Digging Deep to Secure the Win

 

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 13 November at the Regional Electrical Services Ltd Stadium, Beechnut Lane
Result	Pontefract Collieries 2 Hebburn Town 1
Competition	Northern Premier League (Division One) East (Step 4)
Hopstats	Ground 735 on my lifetime list was selected by a convoluted method which is explained in full detail on this Twitter thread. I decided that I could draw the attention of more people to the Register of Members’ Final Interests given some of the news coverage earlier in the week from Westminster. It’s something that everyone should look at for their own MP. I had six unvisited Step 4 grounds on my shortlist. In alphabetical order of team name, I added up the figures on the register for extra earnings and donations for each local MP. The MP for Chippenham (including Melksham Town), Rt Hon Michelle Donelan, gets a right honourable zero against her name. Likewise Robert Largan, MP for High Peak (covering Glossop North End) scored a technical zero as no actual value is assigned to his part-interest in a London property. Craig Whittaker MP for Calder Valley (Brighouse Town) opened with £3457 worth of Euro hospitality in his total of £4232, but was soon overtaken by Nigel Evans MP (Ribble Valley, Clitheroe) also with some football-related interest (courtesy of Qatari sources) in a total of £8912.67. The runner-up was Tim Loughton MP (his constituency includes Lancing) with £65450 made up mostly of two additional salaries for 22hrs/month but the winner was Yvette Cooper MP for this patch. £73388 of donations for office and campaigning from a company based in Hertfordshire plus a bit of rugby league hospitality and book earnings gave a total of £79131, comfortably enough to bring me here. It’s randomish in the sense I had no idea what the outcome would be when I started the thread. It’s not random in the mathematical sense as not all outcomes were equally likely. Here’s the link to the Register of Members’ Financial Interests so you can have a look at your own representative, or just dip in at random and be amazed at the extent and variation.
Context
Not much time for detailed research this week but did spot that both teams had a proper tonking (technical term) last time out. Pontefract went down 4-0 at Shildon while Stocksbridge won 5-1 at Hebburn. I saw Hebburn just a few weeks ago. The teams start the day in 18th and 13th places in the division, and both have announced a new signing this week.
In One Sentence
Hebburn were wasteful with several set pieces and Pontefract’s debutant striker scored both goals to ensure a home win.
So What?
The teams are now 17th and 14th respectively. We are about a third of the way through the season.
Pre-match Entertainment
A brief walk around the town centre, which has a lot of blue plaques on some interesting old buildings. It’s great to see a town centre with character which isn’t an identi-build collection of the same old retail names, but on the other hand there were definite signs of economic stress. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) I witnessed an incident and had to spend some time giving a statement to the police, and therefore didn't have as much time as I would have liked. Maybe a re-visit in July for this ... ?
Match Report
For the first quarter of an hour the teams largely negated each other. Both defences were good in the air, and Hebburn’s two early set pieces came to nothing. Connor Bell came closest, just over-running a curling pass from the right so that it comically hit his back leg.  Then someone tried to catch Hebburn keeper Kieran Hunter off his line from distance, but the shot went wide. Hebburn’s next chance was even better. They worked the ball down the right again, drawing the keeper out and taking him out of the equation, but a defender had got back to be in just the right position to intercept and clear the final pass. Pontefract took the lead in the 34th minute with a debut goal from Rob Guilfoyle. For the rest of the first half I was somewhat distracted and disgusted by the loud political ranting and rambling of a nearby spectator on matters of Brexit, immigration and events at Yorkshire Cricket. After the earlier experience, this time I chose, rightly or wrongly, not to get involved. It’s midnight as I draft this and it’s still bothering me somewhat. The second half also started with a couple of fruitless set-pieces for Hebburn before Pontefract spurned a chance of their own, with a shot curled over the bar. Just after the hour they eventually doubled their lead. I’d moved to the other end, but it looked as if the ball broke kindly for Guilfoyle, or maybe it was a good through ball, but whichever it was he then had an uninterrupted run on goal for a neat, easy finish. Hebburn kept going and the home defence were kept busy. Finally they converted a free-kick for a consolation goal with a few minutes left. It was a really good shot by Michael Richardson into the top corner from a central position. For this passing neutral, this was a good contest between two physically strong sides, with the result in doubt for long periods. I’m not going to let one resident and one supporter spoil my day, or my impression of the club.
Match Pix
Pontefract in blue. Apologies for the poor quality this week. I was trying some manual settings on my camera as the natural light faded and I didn't get them right.
Ground Pix
Another ground close to a train line, though the trees mean that they are more audible than visible. Top old-school whiteboard work here (I'm jealous) See HERE for more fantastic examples of Non-League bins on this Facebook page (not mine, but I do occasionally contribute)
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 236 matches is here, on this separate page. Today, Orange beats Green, but no clean sheet for either. Pontefract keeper Ryan Musselwhite has inherited the right genes, as many readers will recognise. Here is a picture of him pacing around in each half. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Away Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 49% (45 from 91) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! Fourteen Step 4 grounds to go, almost all of them well over 200 miles per round trip. Whether it will be realistic to get to Guernsey as one of them remains to be seen. We are also entering the season of bad weather and pitch inspections, so it will be a month of late decisions and late substitutions.

