Saturday, 29 August 2015
Wednesday, 26 August 2015
Horses for Causation
Yesterday's Modus Hopper Racing experience at Newbury has inspired me to find a new way of making life decisions. I found a long list of racehorses and have linked them to a long list of matches. The winning horse in each race will in effect add the linked match to my Saturday shortlist. Then we will need a way of choosing from the shortlist, but by then the entire nation will be following. Well done for being here first and humouring me.
How the horses were selected:
There are 79 horses on the race card at Lingfield today. I chose Lingfield simply because it is an all-weather track. Some copy-and-paste into Excel shenanigans were involved before the clip starts.
How the matches were selected:
More copy-and-paste manipulation gave me the list of games. All are FA Cup ties at grounds that I have not visited before, from Steps 4-6. (I say 4&5 on the video clip below, but that was a slip of the tongue). The list has all the unvisited Step 4s and 6s in the draw, and an arbitrary selection of Step 5s to make up the numbers. I dropped a few games where Step 5 sides are at home to Step 6 sides to make the total add to 78. I needed one more and it seemed appropriate that it should be at Newmarket Town.
How the horses were randomly linked to the matches:
Here's the proof ...
I've sorted the sheet and tidied up the presentation here into race groups. The odds are indicative and could change, but Brockenhurst are the current favourites to be first on to the Saturday shortlist and Whitstable are now randomly rank outsiders. I will end up with a shortlist of eight "winners", which can be sorted out tomorrow! South Normanton Athletic, AFC Goole and Brimscombe & Thrupp are already out of the picture as their horses have been declared non-runners. Updates to follow at the end of the day!
1.50 LINGFIELD
2.20 LINGFIELD
2.50 LINGFIELD
3.20 LINGFIELD
3.50 LINGFIELD
4.20 LINGFIELD
4.55 LINGFIELD
5.25 LINGFIELD
1st Landwade Lad 11/2
2nd Soluble
3rd Twitch
Cloud Seven was the unplaced favourite
... so I wlll be heading for the Isle of Wight for the first time since my teenage years for Cowes Sports v Wimborne Town.
It's random.
How the horses were selected:
There are 79 horses on the race card at Lingfield today. I chose Lingfield simply because it is an all-weather track. Some copy-and-paste into Excel shenanigans were involved before the clip starts.
How the matches were selected:
More copy-and-paste manipulation gave me the list of games. All are FA Cup ties at grounds that I have not visited before, from Steps 4-6. (I say 4&5 on the video clip below, but that was a slip of the tongue). The list has all the unvisited Step 4s and 6s in the draw, and an arbitrary selection of Step 5s to make up the numbers. I dropped a few games where Step 5 sides are at home to Step 6 sides to make the total add to 78. I needed one more and it seemed appropriate that it should be at Newmarket Town.
How the horses were randomly linked to the matches:
Here's the proof ...
I've sorted the sheet and tidied up the presentation here into race groups. The odds are indicative and could change, but Brockenhurst are the current favourites to be first on to the Saturday shortlist and Whitstable are now randomly rank outsiders. I will end up with a shortlist of eight "winners", which can be sorted out tomorrow! South Normanton Athletic, AFC Goole and Brimscombe & Thrupp are already out of the picture as their horses have been declared non-runners. Updates to follow at the end of the day!
