Saturday 27 April 2019

Cinderford, You Will Go to the Playoffs





This is an e-programme.  I’m not a diehard traditionalist over this, but I have no permanent official souvenir of my visit because this is not downloadable as one document as far as I can, and home printing is impractical and expensive.  I think that if we are to move towards e-programmes then they at least ought to be made available in the .pdf format rather than as a whole series of jpgs.

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 27 April 2018 at The Causeway
Result
Cinderford Town 0 Winchester City 0
Competition
Southern League Division One South (Step 4)
Hopstats
Ground 699 on the lifetime list and I am here non-randomly because of the importance of the fixture.
Context
It’s the last league game of the regular season. Cinderford sit in the final playoff position but only a point ahead.  Winchester will displace them with a win today, but only a win will do.
In one sentence
A forgettable first half was followed by forty-three largely forgettable minutes of a second half and two minutes plus stoppage time of chaotic tragedy or triumph, depending on your allegiance.
So what?
Cinderford are away at Cirencester Town in the divisional playoff semi-finals.
Match Report
The match was played in blustery conditions on a good surface.  Visiting fans had welcomed the team with a large number of identical face masks, but I’m not sure what that was about.  It was tense and quiet as the match kicked off.  Players were taking no chances and the ball was swirling in the air for much of the time.  Cinderford’s number 5 Andy Lewis was making headed clearances every 30 seconds or so at one point.  To be honest, it was technically disappointing as a match spectacle, but the gusty wind played a big part in making the players nervous and edgy.  Nothing much happened in the first half-hour except a defensive stalemate.  Winchester managed a header on target after 35 minutes, but it was easily saved.  Simba Mlambo then beat his opponent and sent in a good cross, eventually leading to a Winchester shot clipping the post, and maybe the flag was up anyway. We all hoped for better in the second half.

To an extent it was indeed better to watch. Both teams upped the tempo, and there was more of a sense of urgency.  However, the real chances were again few and far between.  Cinderford sometimes committed five players into the box and left themselves vulnerable on the break, but still neither side created a golden chance.  With just under fifteen minutes to go, the wind almost created a comedy goal for Cinderford as a wayward cross was blown back into the danger area, but the danger was averted.

Finally, the pattern was broken, along with Winchester hearts. With 88 minutes on the clock, Winchester finally had enough men forward in the right places at the right time and a thunderous shot hit the post and bounced clear across the face of the goal.  Their keeper Ryan Price then joined the attack for a series of chaotic corners as the game went into stoppage time.  Eventually the whistle blew to unleash Cinderford celebration, and several Winchester players fell to the ground in disbelief.  There was more drama in those last few minutes than in the rest of the game put together.  This is why I am all in favour of playoffs – without them this would have been just another complete-the-grid end of season fixture with no meaning.  Condolences to the visitors, and best of luck to the hosts, who will need to play better to win their semi-final.
Pix
Cinderford in black and white.  The ground has clearly needed some make-do-and-mend adjustments as the club has come up to Step 4.  It is quirky, somewhat crumbling, and lovable for it, but you can understand why there is a substantial display in the clubhouse of the plans for a new community facility.  I watched the game from an unusually low position, sheltering from the wind in a stand which meant that my feet were several feet below the pitch level.  Imagine the front row at The Dell, Southampton’s previous home.



















Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.

A draw and a clean sheet each for Purple and Yellow, enough to take Purple up a couple of places in the table, now based on the last 200 matches seen.

Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Home Win
Was the prediction correct?
No
% of correct predictions so far
55% (30 from 55)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by half-and-half tops or sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.


P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
11.5
6.5
1.0
4.0
11.0
4.5
32.0
2.783
Grey
53.5
25.0
12.0
16.5
84.5
16.0
82.5
1.542
Blue
48.1
22.0
7.0
19.1
77.0
14.0
66.0
1.372
Green
110.0
55.0
12.0
43.0
191.0
25.0
111.0
1.009
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Purple
22.0
8.0
5.0
9.0
45.0
6.0
14.0
0.636
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Orange
58.5
21.0
12.0
25.5
101.5
11.0
28.5
0.487
Radioactive Bile
24.0
9.0
1.0
14.0
51.0
4.0
-3.0
-0.125
Black
6.5
2.5
3.0
1.0
15.0
0.5
-2.0
-0.308
Yellow
38.0
9.0
9.0
20.0
85.0
7.0
-14.0
-0.368
Pink
18.0
5.0
5.0
8.0
37.0
1.0
-12.0
-0.667
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  A cricketing diversion at Trent Bridge tomorrow, and ground 700 all being well next week!


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