Current Affairs - Composure is the Potential Difference in the Dynamo Derby

 

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Monday 30 August 2021 at the Dovecote Stadium, Butthole Lane
Result	Shepshed Dynamo 0 Loughborough Dynamo 1
Competition	Northern Premier League Midland Division (Step 4)
Hopstats	Ground 724 on the lifetime list. After Saturday’s 18hr 8-legged train trip to Devon, I needed something more straightforward today. So when, as a physics teacher, I saw that my nearest unvisited Step 4 ground was hosting the Dynamo Derby, well, it would have been rude not to, wouldn’t it?
Context
13th v 11th. Loughborough are out of the FA Cup and have a win and a draw from four games, but have lost all of their away games so far. Two days ago they walloped Sporting Khalsa 6-2. Shepshed are also out of the FA Cup and their first win of the season came just two days ago. They also had a draw, so both teams have four points but Shepshed have played one game fewer. All of this incomplete and contradictory information means that we might as well make our predictions from something mad like the colour of the goalkeeper tops. Shepshed are back up at Step 4 after their combined record for the last two seasons in the United Counties League was enough to get them a promotion.
In One Sentence
Ether keenly-contested or embarrassingly fractious, depending on your point of view, and settled from the penalty spot early in the second half.
So What?
The teams finish the day in 13th and 8th places respectively.
Pre-match Entertainment
I became the 5738th groundhopper to take this picture.  A butt in this context is an archery target, by the way. Just to be clear.
Match Report
Shepshed started brightly and most of the early play was in the Loughborough half, but it was the visitors who created the first clear-cut chance in the 14th minute. A free-kick was bought on the left flank, the cross caused penalty area chaos. The ball stayed out of the Shepshed net through a combination of crossbar and an excellent double reflex save by home keeper Brandon Ganley. Ganley, I believe, was making a second debut for the club having re-signed this week due to an injury to Matthew White. No player hat much time on the ball so passing play in the first half at least was sacrificed for first-time knocks and volleys. Both teams came close to scoring as we approached the 20-minute mark. Firstly Shepshed’s John King shot narrowly wide, and then Loughborough’s Kevin da Silva Bastos rolled the ball wide, Ganley doing well to narrow the angle and take away a really clear scoring chance. The first of several tetchy flashpoints came after 25 minutes. I’ve been unlucky with my physical placement recently and again the incident was on the far side from me. There was a crunching tackle, or attempted tackle. I couldn’t give a sensible view about right and wrong, but there were words exchanged and soon there was a large melée of players, plenty of in-your-face confrontation but short of blows being exchanged, it seemed. It took a couple of minutes for the officials to get things calmed down, and at least two players were cautioned, one from each side. There could have been a third, but I’m not totally sure. It was all a bit unseemly. On 34 minutes, a straight red card was shown to Loughborough’s Jake Finnerty, for a tackle deemed dangerous. Again, I was at the other end so can’t say much more other than my first impression had been that it was clumsy and mistimed rather than malicious. However, tempers were frayed and there were three more yellows in quick succession before the interval as the referee sought to bring the game back under control. That brought the card count to six yellows (maybe five) and the red for the first half. That may be a personal record among the games I have watched. Loughborough had made a tactical substitution after the dismissal, so the second half was going to be decided, so we thought, by whether Shepshed could get a passing game going to make the extra man count. In fact the first key event was the winning goal, timed at 49 minutes, given for a foul, and yes, of course at the other end from me. Curtis Burrows scored what turned out to be the only goal of the game. Another crunching tackle and set of confrontations led to two more yellow cards, including visiting keeper Jason Alexander for protesting outside his area. Shepshed did indeed try to impose a passing game, using both flanks, but the final ball was often disappointing and you could sense a growing frustration as Loughborough held firm. Shepshed came close to an equaliser two or three times. One effort was correctly disallowed for offside. One deflection bounced wide with Alexander about to dive the other way. Then the final sign that this was not Shepshed’s day was the ball smacking back and down off the crossbar with Alexander, for once, beaten. In the last few minutes it became ten v ten as Ben Starkie was also dismissed for a bad tackle. That made it easier for Loughborough to see out the final moments and hold on to the points. The game was interesting and entertaining in the sense that the result was in doubt until the end, and a turnout of 486 was very decent. As a passing neutral, I don’t blame the ref as much as the supporters around me (I was FA Class III myself back in the day after all). It's not always his ... wait for it ... volt. #sorrynotsorry
Other Match Pix
Shepshed in black-and-white.
Ground Pix
Plenty of structural features to keep the traditionalist groundhopper happy. If visiting, read the suggestions for parking in advance and get here early is my advice.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 225 matches is here, on this separate page. Today, Orange lined up against Green. Green’s victory and clean sheet does not change the order in the league table, but it did bring the prediction success ratio back to exactly 50%. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Away Was the prediction correct? Yes % of correct predictions so far 50% (40 from 80) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! Three of my unvisited Step 4 grounds (Basingstoke Town, Corinthian & Runcorn Linnets) are hosting FA Cup ties next Saturday and all being well I will be choosing one of them somehow. Whether it will be done by the blog’s signature randomishness or just transport practicalities is not yet clear. Watch this space!

