A Cup Draw from Long Eaton

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 17 September at Grange Park
Result	Long Eaton United 1 Gainsborough Trinity 1
Competition	FA Cup 2nd Qualifying Round
Hopstats	Ground #757 on the lifetime list. I am here a week later than originally scheduled, but all games were postponed as is well understood. The original reason for my choice of venue was a randomish event, as Twitter followers will have seen. The new Prime Minister used the word “deliver” or one of its derivatives exactly three times from her first speech in Downing Street. Only two and I would have been at Sheppey United, another one and it would have been Lancing. It seems a long time ago now, and rather insignificant. For the record, she stated that the previous bloke had delivered something, she was going to focus to delivering things, and in the final sentence she was determined to deliver. Buy shares in moped manufacturers immediately. Anyway …
Context
Gainsborough sit mid-table in the Step 3 Northern Premier and beat Loughborough United in the last round to get here. Long Eaton United came up to Step 4 from the United Counties Premier North as last season’s champions, and are mid-table at Step 4 in the Northern Premier Division One East (or something like that).  They’ve beaten Sherwood Colliery (after a replay), Quorn (convincingly) and Hednesford Town (away) and also beat Gresley Rovers in the rearranged FA Trophy game in midweek – the match I would have attended but for postponement.
In One Sentence
A hard-fought and reasonably entertaining game with defences generally on top, with the visitors scoring a late equaliser.
So What?
Both teams are in the proverbial hat for the next round draw, and there will be a replay in midweek.
Pre-match Entertainment
Pause for a short walk and a bonus ice-cream cone at Trent Lock, near the confluence of Trent and Soar, where some of my ancestors may well have paddled around and plied their trades.
Match Report
A minute’s silence in reflection of the life of HM the Queen was observed before kickoff. It was clear that Long Eaton were not going to be overawed by the status of their visitors, just as in the previous round at Hednesford. Defences were well on top, albeit with some brave blocks and headers from both teams. It was interesting to watch Clayton Donaldson at work for Trinity. He has dropped another tier since I last saw him at York City, and fair play to him for still going strong. As with Grant Holt whom I saw at Wroxham last season, he made up for reduced pace and energy with positioning and vision. Having said that he would have been disappointed to see a long-distance first-half effort drift wide with the home keeper out of position. The best chance of the half fell to Long Eaton after 38 minutes. A surge break down the left ended up with a chance and a good block by the keeper. The home side, though, took the lead from the resulting corner, Alex Marshall hooking the ball in from close range, to give Long Eaton the half-time advantage. Gainsborough’s management made a double substitution at half time, and their third also came before Long Eaton made any change. The game followed the same general pattern. Long Eaton missed a chance for a second when Marshall’s attempted lob when through was easily caught. Gainsborough began to commit more men forward and I made a note that this was going to be 2-0 or 1-1. It was to be the latter. Donaldson’s persistence at the byline led to a loose ball in the six-yard box and it is his happy face in the background as substitute Tom Cursons hammers the ball into the net at the far post.   With about ten minutes left including stoppage time, it looked as if the visitors had been spurred into action. However, the match finished in a tense and tetchy atmosphere after the circumstances over a home free-kick were loudly disputed from the bench. The kick rebounded off a player who looked to be too close, but equally it looked as if the ball had been deliberately struck at him. The ref allowed play to continue, and Gainsborough rather wasted the gift chance of a break. That’s now history and the teams will meet again on Tuesday.
Other Match Pix - Long Eaton in blue & black stripes
Ground Pix
This is a neat-and-tidy ground with a very good playing surface.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 258 matches is here, on this separate page. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Away Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 44% (50 from 113) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! I have twenty priority grounds, that is to say Plymouth Parkway who are now in Step 3, and nineteen other Step 4 grounds to go. No definite plans for next week at this point.

 

 

York City and Its Trains Stay on Track

 This space is where a pic of the programme front cover normally goes. 