1.50 LINGFIELD
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
BEXHILL UNITED
|
v
|
FAVERSHAM TOWN
|
1(5)
|
Let There Be Light
|
3/1
|
BRIGHOUSE TOWN
|
v
|
ATHERTON COLLIERIES
|
2(6)
|
Rampers (IRE)
|
4/1
|
CRAY VALLEY (PM)
|
v
|
HASTINGS UNITED
|
3(2)
|
Harmony Bay (IRE)
|
20/1
|
RUNCORN LINNETS
|
v
|
PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES
|
4(8)
|
Last Star Falling (IRE)
|
16/1
|
BARTON TOWN OLD BOYS
|
v
|
DROYLSDEN
|
5(3)
|
Ettie Hart (IRE)
|
5/1
|
BROCKENHURST
|
v
|
YATE TOWN
|
6(7)
|
Matilda's Law
|
7/4
|
WHITSTABLE TOWN
|
v
|
WALTON CASUALS
|
7(1)
|
Princess One Much (IRE)
|
40/1
|
TADCASTER ALBION
|
v
|
COLNE
|
8(4)
|
Tihana
|
10/1
|
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
LOUGHBOROUGH UNIVERSITY
|
v
|
LONG EATON UNITED
|
1(4)
|
Clap In Time
|
4/1
|
EASTBOURNE TOWN
|
v
|
WHYTELEAFE
|
10(3)
|
Tears In My Eyes (IRE)
|
8/1
|
HARTLEY WINTNEY
|
v
|
BANBURY UNITED
|
11(9)
|
Totzo (IRE)
|
8/1
|
ERITH TOWN
|
v
|
HORSHAM YMCA
|
2(7)
|
Cooperess
|
12/1
|
MONEYFIELDS
|
v
|
PETERSFIELD TOWN
|
3(5)
|
Here's Two
|
33/1
|
HULLBRIDGE SPORTS
|
v
|
MALDON & TIPTREE
|
4(8)
|
I'm Just Saying
|
9/1
|
BLACKFIELD & LANGLEY
|
v
|
BEMERTON HEATH HARLEQUINS
|
5(6)
|
If Winter Comes
|
6/1
|
SOUTH NORMANTON ATHLETIC
|
v
|
LINCOLN UNITED
|
6(10)
|
Peru
|
NR
|
DEEPING RANGERS
|
v
|
DEREHAM TOWN
|
7(1)
|
Regality (IRE)
|
8/1
|
NEWMARKET TOWN
|
v
|
PETERBOROUGH SPORTS
|
8(2)
|
Ruby Wednesday
|
10/1
|
LOUGHBOROUGH DYNAMO
|
v
|
BASFORD UNITED
|
9(11)
|
Shufoog
|
11/4
|
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
BECKENHAM TOWN
|
v
|
GREENWICH BOROUGH
|
1(9)
|
Hajeer (IRE)
|
5/4
|
GUISBOROUGH TOWN
|
v
|
NEWCASTLE BENFIELD
|
2(5)
|
Romancingthestone
|
10/1
|
GOOLE AFC
|
v
|
SHEFFIELD
|
3(6)
|
Salt Lake Sooty
|
NR
|
THETFORD TOWN
|
v
|
BURY TOWN
|
4(2)
|
Intimately
|
9/2
|
HAMWORTHY UNITED
|
v
|
ANDOVER TOWN
|
5(7)
|
Fine Share (IRE)
|
22/1
|
WESTFIELDS
|
v
|
KIDSGROVE ATHLETIC
|
6(4)
|
Brave Archibald (IRE)
|
11/2
|
WROXHAM
|
v
|
FAKENHAM
|
7(1)
|
Royal Mighty
|
8/1
|
ALMONDSBURY UWE
|
v
|
VERWOOD TOWN
|
8(3)
|
Efron (IRE)
|
8/1
|
CONGLETON TOWN
|
v
|
HANDSWORTH PARRAMORE
|
9(8)
|
Simply Clever
|
12/1
|
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
BISHOP AUCKLAND
|
v
|
JARROW ROOFING BOLDON CA
|
1(3)
|
Whaleweigh Station
|
15/2
|
CLIPSTONE
|
v
|
CLEETHORPES TOWN
|
2(8)
|
Showtime Star
|
9/2
|
BRIMSCOMBE & THRUPP
|
v
|
BRACKNELL TOWN
|
3(5)
|
Rufford (IRE)
|
NR
|
RADFORD
|
v
|
SPALDING UNITED
|
4(7)
|
York Glory (USA)
|
11/1
|
ARMTHORPE WELFARE
|
v
|
NEW MILLS
|
5(2)
|
Head Space (IRE)
|
6/1
|
AFC ST AUSTELL
|
v
|
BODMIN TOWN
|
6(1)
|
Drive On (IRE)
|
8/1
|
BRIDPORT
|
v
|
SHERBORNE TOWN
|