 

Dynamo Turned Over By Highwaymen of Morpeth

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 19 January 2019 at Craik Park
Result	Morpeth Town 4 Loughborough Dynamo 1
Competition	Northern Premier League Division One East (Step 4)
Hopstats	Ground 675 on the lifelong list, and I am here randomishly but pragmatically because the home team very helpfully made a very clear and early “Game On” announcement on Twitter, allowing me time to travel.
Context
League leaders host 8th placed visitors.  Morpeth lost their last home game, but won away from home last week.  Loughborough lost at home last week, but had an away win the week before, and won the reverse fixture back in November.  Anything could happen.
In one sentence
Morpeth Town’s more effective cutting edge in attack secured a reasonably comfortable win.
So what?
It’s still 1st and 8th for the two sides.  Only seven points separates 3rd from 12th in this division.
Match Report
Pre-match credit for the home-made soup that accompanied my pre-match pie.  On the pitch, Loughborough really should have taken the lead in the first minute after good work by Alex Steadman. Then at the other end a missed defensive header let in Liam Henderson but the ref correctly waved away penalty appeals as he was closed down. The opening goal was a textbook towering header by a Morpeth centre-back from a corner, and the scorer was Jeff Henderson.  Their second goal was a disputed penalty, but David Carson put it away despite the keeper getting a touch. Then there was a penalty at the other end. Ryan Robbins scored it and so the score stood at 2-1 after 24 minutes.  Five minutes later it was 3-1.  Luke Foster, already booked, gave away a freekick on the edge if the area.  The first attempt from a glancing header was saved, the second was cleared off the line, but a looping header from Liam Henderson found the net. By now the officiating had upset both teams for some reason or other, Morpeth’s Tom Potter was booked for simulation before the home team missed several chances to add a 4th goal.  Good link-up play by Sean Taylor created a chance that went just wide.  A header grazed the post and due to a bobble (honest) I fluffed the control of the ball.  Then after a good save by Charlie Taylor I caught it nicely to restore reputational damage.  With the last kick of the first half, Sean Taylor chipped the ball on to the bar and Morpeth remained only two goals to the good at half-time. Loughborough needed a goal-line clearance to keep it that way at the start of the second half.  Generally, however, the visitors gave a better account of themselves in an end-to-end passage of play.  They made home keeper Dan Lowson work harder, but only to a fairly routine extent.  Sean Taylor finally got the fourth goal in the 67th minute.  A first effort was bravely saved by Charlie Taylor but the rebound fell kindly and he took a touch wide of the fallen keeper and planted the ball in the roof of the net from a narrow angle. The job was now done but Sean Taylor would have had a personal second if substitute Jack Foalie had made a better decision and passed rather than shot.  The final few minutes were scrappy but the result had long since been decided. Foalie also finished with a yellow card after kicking the ball away.
Other Pix
Morpeth in amber and black, Loughborough in green.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  Table compiled from my last 176 games. Today Green (albeit fluorescent) takes on Blue and gets the win but no clean sheet.  Not enough to change the order in the league table. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Away Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 65% (20 from 31) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box P W D L GC CS Pts PPG Red 10.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 11.0 3.0 20.0 2.000 Blue 44.1 19.0 7.0 18.1 68.0 14.0 66.0 1.497 Grey 49.5 23.0 11.0 15.5 80.5 14.0 69.5 1.404 Green 92.0 49.0 11.0 32.0 151.0 23.0 122.0 1.326 Fire Cracker 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 0.667 Maroon 5.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 3.0 0.600 Purple 21.0 8.0 4.0 9.0 45.0 5.0 8.0 0.381 Orange 45.5 15.0 8.0 22.5 84.5 7.0 3.5 0.077 Radioactive Bile 21.0 9.0 0.0 12.0 45.0 3.0 -3.0 -0.143 Yellow 35.0 9.0 7.0 19.0 77.0 5.0 -18.0 -0.514 Pink 18.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 37.0 1.0 -12.0 -0.667 Black 6.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 15.0 0.0 -6.0 -1.000 White 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  Thirty Step 4 grounds still to be done.