Czechs and Balances

This is randomish.  In the absence of alternative entertainment, I’m going to watch the England game tonight.  I’ve linked seven events with an approximate probability of 12.5% (at least according to a leading bookmaker an hour before kickoff) with eight different Step 4 matches taking place tomorrow.  They all have odds of around 8/1 against, in the range 7/1 to 9/1.  This leaves one space for a “catchall”, which is that none of those seven events have occurred.

If more than one of these events takes place, then a truly random second-stage event will take place (such as the toss of a coin) to determine my destination.

Event	Linked to …
The scores are level at both HT AND FT Er, no	Brighouse Town v Morpeth Town
James Ward-Prowse scores the last England goal of the game No, didn't get on from the bench	Clitheroe v Glossop North End
Kieron Trippier scores for England at any time No, likewise	Pickering Town v Stamford
Lukas Masopust scores for the Czech Republic at any time No, came on but didn't score	Pontefract Collieries v Frickley Athletic
Both teams hit the woodwork No, not a ping	Radcliffe v Runcorn Linnets
There are over 5.5 goals in the game No, just the five	Ramsgate v Phoenix Sports
England win both halves AND Harry Kane scores at least two personally Yes and No, so No	Sevenoaks Town v Greenwich Borough
The catchall outcome – none of the above have happened	Whyteleafe v Whitstable

As things stand at kickoff, it would be a trip to Brighouse.  But as anyone who has followed my Friday nights will know, that will change. It might even be described as exciting.  If you are the excitable type.  Stand by for an update at the end of the game.

How it unfolded:

0-24 min: No goals, so would make it level at both HT and FT and I'm going to Brighouse.

24-45 min: Sterling's goal actually would mean "none of the above" at the moment, so a trip to Whyteleafe takes over.

45-45+1 min: Kane's penalty secures a HT lead for England so Brighouse is the first destination to be ruled out entirely.  The goal is a big step towards Sevenoaks but it would need another Kane goal in a winning half to seal the deal.  So at half-time, we remain in the "none of the above" category and the trip to Whyteleafe remains on the table.

61 min: Sterling's second goal does not displace Whyteleafe, but arguably Ramsgate and Sevenoaks close the gap.  Would need three more goals (from anyone) and another Kane goal, respectively.

67 min: Masopust comes on for the Czechs, so Pontefract Collieries are in the game if he scores.

68 min: Sterling completes his hat-trick. England will almost certainly win the second half so another Kane goal means Sevenoaks.  Only two more now from anyone to change the destination to Ramsgate.  However, Whyteleafe holding on.

70 min: Callum Hudson-Odoi comes on for England, so we will not be seeing either Ward-Prowse or Trippier, thus Clitheroe and Pickering will have to wait for another day. Five out of eight possibilities still alive.

84 min: England's 5th goal is an own goal.  One more switches me to Ramsgate, unless it's scored by Kane, in which case we have a toss-up between Ramsgate and Sevenoaks.

Final whistle:  outcomes summarised in the table above.  Despite all the action, Whyteleafe held on since the 24th minute.  Thanks for your interest - it's randomish.

Image Credits:

England: https://ya-webdesign.com/download.html

Czech Republic: By Source, Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=49661605