Cadbury Win is a Boost but no Picnic as Desborough Flake Out of the Vase

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 1 December 2018 at the Triplex Sports Association Ground, Birmingham
Result	Cadbury Athletic 3 Desborough Town 2
Competition	FA Vase Round 3
Hopstats	Ground 667 on the lifetime list, and I’m here as family commitments require me to be somewhere near Birmingham and West Bromwich.  Delighted to find a Vase game to fit the bill.
Context
Fourth home draw in a row for Cadbury Athletic, and yes, this team has its origins in the local chocolate industry.  They have beaten Wem Town, Henley Town and Heather St John’s to get to this point.  They play league football at Step 6 in the Midland Football League Division One.  Desborough Town, of Step 5 United Counties Premier League, joined the competition with an away win at Worcester City in the second round.  In this world of clichés, league form counts for nothing.
In one sentence
Cadbury Athletic experienced a nervy start, then created a comfortable winning position before giving the visitors a cruel ten minutes of hope at the end.
So what?
Cadbury Athletic are in the draw for Round 4, and Desborough Town aren’t.  They will concentrate, as they say, on the league.  The BBC and Sky pay fortunes for that kind of insight.
Match Report
In the opening minutes, Desborough Town were quicker, sharper and more threatening and it looked like only a matter of time before they asserted their superiority.  They were stopped in their tracks by a fluke goal for the home side.  Cadbury’s number 9, Odane Barnes, who could definitely be described as a “big unit”, held the ball up and played it out to the right flank.  The cross came in, too close to the keeper, but perhaps with a ping of the woodwork also involved, ended up bizarrely in the net.  From the other end of the ground we assumed it had to go down as an own goal.  The Desborough keeper was going to have an eventful afternoon. Desborough resumed their attacking play.  Their Number 11 hit the angle of post and bar, and they forced several corners.  A Cadbury’s centre-back produced a great tackle in the area to stop a Desborough fullback’s surging run from half-way.  Gradually however, Cadbury got more into the game and the teams traded decent chances as the halftime whistle approached.  Desborough had wasted a lot of very decent approach play. Barnes had earned a booking and did not reappear for the second half.  The substitute Stuart Butcher turned in a low right wing cross to double the home lead after 53 minutes and now the cupset looked possible.  The same player had a clever back-header cleared off the line as Desborough wobbled. With about 15 minutes to go, Cadbury added a third, indirectly from the penalty spot.  The original kick was saved but the rebound was bundled over the line by Brett Fellows.  Even more surprising were the events starting three minutes later.  The visiting keeper wrapped his arms around an attacker in a bearhug and the ref had no choice but to give another penalty.  This one was also saved, along with the rebound, with the help of the crossbar.  Desborough were not dead yet, and on 82 minutes were given hope by a straight red card for another Cadbury substitute after a mistimed tackle.  At least one other Cadbury player was by now struggling with cramp. Desborough’s first goal followed almost immediately, a powerful shot from about 20 yards, but the second was not until the second minute of stoppage time.  Then there was an agonising wait of about twenty seconds after the restart, before the final whistle confirmed a notable home victory.  Great stuff for the passing neutrals, this time including my dad who had joined me for the afternoon.  Thanks to the Cadbury Athletic website for help in confirming scorers.
Pix
The Triplex name refers to a brand from the glassmaking business that had this as their sports ground.  Cadbury Athletic in purple-and-white.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  So far, 168 games included. Today, Green beats Blue but there are no changes in the league table positions. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Away Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 65% (15 from 23) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. P W D L GC CS Pts PPG Red 10.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 11.0 3.0 20.0 2.000 Blue 42.1 19.0 7.0 16.1 60.0 14.0 74.0 1.758 Grey 48.5 23.0 10.0 15.5 79.5 14.0 69.5 1.433 Green 87.0 44.0 11.0 32.0 147.0 22.0 106.0 1.218 Fire Cracker 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 0.667 Maroon 5.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 3.0 0.600 Purple 19.0 8.0 3.0 8.0 41.0 5.0 11.0 0.579 Orange 42.5 13.0 8.0 21.5 80.5 6.0 -3.5 -0.082 Radioactive Bile 21.0 9.0 0.0 12.0 45.0 3.0 -3.0 -0.143 Yellow 33.0 9.0 7.0 17.0 70.0 5.0 -11.0 -0.333 Pink 17.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 35.0 1.0 -10.0 -0.588 Black 6.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 15.0 0.0 -6.0 -1.000 White 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  36 Step 4 grounds are my priority but I may be constrained to be in the Midlands again next week.  Plus, weather interventions start to be a planning issue at this time of the year.  Stand by for last-minute decisions, some of them random or randomish.