Saturday, 22 September 2018

Steelmen at the Next Stratos-Ferric Level


It’s an online programme.  Here’s the link and a picture of the front cover on my PC screen.  Have mixed feelings about this.  Completely understand why this is happening, but printing it out for the collection will be a pain.



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 22 September 2018 at Lye Meadow
Result
Alvechurch 1 Corby Town 4
Competition
FA Cup 2nd Qualifying Round.  Two Southern League teams – Step 3 (Premier Central) at home to Step 4 (Division One Central.)
Hopstats
656 on the lifetime list.  Here because this is the penultimate ground that I need to visit for Step 3.  A kind FA Cup draw had given me the chance to see Alvechurch at home today.
Context
Alvechurch beat neighbours Bromsgrove Sporting 4-3 and then won 1-0 at Stratford Town in the previous rounds, and are mid-table in the league.  Corby Town beat Dunstable Town 4-0 away after a 3-3 draw, and then Hertford Town 2-0.  They are also unbeaten in their league.
In one sentence
Two well-taken goals early in the second half killed off any Alvechurch hope of a comeback.
So what?
Corby Town take the £9000 prize money for the round and are of course in the draw for the next round.
Match Report
A Corby contingent were already in good voice in the bar as I arrived, and they remained so as home keeper Paul Evans gifted them the lead.  The scorer was Joel Carta.  At the other end, counterpart keeper Dan George also had a couple of dodgy moments with clearances and chargedowns, but he got away with them.

This was an open game.  Corby played a high defensive line and occasionally found themselves chasing attackers who had timed their run perfectly.  They also looked a bit vague at corners, and it was no real surprise when Alvechurch equalised through Kieron Cook.  He had time to steady himself at the edge of the area before firing a low shot into the corner.

However, the switch of momentum didn’t materialise and before half-time Carta scored again for Corby to restore the lead, with a low shot into the corner from the edge of the area.

One imagined forthright words and finger-pointing in the home teamtalk at the interval, but if there were, they didn’t work this time.  Corby went 4-1 uip through two good goals, indirectly from set pieces.  A volley from Carta for his hat-trick goal, followed by a half-volley from Jamie Anton, removed any lingering hopes of a comeback.

Carta completes the hat-trick
Alvechurch never gave up.  Josh March had a chance, but it was saved by the feet of George.  A shot was deflected just over, while Corby also wasted their best one-to-one chance on a break.  Alvechurch were denied a late consolation goal by a clearance off the line, but they can’t really complain about this result.  The better team won on the day.
Pix
This is a ground with a distinct slope, and is deserving of a daylight visit because of its gorgeous rural setting.  Alvechurch in yellow-and-black.
  















Rant
I almost didn’t get there.  Setting off from Hertfordshire in late morning I first encountered issues on the M1 Northbound.  I made it with just fifteen minutes to spare, having had comedy moments at Northamptonshire roundabouts where Doris the Satnav was saying turn left and the Google Maps Lady was saying turn right.  The Google Maps Lady was also draining my mobile faster than the Corby fans drained the Alvechurch bar, so my phone was long dead before Doris failed to recall that the A5 is currently impassable at Towcester on the journey home.  At the third attempt I found a road headed in the right direction only to encounter two more holdups on the M1 Southbound.  Don’t get me started about the state of Newport Pagnell services.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.





This week, Pink loses to Green but no clean sheet for either.  No change in league positions, now based on my last 157 games.

Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Away Win
Was the prediction correct?
Yes
% of correct predictions so far
75% (9 from 12)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.  It may not be statistically significant as yet, but football coverage ignores this point as a matter of routine.


P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
10.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
11.0
3.0
20.0
2.000
Blue
39.1
17.0
7.0
15.1
55.0
14.0
73.0
1.867
Grey
47.5
22.0
10.0
15.5
79.5
13.0
61.5
1.295
Green
83.0
42.0
10.0
31.0
139.0
21.0
102.0
1.229
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Purple
17.0
7.0
3.0
7.0
38.0
4.0
6.0
0.353
Radioactive Bile
19.0
9.0
0.0
10.0
37.0
3.0
5.0
0.263
Orange
35.5
11.0
7.0
17.5
63.5
6.0
6.5
0.183
Yellow
31.0
8.0
7.0
16.0
65.0
5.0
-9.0
-0.290
Pink
17.0
5.0
5.0
7.0
35.0
1.0
-10.0
-0.588
Black
5.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
14.0
0.0
-8.0
-1.600
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  All being well, I complete “The 248” (meaning everywhere in England from Premier League to Step 3) next Saturday at Bamber Bridge v Stafford Rangers.


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