The Cup Run Is Over

 

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Monday 1 May 2023 at The Emirates Stadium
Result	Arsenal 2 VfL Wolfsburg 3 (4-5 on aggregate)
Competition	Women’s Champions League Semi-Final 2nd Leg
Hopstats	Second visit here in a week, fourth altogether.
Context
The tie stands at 2-2 on aggregate, with Arsenal coming back from 2-0 down to get the draw. The match is a sellout and will be the highest crowd for a women’s club game in England. (Edit: It was 60,063.) The main issue facing the home side is the loss through injury of Leah Williamson, Beth Mead, Kim Little, Caitlin Foord and Vivianne Miedema, while Wolfsburg have their star striker Alexandra Popp back for the second leg. Arsenal got here with an excellent quarter-final victory over Bayern Munich and they had bossed their group stage including demolitions of holders Lyon and FC Zurich.
In One Sentence
The result was decided just before the end of extra-time when a defensive error allowed Pauline Bremer to grab a dramatic winning goal for the German side.
So What?
Wolfsburg will play Barcelona in the Final. The latter have recently narrowly beaten Chelsea. The English sides will resume their pursuit of Manchester United for the league title.
Pre-match Entertainment
I started the day at Dial Square in Woolwich, the place where the Woolwich Arsenal football club was formed. I walked the Thames Path through Charlton, past the Faraday Works and the Thames Barrier, to Greenwich and the Cutty Sark, before taking the foot tunnel under the river to Docklands and then Canary Wharf. At that point a mixture of time pressure and developing foot blisters meant that I took public transport the rest of the way.   No Gunners to be found in Dial Square this morning Some photos from the rest of the walk are below.
Match Report
As this game has received substantial coverage already, I’ll be brief and impressionistic. This was a great occasion and I feel privileged to have been there. I had a seat high in the stands with no real view of the big screens, and when VAR was triggered very early on (the first one I have experienced live) I can understand why so many people are frustrated with it. The first one checked and rejected a penalty claim for handball against Arsenal defender Jennifer Beattie. The second one confirmed the opening goal, scored for Arsenal by Stina Blackstenius after a defensive mix-up. The equaliser before half-time was not a surprise, Jill Roord (once of Arsenal) was the scorer with the assist from Alexandra Popp. The second half started with Arsenal on the front foot and Blackstenius had the ball in the net only for VAR to find in favour of the Germans this time. Popp’s glancing header from a set piece gave them the lead, but all credit to Arsenal who, having seen their sub Laura Wienroither stretchered off to join the injury list, levelled through Beattie’s header with 15 minutes to go. Both sides had their chances to win it in extra time. Keepers Manuela Zinsberger and Merle Frohms didn’t do much wrong. Frida Maanum deserves a mention in the home midfield. A cross by Katie McCabe clipped the bar, but Wolfsburg should have scored just before that. As we headed towards penalties, an error by the otherwise excellent Lotte Wubben-Moy let in Wolfsburg and close-range tap in for Pauline Bremer. Arsenal removed Beattie and sent Michelle Agyemang up front for a few frantic final minutes but Wolfsburg held on for an impressive victory. Insert your own sentence about fine margins here.
Match & Ground Pix
Not too many ground pix, but see previous post from the FA Youth Cup final for more.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 270 matches is here, on this separate page. Today, Grey loses to Black. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Home Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 44% (55 from Z125) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! A trip to see Manchester United v Tottenham in the Women’s Super League is in the diary for next weekend, followed by a couple of Wembley trips for the Women’s FA Cup Final and Non-League Finals Day.
Photos: Woolwich Arsenal to Arsenal via Greenwich
1) The Woolwich Arsenal 2) Heading towards the Thames 3) The Woolwich Ferry 4) The derelict Faraday Works, Charlton 5) The Thames Barrier 6) London Skyline 7) Greenwich 8) Greenwich Foot Tunnel 9) The Space, Westferry (former church, now a theatre)