Fine Playoff Margins Yet Again

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Sunday 28 May 2023 at Wembley
Result	Carlisle United 1 Stockport County 1 aet (Carlisle win 5-4 on penalties)
Competition	EFL League Two Promotion Playoff (Fourth Tier)
Hopstats	29th visit to the refurbished Wembley, three were double-headers so 32nd game. Sadly, I have no complete records of my visits (10 approx) to the original Wembley with the Twin Towers.
Context
Stockport finished 4th, four points behind the final automatic promotion spot, and defeated Salford City on penalties in the playoff semi-final. Carlisle were three further points behind in 5th place, and beat Bradford City in order to be here today, overturning a 0-1 first-leg defeat. In the league meetings, Stockport have the edge with a home win and an away draw. For Stockport, this has been their first season back in League Two after their 2011 relegation, which saw them drop to the sixth tier of the pyramid for four seasons. Over the same period, Carlisle reached League One at the end of 2005-6 with a second successive promotion after just one season in the fifth tier and their current spell in League Two started in 2014-15.
In One Sentence
Another typical tightly-contested playoff with the result in doubt right up to the brutal ending of a penalty shootout.
So What?
Carlisle head up to League One and Stockport will, as they say, “go again” in League Two.
Pre-match Pix
A recorded Clive Tyldesley tells us what we can't do as we approach the stadium this year. The lunchtime kickoff meant that pre-match was largely restricted to finding another bit of Bobby Moore to keep your interest. Here is his left ankle, which played such a pivotal role in his exemplary sense of balance as a defender.
Match Report
Stockport are the other Hatters in the league and there was a nice comment in the buildup that yesterday had been the day of the Straw Hatters and the real ones were here today. I hadn’t known about such headgear rivalry before. Not much happened of note in the first quarter of the game except a pre-planned 15th minute of applause in the Carlisle end. This was in memory of Lewis Michael Kirkpatrick, a 15yo who had died after getting into difficulties in the River Eden last weekend. Stockport’s Ben Hinchcliffe was the first of the keepers to be called into action, pushing away a goalbound header by Joe Garner. Then Jon Mellish had a few minutes to forget as he first picked up a yellow card and was then given the unwanted credit for the opening goal. Originally credited in the stadium to Tanto Olaofe, it became clearer on the replay that his intended cross had looped up over Tomas Holy in the Carlisle goal from Mellish’s unlucky deflection. Carlisle responded and just before half-time some dithering in the centre circle by Fraser Horsfall allowed United’s Joel Senior to get away. Horsfall should probably have been yellow-carded for that, but his defensive colleague Akil Wright got back at pace to make a saving tackle. Then Carlisle had another chance in first-half stoppage time as John-Kymani Gordon created space to shoot, but the ball went over the bar. The second half started in similar fashion with Carlisle on the front foot, while Stockport looked dangerous on the break. Some surging direct running from the midfield got the crowd going, but strong Stockport tackling and blocking protected the lead. There is usually an “If Only” moment in these games, and today’s arrived just before the hour mark. Wright should have scored with a header from a set piece to put Stockport two up. Carlisle made a double-substitution and changed formation. I made a note that I thought this would end up as 1-1 or 2-0, something would have to give. We had an end-to-end spell as some of the players began to tire. Carlisle had a decent shout for a penalty and it took a timely intervention by Senior to stop Olaofe from the resulting Stockport breakout. With seven minutes plus stoppage time left, Carlisle created a