Tens and Tens' Ability

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 4 September 2021 at the Winklebury Football Complex
Result	Basingstoke Town 4 Bridgwater United 1
Competition	FA Cup 1st Round Qualifying
Hopstats	Ground 725 on the lifetime list and I am here randomishly because of a world-wide sequence of events involving goals in World Cup qualifiers last Thursday. I had three unvisited Step 4 grounds hosting FA Cup ties to choose from. The letter B linked Basingstoke with Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, and Burkina Faso. They scored more goals between them (eight, of which five were from Belgium) than the five teams I had alphanumerically linked to C (for Corinthian) and R (for Runcorn Linnets). The full story, which gripped the nation briefly, is explained here. For new readers to the blog, hello, and please get used to this kind of thing.
Context
Basingstoke beat AFC Totton 2-1 at home, entering in the Preliminary Round. Bridgwater have two home wins to get here – 2-1 over Brixham in the Extra Preliminary Round and 3-0 over Ilfracombe Town. Let’s assume league form counts for nothing, but the home side play in the Step 4 Isthmian Division One South Central and the visitors are in the Step 5 Western League Premier Division. They became United rather than Town in March 2021 after a merger with a women’s side from Yeovil.
In One Sentence
The scoreline does not reflect the full story, although no doubt the better team on the day eventually got the win.
So What?
As is usual with Cup games, Basingstoke go into the proverbial hat for the next round, and Bridgwater concentrate on the league.
Pre-match Entertainment
I took an early train into London St Pancras and walked through Bloomsbury and Covent Garden to Waterloo. Then in Basingstoke I sauntered through Eastrop Park and Basingstoke Fen before walking out to the ground. Later on I walked across London again for a total of about 11-12 miles for the day. In London, I realise how much I was either inattentive or looking down at the pavement during my younger years. I'm increasingly obsessed by rooflines, and the adjacent co-existence of old and new architecture in towns and cities. So much to see and reflect upon. As I walked past the labelled hospital, I wondered whether the rich male benefactors expected honours, praise and thanks just for doing the right thing. Some things haven't changed that much. I liked Basingstoke. It seems to be a town that has made an effort to be interesting. There seem to be some excellent museums too that I could have chosen for the high-culture part of my day had the weather been different. By the way, the town has claims on the history of Jane Austen, if you were wondering about the blog post title. The match report should make it clear!
Match Report
Most of the early pressure came from the home side. Maybe it takes a while for visitors to adapt to the artificial surface – though that’s perhaps less true these days with more of them around. Bridgwater blocked repeatedly and conceded a string of corners, but defenders put bodies in the way and there was one good parry from keeper Jake Viney. Gradually, Bridgwater got better at keeping the ball but hardly ever in the final third. It’s a credit to their defence that it took until the closing moments of the first half before Conor Lynch, wearing number ten, found time and space down the left edge of the area to shoot and open the scoring. In the second half, the home side had an early scare with a moment of penalty area confusion, and the woodwork struck, before the Bridgwater defensive line was broken and Lynch added his second with a neat finish. The visitors were still not yet beaten however – they hit the woodwork and Jordan Greenwood’s goalbound overhead kick was headed off the line. The former was a shot from Morgan Williams (I think) that pinged the far post and rebounded straight back across the six-yard box without going in. Their comeback ambition, however, appeared to be snuffed out by a straight red card for Mike Duffy. Most of the action of my season seems to have been at the other end from where I'm standing, but I think it was for, shall we say, physical contact of violent intent as he squared up to an opponent. There must have been a raised hand or arm for the ref to make that decision. The ref also soon had to have a word with the Bridgwater captain as things started to get a bit more heated. Lynch had a chance to complete a hat-trick from the spot but as the pic shows, Viney was untroubled by his penalty. Then Bridgwater did get a goal back. Nick Woodrow, also wearing ten (pay attention now), hooked the ball home after a neat flick on. He retrieved the ball rapidly to show that he still thought there was a chance for his side. It was not to be. In the last few minutes with spaces at the back, Basingstoke added two more. Firstly D’Andre Brown calmed the home nerves with a fierce shot to make it 3-1 and then Lynch (wearing ten remember) was able to complete a hat-trick with a curling shot after Viney seemed to have misjudged a bounce at the edge of his area. The right team won, but 4-1 is a bit flattering. It matters not in the next round.
Match Pix
Basingstoke in Yellow and Blue.
Ground Pix
Most readers of this blog (when I say most I probably should say both) will know why a second visit to see Basingstoke Town has been required. Their new rented home is the county facility for Hampshire FA, and it is very neat and tidy with an artificial surface. Negotiations about the future of their previous home seem to have stalled and it would be unwise for me to comment but there is an update on the club website, and also here in the local paper. The story involves wealth and politics. Doesn't it always.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 226 matches is here, on this separate page. In a repeat of last week, Orange plays Green, but this time it goes the other way.  Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Away Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 49% (40 from 81) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! School term starts this coming week and I can’t make definite plans just yet. I have 24 grounds on a priority list which will complete everywhere in England at Step 4 and above.

