used their wide players whenever possible and I liked the look of Sam Byram.  As a West Brom fan I don’t get to see full-backs very often.  Lung looked dodgy.  However, there was no end product and West Ham were often muscled off the ball by very organised and strong opponents.  0-0 at half-time would have been OK, but the classic away goal sucker punch was coming. A crossfield ball to the other fullback Reece Burke left him with too much to do.  In the split second to make a decision he kept going forward but the ball was lost leaving Astra the chance to break into the wide open spaces behind him.  Filipe Teixeira arrived from midfield like an untracked express train and finished really well.  A game changer, and West Ham would now need two. Bilic sent on Enner Valencia at the break and West Ham started the second half with more urgency.   They created several half-chances with Winston Reid in particular being unlucky that he couldn’t keep a bullet header down below the bar.  On the rare occasions that the defensive line was breached, Lung was now showing Hollywood form. The systematic time-wasting by the Astra players contributed to a grim spectacle and the home fans were getting restless.  A scuffle broke out to my left.  A target of two goals in one half became one goal to take the tie to extra time as West Ham reverted more and more to hit-and-hope tactics.  It never looked like coming and home fans with better knowledge of local infrastructure were leaving in the proverbial droves well before the end.  To be fair, another 45 minutes for extra time and penalties would probably have left people like me sleeping rough overnight in the Olympic Park.  There was a late flurry of yellow cards.  James Collins was sent on as a targetman, which must be a sign of desperation.  There was a weary resignation about the place as the whistle went and the small posse of away fans celebrated with their heroes.  Final score 0-1
Ground Pix
I like the stadium.  It doesn’t look like a ground with a running track.  I like the shapes, the lines, the angles.  I’m not bothered that West Ham have been very fortunate to be in the right place at the right time to be here.  The infrastructure still needs huge improvement to give an acceptable matchday experience to fans and local residents and businesses.  I didn't like the atmosphere inside which was muted and disappointing.  There were plenty of football tourists like me and lots of empty seats.  I never got the sense that the Hammers fans were that bothered about the Europa League.  If there had been a late equaliser, thousands of them had already given up the chance of watching extra time. The red structure nearby is The Orbit, original design by Anish Kapoor.  I last went to the top in 2012 during the London Olympics and a tunnel slide experience has now been added.
Match Pix
These days I don’t get the chance to watch football from high places that often so I tend to choose the upper tier and enjoy the ebb-and-flow rather than the blood-and-thunder of lower leagues.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
As “expected”, red beats orange and adds another clean sheet.  Here’s the latest from the last 88 games I’ve seen. 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Ranked by points-per-game (PPG). P W D L GC CS Pts PPG Red 7.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 3.0 21.0 3.00 Green 45.0 25.0 5.0 15.0 69.0 13.0 76.0 1.69 Maroon 4.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 6.0 1.50 Blue 24.1 9.0 5.0 10.1 40.0 8.0 32.0 1.33 Grey 32.5 14.0 7.0 11.5 48.5 8.0 40.5 1.25 Orange 14.5 4.0 3.0 7.5 18.5 4.0 16.5 1.14 Purple 9.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 20.0 2.0 4.0 0.44 Yellow 17.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 31.0 4.0 6.0 0.35 Black 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 -2.0 -0.67 Pink 10.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 23.0 1.0 -11.0 -1.10 Radioactive Bile 9.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 23.0 0.0 -17.0 -1.89 White 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.33
What Next?
Watch @GrahamYapp on Twitter for details!  Work commitments mean that all decisions are last-minute until further notice.  My Step 2 priorities for this season will be Fylde, Poole, Bromsgrove Sporting (landlords to Worcester City) and Darlington (on the move soon) to restore “The 160”.