Fine Playoff Margins Yet Again

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Sunday 28 May 2023 at Wembley
Result	Carlisle United 1 Stockport County 1 aet (Carlisle win 5-4 on penalties)
Competition	EFL League Two Promotion Playoff (Fourth Tier)
Hopstats	29th visit to the refurbished Wembley, three were double-headers so 32nd game. Sadly, I have no complete records of my visits (10 approx) to the original Wembley with the Twin Towers.
Context
Stockport finished 4th, four points behind the final automatic promotion spot, and defeated Salford City on penalties in the playoff semi-final. Carlisle were three further points behind in 5th place, and beat Bradford City in order to be here today, overturning a 0-1 first-leg defeat. In the league meetings, Stockport have the edge with a home win and an away draw. For Stockport, this has been their first season back in League Two after their 2011 relegation, which saw them drop to the sixth tier of the pyramid for four seasons. Over the same period, Carlisle reached League One at the end of 2005-6 with a second successive promotion after just one season in the fifth tier and their current spell in League Two started in 2014-15.
In One Sentence
Another typical tightly-contested playoff with the result in doubt right up to the brutal ending of a penalty shootout.
So What?
Carlisle head up to League One and Stockport will, as they say, “go again” in League Two.
Pre-match Pix
A recorded Clive Tyldesley tells us what we can't do as we approach the stadium this year. The lunchtime kickoff meant that pre-match was largely restricted to finding another bit of Bobby Moore to keep your interest. Here is his left ankle, which played such a pivotal role in his exemplary sense of balance as a defender.
Match Report
Stockport are the other Hatters in the league and there was a nice comment in the buildup that yesterday had been the day of the Straw Hatters and the real ones were here today. I hadn’t known about such headgear rivalry before. Not much happened of note in the first quarter of the game except a pre-planned 15th minute of applause in the Carlisle end. This was in memory of Lewis Michael Kirkpatrick, a 15yo who had died after getting into difficulties in the River Eden last weekend. Stockport’s Ben Hinchcliffe was the first of the keepers to be called into action, pushing away a goalbound header by Joe Garner. Then Jon Mellish had a few minutes to forget as he first picked up a yellow card and was then given the unwanted credit for the opening goal. Originally credited in the stadium to Tanto Olaofe, it became clearer on the replay that his intended cross had looped up over Tomas Holy in the Carlisle goal from Mellish’s unlucky deflection. Carlisle responded and just before half-time some dithering in the centre circle by Fraser Horsfall allowed United’s Joel Senior to get away. Horsfall should probably have been yellow-carded for that, but his defensive colleague Akil Wright got back at pace to make a saving tackle. Then Carlisle had another chance in first-half stoppage time as John-Kymani Gordon created space to shoot, but the ball went over the bar. The second half started in similar fashion with Carlisle on the front foot, while Stockport looked dangerous on the break. Some surging direct running from the midfield got the crowd going, but strong Stockport tackling and blocking protected the lead. There is usually an “If Only” moment in these games, and today’s arrived just before the hour mark. Wright should have scored with a header from a set piece to put Stockport two up. Carlisle made a double-substitution and changed formation. I made a note that I thought this would end up as 1-1 or 2-0, something would have to give. We had an end-to-end spell as some of the players began to tire. Carlisle had a decent shout for a penalty and it took a timely intervention by Senior to stop Olaofe from the resulting Stockport breakout. With seven minutes plus stoppage time left, Carlisle created a great shooting chance for Mellish. His effort struck a defender on the line but VAR weren’t supportive of the claims for handball. However, Carlisle did get their equaliser a minute later. Substitute Omari Patrick got himself on the scoresheet with a very calm finish. There could have been another twist in the final minute with a close range block at the other end to complete a chaotic few moments in the six-yard box. So, to extra-time. My notes from the next half-hour are sparse as no-one wanted to make a mistake. In the second added fifteen, both keepers were needed to make a good save each. Holy saved from Jack Stretton and Hinchcliffe somehow pawed a header away (pictured below) as the scores remained level. It seemed inevitable that both keepers would end up centre stage as the need for a penalty shootout was eventually confirmed. Penalty shootouts are, essentially, a lottery. Yes, they are not truly random events, but there is a huge element of fortune involved. The mental strength of players has to be as good as any technical or physical aspect. The record books will show that Ryan Rydel’s kick, the Stockport second, was saved by Holy. They scored three out of four, but Carlisle had scored all of theirs too, so the sequence unfolded with Ryan Collar having to score from Stockport’s fifth so as not to end it all right there. He did. So Taylor Charters could still win it for Carlisle with their fifth. He did, sending Hinchcliffe the wrong way as his shot went to the left corner. The stadium, as it does on such occasions, divided. Joy and pain. There were very few Stockport fans left in the seats by the time the interminable formal presentations were under way. At least some would have been on their way to empty the local stores of after-sun cream. For this passing neutral, the playoff addiction remains. A Yorkshire battle coming up next with a place in the Championship at stake.
Match Pix
Stockport in blue. Wembley Stadium ought, in my view, to be clearer in their advice to spectators about the likelihood of sustained direct sunlight in a given seating position. I’ve been here many times now and know that the south-west corner is always in the shade, and that the upper tiers are more likely to be in the shade than the lower. But if you are in lower north (especially for lunchtime kickoffs) or lower east you are going to get fried in undiminished sunshine for two hours. For playoff and lower league games, there’s a higher chance that spectators will be infrequent or even first-time visitors. The apparent trajectory of the sun (or the earth’s rotation if you are pedantic) might even be part of the reason why a rumour started about a lucky and unlucky end when the place was first refurbished.       The shootout pix are Stockport's first and fifth, and then the winning moment for Carlisle.
Post-Match Pix
Post-Match Entertainment
An attempt to walk back to West Hampstead was abandoned because the route through an industrial estate and alongside the North Circular was just too dusty and unpleasant. So I took the Tube from Dollis Hill into central London and walked from Westminster to Blackfriars to get my daily total back up to around five miles again before picking up the train back to Hertfordshire.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable test of statistical significance, it looks like an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test will be appropriate. The full keeper top performance table from my last 281 matches is here, on this separate page, and I’ll organise the test when we reach 300 pieces of evidence. Today, I made an early call to predict the penalty shootout when both keepers turned up in Green. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Draw & Penalties Was the prediction correct? Yes % of correct predictions so far 48% (65 from 136)
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! Back to Wembley yet again shortly for the League One playoff between Barnsley & Sheffield Wednesday.