Faulty Reasoning in Basel (and Beyond)

Looking for an FA Cup tie for next Saturday (13 September), I chose 31 ties for my longlist using these criteria:

• ·         A ground that I have not visited before
• ·         The HOME team is at a same-or-lower position in the football hierarchy as of today – maybe at a whole level or more, or just at a lower league position in the same division

Then I used the RAND() function in Excel to change the list from alphabetical order (with a name like Yapp I despise Alphabetism in all its forms!) into a random order, which I can then link to the outcomes of the Switzerland v England game on Monday.  This is the only possible way that I can make Monday night interesting.

The video shows how that was done, live and unscripted (and apologies for the team name mispronounciation in the last minute, I am not as northern as I used to be, sorry, won’t do it again).

So, you can see that a goalless draw sends me to South Park whatever happens, a 1-0 win for either England or Switzerland will also give me a definite final decision, but any more than one goal in the game means that a second stage of randomness will be required to pick the final destination from the shortlist.

Here’s the final grid of links so that you can share in my excitement as the shortlist is decided by events in Basel …

UPDATE 1: Danny Welbeck's brace of goals came at times which put Marske United v Dunston UTS and Burscough v Curzon Ashton on to the Saturday shortlist of two.  A decision will  be made between them on the evening on Tuesday 9 September.

SOUTH PARK	v	METROPOLITAN POLICE	0-0 draw
EVESHAM UNITED	v	REDDITCH UNITED	0-3 mins
RUNCORN TOWN	v	WITTON ALBION	4-6 mins
MERSTHAM	v	CHIPSTEAD	7-9 mins
SALFORD CITY	v	NANTWICH TOWN	10-12 mins
SHORTWOOD	v	CIRENCESTER TOWN	13-15 mins
BISHOP AUCKLAND	v	SPENNYMOOR TOWN	16-18 mins
OSSETT ALBION	v	DROYLSDEN	19-21 mins
CLEETHORPES TOWN	v	CARLTON TOWN	22-24 mins
FOLKESTONE INVICTA	v	MARGATE	25-27 mins
NEWMARKET TOWN	v	HISTON	28-30 mins
TIVERTON TOWN	v	BIDEFORD AFC	31-33 mins
MANGOTSFIELD UNITED	v	WEYMOUTH	34-36 mins
MILDENHALL TOWN	v	WROXHAM	37-39 mins
SHILDON	v	WHITBY TOWN	40-42 mins
HARROGATE RAILWAY ATHLETIC	v	CLITHEROE	43mins-HT
ASHINGTON	v	SCARBOROUGH ATHLETIC	45-48 mins
CROYDON	v	BURGESS HILL TOWN	49-51 mins
ELLISTOWN & IBSTOCK UNITED	v	HEREFORD UNITED	52-54 mins
BLACKFIELD & LANGLEY	v	SHERBORNE TOWN	55-57 mins
MARSKE UNITED	v	DUNSTON UTS	58-60 mins
WARRINGTON TOWN	v	TRAFFORD	61-63 mins
KNAPHILL	v	FLEET TOWN	64-66 mins
HORNDEAN	v	NEWPORT (IoW)	67-69 mins
WEST ALLOTMENT CELTIC	v	LANCASTER CITY	70-72 mins
THAME UNITED	v	BURNHAM	73-75 mins
MARKET DRAYTON TOWN	v	STOURBRIDGE	76-78 mins
BODMIN TOWN	v	BRIDGWATER TOWN	79-81 mins
COLESHILL TOWN	v	BARWELL	82-84 mins
BRIGHOUSE TOWN	v	ASHTON UNITED	85-87 mins
BURSCOUGH	v	CURZON ASHTON	88-end

Technical stuff for randomness fans:  The selection of the 31 ties is not at all random.  The ordering of the list of 31 into random order is, however, truly random.  You can use the RAND() function within Excel to generate a random number between 0 and 1 and display it to as many decimal places as you like.  When the ties are sorted, the numbers in the cells change again at this point of recalculation but that does not matter.  All ties had an EXACTLY EQUAL chance of being first, or fifteenth, or twenty-eighth on the list.

However, once the list has been made randomly, we cannot say that all 31 ties now have an equal chance of being selected.  For example, Harrogate Railway Athletic and Burscough maybe have slightly greater chances of being shortlisted because we do not know how many minutes of added time there will be.  South Park has a different (unknown) chance of being shortlisted.  All of the other 28 teams have an equal chance of making the shortlist.

Small print: If there are two or three goals in any 3-minute interval, I will adjust for that in the next stage of selection.  If the game is abandoned because Switzerland do not turn up, then I will use another qualifier played on the same evening.  If England do not turn up ... no-one will be surprised and Roy Hodgson will say more rude words to the media.

UPDATE 2 - THE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN

I assigned eight international teams to Marske and eight to Burscough for matches on Tuesday evening.  Both had four at home and four away. Marske would have the goals scored by Andorra, Latvia, Czech Republic,Turkey, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia and Italy. Burscough would get those from Wales, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Iceland, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Malta and Norway.

Markse took an early lead as Bulgaria won away early in the evening, and they held on to the lead for most of the time.  Suddenly, Burscough were back in the game as Iceland scored twice, and they took the lead for the first time with ten minutes left.  Croatia's second made it 9-9 and then the Czech Republic's late winner gave the honour to Marske with a final tally of 10-9.  All the evidence is there on the @GrahamYapp Twitter timeline.  Burscough needed a goal from Cyprus in stoppage time and they would have then won on an away goals rule that I had just made up with the help of @damon_th of The Real FA Cup.  It was not to be, so it is a Yappmobile trip to the NE on Saturday..