Monday, 5 September 2011

Decision Time - Count the Goals

The venue for my Tuesday night FA Cup Replay hop will be determined by the total number of goals scored in two of tonight’s international friendlies – England U21 v Israel U21 and Brazil v Ghana.  It’s the only way to make them interesting.

The more goals scored, the shorter my journey.  Here’s the detail.
Total number of goals scored in the two games
Tuesday’s Fixture
Oadby Town v Quorn
Wisbech Town v March Town Utd
Whyteleafe v Folkestone
AFC Sudbury v St Ives Town
Southend Manor v Cheshunt
Thame United v Newport Pagnell Town
Egham Town v Merstham
Ardley United v Wembley
Hanworth Villa v Bedfont Sports
9 or more
Thrapston Town v Shepshed Dynamo

Thanks to @yappattack for looking up the following odds which I will use to illustrate how it could work.

At the time of writing (5.40pm), Betfair users believe that the most likely score in each match is 2-0 (to England U21 & Brazil respectively) at odds of 7/1 and 13/2.  If the punters are right, the total of four goals will send me to Southend tomorrow night.  The same thing will happen, for example, if both matches end in 1-1 draws.

Meanwhile, William Hill reckon that a total of three goals is most likely in the England game (11/4), with two or three equally most likely (also at 11/4) in the Brazil game.  This would give a total of 5 or 6, sending me either to Thame or Egham.

My hopping fate is therefore quasi-random, and of course the returning Ronaldinho might be in the mood to send me to Thrapston by himself.  We will see.  I really don't want to go to Wisbech in the dark :)

England U21 4 Israel U21 1 & Brazil 1 Ghana 0 - a total of six goals which means that I will pitch up at Egham Town v Merstham.  The teams drew 1-1 last Saturday, with a late Egham equaliser earning them a replay against their higher-graded opponents.

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