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 2 October 2021 at LNER Community Stadium
Result	York City 2 Whitby Town 0
Competition	FA Cup 3rd Qualifying Round
Hopstats	Ground 730 on my lifetime list is the third consecutive game at a ground known as a Community Stadium, following trips to Brentford and Boston United. This isn’t a random selection. It’s a new ground on the way to restore my full coverage down to Step 2, which all being well will happen at Gloucester next weekend.
Context
Predicting FA Cup results is always tricky. The old adage says that league form goes out of the window. The prize money is such that most clubs take the competition seriously in these early rounds. York City, like Boston United last week, need to get their new ground hosting games at a higher level sooner rather than later. They are mid-table at Step 2 in the National League North, and they saw off Hebburn Town comfortably enough in the previous round. Whitby Town are a step below York, in the Northern Premier League, but interestingly their good league position is built mostly on an impressive away record. They won away at FA Vase holders Warrington Rylands in the last round. Much better to rely on the colour of the goalkeeper top as a predictive method (see below). You don’t get that with Opta. Update: it was not a good day for keepertopcolourstats, and not for the first (or last) time.
In One Sentence
A fair result, secured with first-half goal poaching skills from veteran Clayton Donaldson, and a nice loud singing and sweary day out for the Whitby support.
So What?
It’s a cup game so York are in the hat for the next round and Whitby aren’t. Other clichés are available.
Pre-match Entertainment
I travelled up to York by LNER Azuma from Stevenage today, and sat in the LNER Azuma stand. For the morning, the National Railway Museum had my attention. It has been refurbished and extended since my last visit, many decades ago. This was a happy couple of hours in the presence of engineering and logistic excellence with some social and political history thrown in. I managed to walk away from the train sets on sale and then decided to stick to my original plan to walk the 2.8 miles to the ground, which was pleasant enough despite the pouring rain. I need the exercise, trust me.  From an exhibit about life on the Ambulance Trains of WW1
Match Report
My small bottle of water was confiscated at the gate for reasons which are not entirely clear and satisfactory to me, or the stewards (just doing what they are told etc etc) but we laughed. There had been no programmes on sale outside, so I set about finding the sellers inside. There were none. A number of us were clearly doing the same, and a supervising steward told us they were on their way, and she pointed out where the seller would be. Half-an-hour later, still nothing. This time we were fobbed off with the old “not our responsibility” line. I’m irritated by this but not enough to ever go back, but there are some hoppers for whom programmes are a non-negotiable part of the experience. A hasty tweet went unanswered, as is usual for clubs at this level. As I write this late on Saturday evening, I find that it is £1.50 for the online digital programme as a pdf. There is no chance whatsoever that I am paying that, so my collection will have a little gap in it. One steward in particular was very helpful and tried her best to solve the issue for us. Of the other four that I spoke to at various points, three were non-English speaking and didn’t understand the question, and the fourth was on her first day and didn’t know. I gave up, and sat down to watch the game. York took control pretty much from the start. Whitby keeper Shane Bland had already been busy before he watched Clayton Donaldson’s first effort of the day go narrowly wide. The opening goal was just after the quarter-hour, Bland doing superbly well to save Mackenzie Heaney’s shot and Donaldson’s initial follow-up, but the veteran striker kept his composure to slot home the second rebound. Whitby’s first real chance was a good one, and could have changed the game had it been taken. As it happens, it goes in the records as a good one-handed save by Pete Jameson in the York goal rather than a spectacular equaliser for Jacob Hazel. We only had to wait until just after the half-hour for Donaldson’s second, with another element of deja-vu as it took him two attempts to score from Michael Woods’ pass. Woods had broken strongly down the left flank when a Whitby attack had broken down. The visitors’ task began to look impossible, but to be fair their fans kept up their noisy (if not family-friendly) support throughout. They seemed determined to have a good day one way or another. Jameson was called into action again just before half-time and that was the other potential game-changing moment. After half-time, the main question was whether Donaldson would get a hat-trick. York kept pressing, and Whitby stayed competitive for a good while. A goal would certainly have given them hope. Bland continued to have a busy afternoon behind their defence, denying Harrison Hopper and (of course) Donaldson in the first few minutes of the second half. Clayton Donaldson in search of a hat-trick Donaldson had one more chance but the effort was deflected for a corner. Whitby had one more too on the hour mark, but Jameson was in the right place at the right time. The result was secure and there was no further scoring. So, credit to York City for an efficient performance and safe passage to the next round, and credit to Whitby for putting up a fight before bowing out of the competition. As the rain fell, it was time for the second half of my exercise as I set off to walk back to the station. Note to any hoppers doing the same: the riverside path suggested by Google Maps is not sensible in wet weather. It’s a mudbath. Stick to either the Huntingdon or Haxby Road alternative. It takes just over an hour at moderate walking pace.
Match Pix
Ground Pix
Considerable similarity with last week at Boston United. An out-of-town site with modern amenities has replaced a worn-out stadium, and it needs to get promoted sooner rather than later. It felt cavernous today with one side unopened. “Is this a library?” sang the Whitby end at one point, and you could see why. I like the design and the colours, but I was too grumpy after the programme debacle and wet after the walk to really enjoy the experience today, especially when the result was effectively decided by half-time. The ground is shared with a rugby league side, and you can just make out the overpainted markings. The surface, although very wet today, was excellent.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 231 matches is here, on this separate page. Today, Pink beats Orange and keeps a clean sheet, in defiance of the league table. For the first time in many weeks, there is a change in rank order as Pink goes above Yellow.    Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Away Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 49% (42 from 86) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! The provisional plan, subject to the usual barriers of life-in-post-Brexit-and-mid-pandemic England, is to head to Gloucester City v Bradford next Saturday as explained above.