Hopstats
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Ground 705 on
the lifetime list and I am here for randomish meteorological reasons. For 3pm
Saturday, as forecast at 3pm on Friday by the Met Office, Bracknell had the
most favourable weather forecast of my five shortlisted grounds. It was less
windy than Chichester, Hullbridge and Ramsgate and warmer than Mangotsfield.
The precipation percentage tie-breaker was not needed.
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I failed to
notice him last time I saw Coggeshall Town (sorry), but this time the
presence of Olly Murs on the visiting staff contingent was given away by his
tracksuit initials and the requests for a photo. He and I watched closely as
the teams warmed up and it is fair to say that the visitors looked
enthusiastic and ready. I’d positioned myself at that end to have the sun
behind me, and I watched Coggeshall attacking towards me in the first half.
The match was
tightly contested in the first quarter, but the first save of note was a one-handed
absolute cracker from home keeper Mark Scott and maybe that was, with hindsight,
the hinge point of the game. Five minutes later, Bracknell were one up. Geoff
Kibaki’s mazy run ended with a composed layoff to Mitchell Parker who buried
it in the roof of the net.
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Kibaki sets up the opener |
They nearly
added a second from a corner and by now they were more or less in control.
Coggeshall were struggling to hold the ball up front and the Bracknell
defence was looking strong and effective – other than a defensive slip which
again needed Scott to make a good save from the chance created. As the first
half drew to a close, Bracknell wasted another chance when Seb Bowerman shot
for the top corner with better options to choose. The visiting defence was
awol for that one and the half-time whistle came with the score remaining at
1-0.
Coggeshall
started the second period brightly enough but the first chance was to
Bracknell, with Dan Carr’s flick drifting just wide. The second goal was
timed at 49th minute, and was scored by Carr with a flick at the
far post after a right wing corner.
With the
two-goal margin, Bracknell managed the game perfectly well with defensive
solidarity until the 74th minute and keeper Scott’s straight red
card. I was the closest spectator to the collision, and here’s what I can tell
you. Scott definitely put his knee upwards just before the contact in a way
that cannot be justified. The Coggeshall player asked the ref, “How was that
not a foul?” seeming to suggest that the ref had initially seen nothing in it
from his position. The assistant was in a better position to see the raised
knee, and after consultation, a straight red was waved and a penalty awarded.
For what it is worth, this particular pundit says yes to foul, yes to penalty.
The keeper was always favourite to get the ball so I do not think a clear
goalscoring opportunity was denied. Whether it was a yellow or a red card
presumably depends on the dangerous play judgement. I was expecting to see
yellow when the ref’s hand went to his pocket. There was plenty of dissent.
This included some from me when the substitution was made and sent on a
keeper in a different coloured shirt. Not the first time it has happened in
the last 206 games I have watched, but annoying nevertheless and a
spreadsheet messer-upperer if ever there was one.
Replacement
Joe Whiter got his hand to the ball, but the ball spun away so Nnamdi Nwachuku’s penalty kick
rolled gently over the line into the far corner. With tempers now frayed, we had some unseemly
scuffling at the other end, but I can’t really comment on cause and effect
from where I was. There were a few more yellows. There's a Bracknell/handbags joke in here somewhere for readers who think it's important to be earnest.
As we entered stoppage time,
our hearts skipped a beat as a Bracknell defender was in right place, right
time to make a goal-line clearance. Olly knows about these things. In the
end, it was that close. Whiter got himself a deserved yellow for timewasting,
and a grown-up (kind of) member of the home support entertained himself and
some of his mates by loudly and comedically stalking the assistant up and
down the touchline for the final few minutes. Credit to the assistant for not
rising to the bait, and maybe he will hang up his flags on Monday. That’ll be
one fewer on the available roster. Is that a home win too?
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New this season – a pre-match
prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the
data. Proper statistical significance
test to follow in due course.
Today, as originally predicted, Green
beats Yellow despite the late splash of Orange. The replacement keeper was
wearing a different colour to the starting custodian, causing further
spreadsheet messiness.
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Both keepers were captains today. |
Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper
Top Colour:
Prediction:
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Home Win
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Was the
prediction correct?
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Yes
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% of
correct predictions so far
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32 of 61
(52%)
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Full
#keepertopcolourstats league table now has its own page here:
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