great shooting chance for Mellish. His effort struck a defender on the line but VAR weren’t supportive of the claims for handball. However, Carlisle did get their equaliser a minute later. Substitute Omari Patrick got himself on the scoresheet with a very calm finish. There could have been another twist in the final minute with a close range block at the other end to complete a chaotic few moments in the six-yard box. So, to extra-time. My notes from the next half-hour are sparse as no-one wanted to make a mistake. In the second added fifteen, both keepers were needed to make a good save each. Holy saved from Jack Stretton and Hinchcliffe somehow pawed a header away (pictured below) as the scores remained level. It seemed inevitable that both keepers would end up centre stage as the need for a penalty shootout was eventually confirmed. Penalty shootouts are, essentially, a lottery. Yes, they are not truly random events, but there is a huge element of fortune involved. The mental strength of players has to be as good as any technical or physical aspect. The record books will show that Ryan Rydel’s kick, the Stockport second, was saved by Holy. They scored three out of four, but Carlisle had scored all of theirs too, so the sequence unfolded with Ryan Collar having to score from Stockport’s fifth so as not to end it all right there. He did. So Taylor Charters could still win it for Carlisle with their fifth. He did, sending Hinchcliffe the wrong way as his shot went to the left corner. The stadium, as it does on such occasions, divided. Joy and pain. There were very few Stockport fans left in the seats by the time the interminable formal presentations were under way. At least some would have been on their way to empty the local stores of after-sun cream. For this passing neutral, the playoff addiction remains. A Yorkshire battle coming up next with a place in the Championship at stake.
Match Pix
Stockport in blue. Wembley Stadium ought, in my view, to be clearer in their advice to spectators about the likelihood of sustained direct sunlight in a given seating position. I’ve been here many times now and know that the south-west corner is always in the shade, and that the upper tiers are more likely to be in the shade than the lower. But if you are in lower north (especially for lunchtime kickoffs) or lower east you are going to get fried in undiminished sunshine for two hours. For playoff and lower league games, there’s a higher chance that spectators will be infrequent or even first-time visitors. The apparent trajectory of the sun (or the earth’s rotation if you are pedantic) might even be part of the reason why a rumour started about a lucky and unlucky end when the place was first refurbished.       The shootout pix are Stockport's first and fifth, and then the winning moment for Carlisle.
Post-Match Pix
Post-Match Entertainment
An attempt to walk back to West Hampstead was abandoned because the route through an industrial estate and alongside the North Circular was just too dusty and unpleasant. So I took the Tube from Dollis Hill into central London and walked from Westminster to Blackfriars to get my daily total back up to around five miles again before picking up the train back to Hertfordshire.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable test of statistical significance, it looks like an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test will be appropriate. The full keeper top performance table from my last 281 matches is here, on this separate page, and I’ll organise the test when we reach 300 pieces of evidence. Today, I made an early call to predict the penalty shootout when both keepers turned up in Green. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Draw & Penalties Was the prediction correct? Yes % of correct predictions so far 48% (65 from 136)
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! Back to Wembley yet again shortly for the League One playoff between Barnsley & Sheffield Wednesday.

