Rams Go Down to Adversarial Widnes

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 2 March 2019 at The Harry Williams Riverside Stadium
Result	Ramsbottom United 0 Widnes 1
Competition	Northern Premier League Division One West (Step 4)
Hopstats	Ground 681 on the lifetime list and I am here random(ish)ly because West Brom failed to score against Leeds United last night.  My twelve shortlisted games had been linked randomly to the ten starting outfield players, leaving one to be linked to the substitutes and this one for the possibility of either no goals or only own goals in favour of West Brom.  All is explained in the previous blogpost and the evidence trail is on Twitter too.  For example, if Hal Robson-Kanu had scored a late consolation goal, then this post would be coming to you from Street v Evesham United.
Context
Ramsbottom lost at home to Colne in midweek but had been in good form before that, winning five games on the bounce without conceding a goal.  In contrast, Widnes did not win a point during February although they are comfortable in mid-table.
In one sentence
A classic smash-and-grab away win for Widnes, but the home supporters will be frustrated by Rammy’s wasted chances.
So what?
Ramsbottom drop out of the playoff zone into sixth place, and Widnes are twelfth.
Match Report
I’d set off early from the south in order to choose a scenic route up through Chesterfield and Hathersage in Derbyshire, entering Lancashire from the east via the Snake Pass and Glossop.  Wonderful stuff, England looking very good and no hard borders anywhere to be seen. I made relatively few notes in a keenly contested first half.  That’s not to say I was bored, it was more that the defences were on top and both keepers were only engaged in routine catches and clearances.  The match was played at a high tempo, with both sides looking to get forward in a direct style, but Ramsbottom certainly had the lion’s share of possession.  The general pattern was that the home side’s high defensive line meant that they got the ball back quickly when Widnes tried to break.  Rammy’s supporters were showing patience at this stage, firmly believing that it was only a matter of time before a goal would be scored.  Widnes were strong enough defensively and could have taken the lead with either of two chances in quick succession just before half time which were as clear as anything the Rams had produced, but the whistle came with the score still nil-nil.  My 76th minute Golden Goal ticket had increased in value. At the hour mark I made a note to the effect of “just the same” as the game settled back into the same pattern.  I was now thinking that for once in these matters my first-goal ticket might not be a worthless scrap.  The home supporters were beginning to get restless, not unreasonably, as tiredness (perhaps) began to lead to poor decision-making.  The game’s only goal came just two minutes too early for me, but there was an element of gift-wrapping about it.  Rammy had at least two chances to clear the ball before it fell to Ben Hodkinson, who kept his composure and gave the keeper no chance. Stung into more desperate action, the Rams will point to a header off the line and then a stunning defensive block on the line by Widnes’ Sam Sheen in stoppage time to protect the points.  At all levels of this game, you have to take your chances, and this was a classic smash-and-grab away win.
Pix
Fabulous ground and location, should be high on every groundhopper’s list.  Check the timetable of the East Lancs Railway and come on a steaming day for bonus trainspotting.  Right next to the cricket club too.  Ramsbottom in blue.  BR Standard Class 4mt 2-6-4T #80097 chuffing by during the first half A big bluey-green Diesel thing passing by later on
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  The table below is compiled from my last 182 games. Today, Green unexpectedly loses to Orange.  The clean sheet helps to close the gap on Purple but there are no changes in position.  The overall prediction success rate is now, at 62%, as low as it has ever been. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Home Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 62% (23 from 37) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by half-and-half tops or sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. P W D L GC CS Pts PPG Red 10.5 5.5 1.0 4.0 11.0 3.5 24.0 2.286 Grey 50.5 24.0 11.0 15.5 80.5 15.0 77.5 1.535 Blue 45.1 20.0 7.0 18.1 69.0 14.0 68.0 1.508 Green 97.0 50.0 12.0 35.0 162.0 23.0 115.0 1.186 Fire Cracker 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 0.667 Maroon 5.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 3.0 0.600 Purple 21.0 8.0 4.0 9.0 45.0 5.0 8.0 0.381 Orange 47.5 16.0 9.0 22.5 86.5 8.0 10.5 0.221 Black 6.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 15.0 0.5 -2.0 -0.308 Radioactive Bile 23.0 9.0 0.0 14.0 51.0 3.0 -9.0 -0.391 Yellow 35.0 9.0 7.0 19.0 77.0 5.0 -18.0 -0.514 Pink 18.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 37.0 1.0 -12.0 -0.667 White 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  I’ll be at the Northwest Counties Hop next weekend, for the third in a row in that part of the nation.