7(9)
|
Lead A Merry Dance
|
6/1
|
CARLTON TOWN
|
v
|
SHEPSHED DYNAMO
|
8(4)
|
Dangerous Age
|
11/1
|
WHITTON UNITED
|
v
|
KIRKLEY & PAKEFIELD
|
9(6)
|
Refuse Colette (IRE)
|
9/2
|
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
RAMSGATE
|
v
|
TOOTING & MITCHAM UNITED
|
1(5)
|
All For The Best (IRE)
|
9/4
|
COVE
|
v
|
NORTH LEIGH
|
2(4)
|
Blue Chip
|
11/8
|
WINCHESTER CITY
|
v
|
WINCANTON TOWN
|
3(1)
|
Julieta (IRE)
|
9/2
|
TAUNTON TOWN
|
v
|
ODD DOWN
|
4(3)
|
Concord (IRE)
|
12/1
|
LEICESTER NIRVANA
|
v
|
BELPER TOWN
|
5(2)
|
Lorelei
|
7/1
|
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
AFC PORTCHESTER
|
v
|
AFC TOTTON
|
1(13)
|
Nouvelle Ere
|
14/1
|
NEWTON AYCLIFFE
|
v
|
MORPETH TOWN
|
10(11)
|
Rum Swizzle
|
3/1
|
HARROGATE RAILWAY ATHLETIC
|
v
|
SPENNYMOOR TOWN
|
11(9)
|
Kachou
|
6/4
|
PHOENIX SPORTS
|
v
|
GUERNSEY
|
12(4)
|
Cafe Caprice
|
33/1
|
MARKET DRAYTON TOWN
|
v
|
AFC BRIDGNORTH
|
13(1)
|
Street Art (IRE)
|
33/1
|
SILSDEN AFC
|
v
|
PADIHAM
|
2(8)
|
Osgood
|
10/1
|
SHOREHAM
|
v
|
HORLEY TOWN
|
3(2)
|
Fine Tune (IRE)
|
66/1
|
THATCHAM TOWN
|
v
|
GUILDFORD CITY
|
4(6)
|
Layla's King
|
7/1
|
GLOSSOP NORTH END
|
v
|
PRESCOT CABLES
|
5(12)
|
Mighty Thor
|
66/1
|
ALSAGER TOWN
|
v
|
SHAW LANE AQUAFORCE
|
6(5)
|
Awesome Rock (IRE)
|
12/1
|
DEAL TOWN
|
v
|
HORSHAM
|
7(10)
|
Happy Jack (IRE)
|
10/1
|
CHELTENHAM SARACENS
|
v
|
MILTON UNITED
|
8(3)
|
Sakhra
|
14/1
|
RUNCORN TOWN
|
v
|
NORTHWICH VICTORIA
|
9(7)
|
Wannabe Magic
|
22/1
|
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
WEST AUCKLAND TOWN
|
v
|
WASHINGTON
|
1(2)
|
Lily Edge
|
12/1
|
BRISTOL MANOR FARM
|
v
|
BITTON AFC
|
10(5)
|
Fanny Again
|
10/1
|
RISBOROUGH RANGERS
|
v
|
AYLESBURY
|
11(6)
|
Dainty Daisey (IRE)
|
33/1
|
ABBEY HEY
|
v
|
WARRINGTON TOWN
|
12(3)
|
Katniss (IRE)
|
9/2
|
HOLKER OLD BOYS
|
v
|
DUNSTON UTS
|
2(12)
|
Shirataki (IRE)
|
14/1
|
BARNSTAPLE TOWN
|
v
|
BRIDGWATER TOWN
|
3(7)
|
Hong Kong Joe
|
6/1
|
ASHINGTON
|
v
|
THACKLEY
|
4(11)
|
Everywish
|
20/1
|
FARNHAM TOWN
|
v
|
HIGHWORTH TOWN
|
5(8)
|
Athenian Garden (USA)
|
11/2
|
NORTH SHIELDS
|
v
|
KENDAL TOWN
|
6(9)
|
Ballyheigue (IRE)
|
20/1
|
CHICHESTER CITY
|
v
|
CHATHAM TOWN
|
7(10)
|
San Quentin (IRE)
|
11/2
|
PLYMOUTH PARKWAY
|
v
|
TIVERTON TOWN
|
8(4)
|
Hermosa Vaquera (IRE)
|
4/1
|
AFC BLACKPOOL
|
v
|
OSSETT TOWN
|
9(1)
|
Let's Confer
|
25/1
|
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
#
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
PAGHAM
|
v
|
CORINTHIAN CASUALS
|
1(11)
|
Glennten
|
8/1
|
MILDENHALL TOWN
|
v
|
SOHAM TOWN RANGERS
|
10(12)
|
Izzy Too
|
40/1
|
BROMSGROVE SPORTS
|
v
|
HINCKLEY UNITED
|
11(1)
|
Incantare
|
8/1
|
GREAT WAKERING ROVERS