 

Forceful Brentford Fire Four for Finn Forss

A poster-style programme today.

Photos in this post may be of lesser quality than is usual. All were taken on a battered smartphone using the Whatsapp app due to some new internal storage issue or software glitch on my aged phone. Apologies.

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Brentford Community Stadium
Result	Brentford 7 (Seven) Oldham Athletic 0
Competition	League Cup Round 3
Hopstats	Ground 728 on my lifetime list is a midweek hop to Brentford’s new ground, restoring my complete coverage of the current 92 (Premier League to League Two) and 115 (to National League).
Context
Assuming league form is irrelevant (with Brentford likely to field a changed side) is the best way to keep this match-up interesting. Brentford reached this round with a 3-1 win over Forest Green. Oldham have had two penalty-shootout wins, over Tranmere Rovers and Accrington Stanley respectively, in the earlier rounds. However, you can’t really ignore that they are up against Premier League opposition today, while they themselves sit bottom of League Two, and that there have been recent fan protests against the club’s owners.
In One Sentence
The game was over as a contest within minutes, and from then on it was closer to an exhibition match, but for a ticket price of £10 there are no complaints from me.
So What?
Brentford are in the draw for the fourth round later today (Wednesday), and, as is the way with cup competitions, Oldham are concentrating on the league. Maybe even, in their case, on survival.
Pre-match Entertainment
A day of teaching A level thermal physics, and electron configurations of the elements for chemistry. Now, that’s entertainment.
Match Report
Some elements of the Griffin Park experience have been kept. Red girders and brickwork on the concourses. Singing Hey Jude for some reason just before the teams come out. Domination of possession from the kickoff. Any chance of a giant-killing depended on Oldham making a good start and irritating the home crowd. Instead they were a goal down within three minutes. Yoane Wissa was fouled and Marcus Forss opened the scoring from the penalty spot. The dominance continued. Another neat move led to Wissa’s shot hitting the post, and the rebound falling for Forss. Two-nil, any nerves settled, already now a case of how many they would get. Mention should be made of the link play between Dominic Thompson and Tariqe Fosu-Henry on the left flank who must have been watching the Shaw-Sterling videos from Euro 2020(21). Oldham did improve and managed to play out from the back themselves occasionally, keeping the possession stats (for what they are worth) down to 65:35 when it felt more in Brentford’s favour. On 38 minutes, Wissa scored the third, assisted by Mathias Jensen who had pounced on a breakdown in his own half and surged through the middle on the break. Ruthless and effective. It was five-nil before the interval. The ball bounced off defender Raphael Diarra for an own goal, and then Forss completed his first-half hat-trick. The own goal arose from a savage Brentford response to an Oldham breakdown, and the fifth was straight through the buttery middle like a knife in a mixed metaphor. Oldham made a triple substitution including the introduction of teenager Harry Vaughan. I’m noting this because he has attracted some attention and been described as “exciting”, so, just in case, this is my “I saw him play before you’d heard of him!” post to go alongside one of my previous ones for Jamie Vardy. He is of atypical height for a midfielder these days – Tony Pulis, for example, would never sign him, but he certainly wasn’t hiding on the pitch and his team-mates seemed happy to let him have the ball. Oldham should have had a consolation goal. A momentary lapse at the back was seized on by Benny Couto. His long-distance attempt to loop the ball over home keeper Alvaro Fernandez was tipped away acrobatically to keep the clean sheet intact. Within two minutes, on the hour mark, Forss smacked in his fourth and Brentford’s sixth off the crossbar courtesy of Mads Roerslev’s cross. Brentford made their own triple substitution with twenty minutes to go. By now the crowd were shouting for a shot at every possible opportunity. Centre-back Charlie Goode obliged from about eight perches out (old British imperial unit of length there to keep government officials happy) and stung Jason Leutwiler’s palms. (He should ditch the yellow top, trust me.) Brentford continued to play with the same pace and purpose, and it was good to watch even though several moves broke down through over-intricacy. It didn’t matter much. A good proportion of the crowd left after the sixth goal and missed the magnificent seventh at the 87-minute mark. Saman Ghoddos floated the ball in for a superb overhead kick from Wissa to round off the evening. You couldn’t really say it was harsh. This game should have finished about 10-1. As I was funnelled by stewards down a hole in the ground post-match, and held in a grumpy crowd with a teasing view of the platform, there was the momentary glimpse and unmistakable sound of a steam train shooting through Kew Bridge Station. It turns out to have been the Flying Scotsman on the way back to London from Salisbury. Given that Brentford’s ground gives you a clear view of Heathrow approaches, that’s trainspotting, planespotting and groundhopping all done in one evening. And they say I should get a life.
Match Pix
None this week.
Ground Pix
I know that there is (or was) a lot of hopper affection for Griffin Park, and it may be an unpopular opinion that this new stadium is a much better spectator experience. I am sure that many hoppers will tick off this ground and take basically the same photographs this season (except maybe for the one with the full moon). The only downside is that I had followed the advised route from the TfL website and arrived at Gunnersbury by Overground. Finding that Gunnersbury was closed for an hour after the final whistle, and that there were no Overground trains stopping, forced me on to the Tube through central London and into some indoor crowded situations that I would not have chosen. If today’s lateral flow test is negative, I got away with this roll of the covid dice. My advice to any other visiting fans is to research your exit route carefully.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 229 matches is here, on this separate page. Today, Green hammers Yellow, and has a clean sheet too. Still not enough to change the league table positions, but just right to take the prediction success rate back to 50%. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Home Win Was the prediction correct? Yes % of correct predictions so far 50% (42 from 84) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! My first priority is to tick off three remaining new Step 2 grounds at Boston United, Gloucester City and York City. Still waiting on a rearranged date for York v Hereford after the recent postponement.