 

Let the World Decide

Image: Russian Presidential Press and Information Office,
via Wikimedia Commons under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0

I have three FA Cup ties at unvisited Step 4 grounds from which to choose randomishly for Saturday 4 September.

Basingstoke Town take on Bridgwater United. Corinthian are at home to Folkestone Invicta. Runcorn Linnets are welcoming Liversedge.

There are a number of World Cup 2022 Qualifiers taking place today. I can manufacture three groups of five international sides using a strained alphabetic link. The key stat will be the TOTAL number of goals scored by the five teams (not including their opponents).

I will go to the FA Cup tie linked to the biggest total.

In the event of a tie, either two- or three-way, I will look at the official times of the goals scored in the games (as conventionally reported such as 37, 90+1 etc) and it will be the group that reached their final total FIRST that will be declared the winner. It is highly unlikely that a second tie-break would be needed, but it would be something similar by countback to a penultimate goal.

A small number of other sides had already completed their game prior to this list being devised in the early afternoon on Thursday so they weren’t included. I also seemed to overlook the existence of Bulgaria (though it would have made no difference).

It’s randomish. Not strictly perfectly random as the outcomes are not of equal probability. However, it is a genuine unknown for me and that will suffice. The African games will be followed by the Asian and European zones and then my hopping fate will be decided by events in South America, with a final result around midnight. Thank you for your interest and/or bemusement.

What happened?

Dieumerci Mbokani's goal for DR Congo was the first of the session, getting Corinthian off the mark just before 4pm UK time. Norwich City fans will remember him. Three more games kicked off at 5pm. By the end of these African games, B for Basingstoke had a 3-2 lead over C for Corinthian, including a goal for Steve Mounié (lately of Huddersfield Town). All three B goals were scored against R for Runcorn sides, and it was already likely that they would need a hatful from at least one of Romania, Armenia or Ecuador.

At half-time across Europe it was clear that meanwhile in Australia, China were not going to contribute much, if anything, for C for Corinthian, even with a goal through the Czech Republic, they were falling further behind B for Basingstoke due to a Belgian brace in Estonia. Neither Romania nor Armenia were on the scoresheet for R for Runcorn, so we stand at 5-3-0 for B,C and R respectively. As of 9pm it now looked as if Bolivia v Colombia would be the key game for the final total.

This game kicked off in La Paz as the second half was starting around Europe. Belgium added their third (Romelo Lukaku's second) and Romania scored to finally put something in Runcorn's column. B for Basingstoke's lead, however, was strengthened by Belgium's fourth and fifth goals in Tallinn. A second for Romania but a blank for Armenia means that the scores were 8-3-2 with only South America still in action. No goals for Belarus proved to be relatively unimportant for B for Basingstoke. With Bolivia-Colombia looking to be a low-scoring game approaching half-time, it now seemed that C for Corinthian would be defeated and only an unlikely and exceptional avalanche of goals for Ecuador could turn things around in favour of R for Runcorn.

I fell asleep at this point but woke to the news that there had been a 1-1 draw in Bolivia and Ecuador had scored twice. So the final scores are now summarised in the table below and I am randomishly off to Basingstoke on Saturday.

FA Cup Home Side	Linked International Sides	Goals Scored	Group Total
Basingstoke Town	Benin v Madagascar (A)	Mounié	9
	Burkina Faso v Niger (A)	Konaté, Traoré (pen)
	Belgium v Estonia (A)	Vanaken, Lukaku 2, Witsel, Foket
	Belarus v Czech Republic (A)	-
	Bolivia v Colombia (H)	Saucedo
Corinthian	China v Australia (A)	-	4
	Czech Republic v Belarus (H)	Barák
	DR Congo v Tanzania (H)	Mbokani
	Congo v Namibia (A)	Hambira (og)
	Colombia v Bolivia (A)	Martinez
Runcorn Linnets	Romania v Iceland (A)	Man, Stanciu	4
	ARmenia v North Macedonia (A)	-
	EcuadoR v Paraguay (H)	Torres, Estrada
	MadagascaR v Benin (H)	-
	NigeR v Burkina Faso (H)	-

Bring more randomish decison-making into your life. It's stress-free. People will think you are crazy, but it's a small price to pay ;)