Saturday, 8 September 2018

Dorking Day for the Man Fan



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 8 September 2018 at Meadowbank Football Ground
Result
Dorking Wanderers 2 Hartley Wintney 0
Competition
FA Cup First Qualifying Round
Hopstats
Number 654 on the lifetime list. I am here because I found a sequence of fixtures in September that should allow me to complete “The 248” (seeing a game everywhere in the top seven tiers of English football).
Context
As Step 3 sides, these clubs enter the competition at this stage.  Dorking Wanderers are 7th in the Isthmian Premier and this is their first season at their smart new home, complete with state-of-the-art artificial playing surface.  Hartley Wintney are 8th in their first season at this level, in the Southern League Premier South.  The blogpost title will make sense if you are familiar with Horse Badorties, the hippy hero of William Kotzwinkle's 1974 novel.
In one sentence
Wanderers scored the opening goal in first-half stoppage time, and needed a strong defensive performance thereafter before they could add a late second goal.
So what?
Dorking Wanderers take the £6000 prize money and go into the proverbial hat for the next round draw.
Match Report
The first half was dominated by Dorking Wanderers but it took until stoppage time for the first goal.  Visiting keeper Paul Strudley was competent and busy.  He blocked one really good chance with his leg midway through the half, and watched several times more as the ball flashed across the goalmouth.  He then had to dive at the feet of James McShane after good work near the corner flag by Sam Beard.

With half-an-hour gone, we saw the first real chance for Hartley Wintney, but Slavomir Huk dived to his left to save the shot, and then striker Michael Campbell, through one-on-one, could have done better.  The visitors would not have too many more chances as things turned out.

Strudley needed defensive help to bundle the ball off the line after Dorking had once again reached the byeline behind the visiting defence.  Then came the goal – a long throw-in, two central defenders up from the back and challenging, and a kind drop for Matt Briggs who could not miss from close range.  Definitely deserved on balance of first-half play, but a sickener for the visitors.

Hartley Wintney started the second half strongly, and they got the ball forward quicker and more directly.  Wanderers themselves also looked dangerous on the break, especially when the visitors committed players forward.  Strudley made another good save just after the hour.  Hartley Wintney had plenty of the ball, but Wanderers were strong in defence and there were relatively few clear chances.

The game was settled in the 79th minute.  A good move down the left created a chance for Tom Richards, who curled a shot into the far corner.  Dorking will feel that this was a really good, hard-earned win against opponents who put up a good fight.

Pix
Dorking Wanderers in red and white shirts.  This is a smart new ground with excellent facilities.  There is provision for healthy eating but it’s no good asking me about that as you well know. 


















Pre-Match Entertainment
A drive up to the top of Box Hill and a saunter round this National Trust site, designated for Outstanding Natural Beauty. 





Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.

Today, Radioactive Bile lined up against Purple and took the win and a clean sheet, defying the pre-match prediction.  The table is based on my last 155 games.


Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Away Win
Was the prediction correct?
No
% of correct predictions so far
70% (7 from 10)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.  It may not be statistically significant as yet, but football coverage ignores this point as a matter of routine.


P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
10.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
11.0
3.0
20.0
2.000
Blue
38.1
16.0
7.0
15.1
54.0
14.0
71.0
1.864
Grey
47.5
22.0
10.0
15.5
79.5
13.0
61.5
1.295
Green
81.0
41.0
10.0
30.0
135.0
21.0
103.0
1.272
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Purple
17.0
7.0
3.0
7.0
38.0
4.0
6.0
0.353
Radioactive Bile
19.0
9.0
0.0
10.0
37.0
3.0
5.0
0.263
Orange
35.5
11.0
7.0
17.5
63.5
6.0
6.5
0.183
Yellow
31.0
8.0
7.0
16.0
65.0
5.0
-9.0
-0.290
Pink
16.0
5.0
5.0
6.0
31.0
1.0
-6.0
-0.375
Black
5.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
14.0
0.0
-8.0
-1.600
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  The provisional plan is to go to Scarborough Athletic v Basford United next weekend, and then Alvechurch and Bamber Bridge on the other two Saturdays in September.  This will need the luck of the draw for the Second Qualifying Round of the FA Cup on 22nd.  Otherwise it will be an evening trip to Alvechurch on 18th and Bamber Bridge on the 29th.  Clearer than the UEFA Nations League.


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