Hatters Tipped For Great Things

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 27 May 2023 at Wembley
Result	Coventry City 1 Luton Town 1 aet (Luton Town win 6-5 on penalties)
Competition	EFL Championship Promotion Playoff (Second Tier)
Hopstats	28th visit to the refurbished Wembley, three were double-headers so 31st game. Sadly, I have no complete records of my visits (10 approx) to the original Wembley with the Twin Towers.
Context
This game is well-known for its economic importance to the two clubs. The winner will join the Premier League, the loser will stay in the Championship. Luton finished 3rd in the division, 11 points away from one of the automatic promotion slots. Coventry were another 10 points behind, in 5th place, In the play-off finals they saw off Sunderland and Middlesbrough respectively. I think it is fair to say that these two sides have playing budgets that are among the lowest in the division, but managers Rob Edwards (Luton) and Mark Robins (Coventry) have created entertaining and resilient sides. Both league games ended in draws, so this should be another tight game. In relatively recent times Coventry have been forced out of their stadium for periods of groundsharing, and Luton had to take a 30-point deduction that ultimately sent them into the fifth tier Conference.
In One Sentence
Coventry clawed their way back into the game after a disappointing first half showing, only to be defeated in the most brutal way possible, 6-5 on penalties.
So What?
Luton Town return to the top tier after a gap of 31 seasons, making the four jumps from Conference to Premier League in 2013-14, 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2022-23.
Pre-match Entertainment
A walk that I’ve done before, leaving the Yappmobile at the end of the Metropolitan Line in Watford, getting the Tube to Harrow-on-the-Hill, and walking the rest of the way including through Harrow School, which is a completely different educational world from the one in which I’ve been all my working life.   This blog has published many pictures of Wembley Stadium in the past. We are now down to fine detail, and this year we are focusing on Bobby Moore. Here is his left ear, which I think we will all agree is one of the finest left ears to have graced the game. Even his inferior crus was pretty good.
Match Report
Luton started well with Coventry looking nervous. They had the ball in the net when Gabe Osho flicked on Tom Lockyer’s header but he was marginally offside. There was then a long stoppage for an injury to Lockyer, who was stretchered off. It didn’t seem to disturb Luton too much as they nearly took the lead with a mixup between Kyle MacFadzean and keeper Ben Wilson. Carlton Morris hooked the ball just wide of the post. Coventry had not yet arrived as a functioning team at this level. The opening goal came midway through the half and was no surprise. Good work from Elijah Adebayo set up Jordan Clark, whose excellent first touch created the space for him to shoot high into the net. There were to be no more goals before half-time, but there should have been. Luton continued to dominate. The next big chance fell to Adebayo who scooped a loose ball wide of an open net with the defence on the floor. The ball then rebounded into the net off his arm, so this was correctly disallowed. Coventry had one sight of goal just before the break. A cross from the left evaded everyone including keeper Ethan Horvath. Gustavo Hamer’s shot was high and wide, with Amari’I Bell doing just enough to make it difficult for him. So, the interval came after eight minutes of stoppage time. Surely Coventry would turn up for the second half. So it proved. Coventry were almost level on 49 minutes with another rebound as Horvath has a nervous moment, but their goal, just after the hour, was also no surprise. It came from the same left-side channel as Luton’s. Viktor Gyökeres broke clear of his marker and played the ball back to Hamer, who made no mistake with a first-time sidefoot into the bottom right corner. Game on, and all that early dominance counting for nothing. Gyökeres could have given Coventry the lead, but his shot was over the bar. With players tiring, the game entered a frantic few end-to-end minutes before the inevitability of extra time caught up. The influential Hamer was forced off with an injury. Luton might have done better with a free-kick in stoppage time, but it was high and wide. Other than incessant tension, there weren’t many ET highlights to phone home about. Gyökeres had a shot from distance. Clark was booked for diving. A Coventry sub (Kasey Palmer) was subbed. Coventry’s Ben Sheaf made a magnificent sliding tackle in the closing minutes as Luton dominated the last moments. Another goal was disallowed for handball by Joe Taylor as VAR intervened, and you could see from the body language that even some Coventry players hadn’t expected that relief. Penalties, then. What drama. In front of the Luton masses, ten successful penalties from the first-choice takers. Wilson nearly got to Luton’s second, but Taylor’s placement was just too good. Substitute Dan Potts then scored Luton’s sixth, leaving the first sudden-death moment for Coventry’s Fankaty Dabo. I watched from just above the scoreboard as his penalty missed the top right corner. Orange pandemonium erupted around me. Come On You Hatters! What a moment, how much this must mean to everyone here. I’ve been to many playoffs over the years, and this was one of the most dramatic of course. Maybe not the highest quality of pure footballing skill, but the result in doubt until the literal last kick of the match. I must thank Agent R for the invitation to join the Luton faithful today – you know who you are, and your legendary status is assured. Agent W will appear in two blogposts’ time. As I write this, I will have to pause before posting as it is time for me to return to the scene, this time to embed myself among some Cumbrians and find another bit of Bobby Moore. It’s what the end of May is for.
Pre-Match Pix
Match Pix
Post-Match Pix
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable test of statistical significance, it looks like an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test will be appropriate. The full keeper top performance table from my last 280 matches is here, on this separate page, and I’ll organise the test when we reach 300 pieces of evidence. Today the keepers were hard to distinguish looking into the sun from a distance (I was high up in Level 5), and it wasn’t until I managed to get a telephoto shot of the pre-penalties briefing that the purple colour became apparent. Purple beats Black on penalties today. Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Luton Town Win Was the prediction correct? Yes % of correct predictions so far 47% (64 from 135)
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! Next blogpost will be for the League Two playoff between Carlisle United and Stockport County.