|
v
|
BRANTHAM ATHLETIC
|
12(10)
|
Duke Of Dunton (IRE)
|
10/1
|
EASTBOURNE UNITED
|
v
|
ARUNDEL
|
2(2)
|
Kicking The Can (IRE)
|
11/1
|
OSSETT ALBION
|
v
|
MAINE ROAD
|
3(7)
|
Munsarim (IRE)
|
16/1
|
TUFFLEY ROVERS
|
v
|
BISHOP'S CLEEVE
|
4(3)
|
Sexy Secret
|
20/1
|
CONSETT AFC
|
v
|
SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC
|
5(8)
|
The Firm (IRE)
|
12/1
|
HOLMESDALE
|
v
|
SOUTH PARK
|
6(9)
|
Understory (USA)
|
5/1
|
BURSCOUGH
|
v
|
AFC EMLEY
|
7(5)
|
Megalala (IRE)
|
12/1
|
SEVEN ACRE & SIDCUP
|
v
|
SITTINGBOURNE
|
8(4)
|
Bane (IRE)
|
14/1
|
COWES SPORTS
|
v
|
WIMBORNE TOWN
|
9(6)
|
Omotesando
|
2/1
|
While the afternoon was in progress, I looked for an equine way of getting the shortlist of eight down to one sole winner. The first race I found with eight runners was the 8.25 at Kempton Park and of course the nice stewards have already randomised them for me if I use their draw number rather than their display number.
RESULTS FROM LINGFIELD
1.50 Harmony Bay 20/1 linked to Cray Valley PM v Hastings
2.20 Shufoog 11/4f, Loughborough Dynamo v Basford United
2.50 Brave Archibald 11/4, Westfields v Kidsgrove Athletic
3.20 Showtime Star 4/1, Clipstone v Cleethorpes Town
3.50 Julieta 2/1, Winchester City v Wincanton Town
4.20 Rum Swizzle 5/2, Newton Aycliffe v Morpeth Town
4.55 Katniss 7/2f, Abbey Hey v Warrington Town
5.25 Omotesando 7/4f, Cowes Sports v Wimborne Town
Here is how the eight games link to the horses in the Kempton Park decider:
RESULTS FROM LINGFIELD
1.50 Harmony Bay 20/1 linked to Cray Valley PM v Hastings
2.20 Shufoog 11/4f, Loughborough Dynamo v Basford United
2.50 Brave Archibald 11/4, Westfields v Kidsgrove Athletic
3.20 Showtime Star 4/1, Clipstone v Cleethorpes Town
3.50 Julieta 2/1, Winchester City v Wincanton Town
4.20 Rum Swizzle 5/2, Newton Aycliffe v Morpeth Town
4.55 Katniss 7/2f, Abbey Hey v Warrington Town
5.25 Omotesando 7/4f, Cowes Sports v Wimborne Town
Here is how the eight games link to the horses in the Kempton Park decider:
Home
|
v
|
Away
|
Draw
|
Horse
|
Odds
|
Cray Valley (PM)
|
v
|
Hastings United
|
1
|
Twitch
(IRE)
|
6/1
|
Loughborough Dynamo
|
v
|
Basford United
|
2
|
Sea Of
Red
|
33/1
|
Westfields
|
v
|
Kidsgrove Athletic
|
3
|
Taper Tantrum
(IRE)
|
8/1
|
Clipstone
|
v
|
Cleethorpes Town
|
4
|
Emirates
Skywards (IRE)
|
15/2
|
Winchester City
|
v
|
Wincanton Town
|
5
|
Molten Lava
(IRE)
|
20/1
|
Newton Aycliffe
|
v
|
Morpeth Town
|
6
|
Soluble
(GER)
|
10/3
|
Abbey Hey
|
v
|
Warrington Town
|
7
|
Cloud
Seven
|
11/4
|
Cowes Sports
|
v
|
Wimborne Town
|
8
|
Landwade
Lad
|
9/2
|
THE RESULT OF THE 8.25 AT KEMPTON PARK
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