Midnight Movie

Hopperational Details for Tuesday 11 October 2011

For a midweek hop, I have chosen my nearest step 5 fixtures at unvisited grounds, and linked them to the throw of two dice in such a way that the most likely outcome will give me the shortest journey.  There are 11 possible outcomes whose probabilities range from 1 in 36 (the "double one" or the "double six") to 1 in 6 (or 6 in 36, the six ways in which the total could end up as 7 - 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1).  It's almost midnight on Monday, so this is a silent movie!  Feel free to improvise your own melodramatic piano accompaniment, but don't go near the old A Flat Minor joke.  Please.  

Competition	Fixture	Distance (miles)	Score on 2d6 (and chance)
Comb Counties Premier	Dorking v Epsom & Ewell	65	12 (1 in 36)
Comb Counties Premier	Chessington & Hook v Farnham Town	61	11 (2 in 36)
Comb Counties Premier	Camberley T v Banstead Athletic	56	10 (3 in 36)
Comb Counties Premier	Hanworth Villa v Badshot Lea	53	9 (4 in 36)
South Mids Premier	London Tigers v Harefield Utd	36	8 (5 in 36)
Essex Senior League	Clapton v Basildon Utd	34	7 (6 in 36)
United Counties Premier	Cogenhoe v AFC Kempston Rvrs	49	6 (5 in 36)
Hellenic Premier	Ardley Utd v Cheltenham Saracens	54	5 (4 in 36)
Hellenic Premier	Bracknell Town v Shrivenham	58	4 (3 in 36)
Hellenic Premier	Thame Utd v Fairford Town	61	3 (2 in 36)
Comb Counties Premier	Horley Town v Egham Town	73	2 (1 in 36)

Small print: all of this assumes that I can finish work on time at 4.30pm or so to allow enough time for the journey!

Roll camera one - ACTION!

A 2D6 Decision

Let's do the math (old habits etc etc) ...


When two traditional 6-sided dice are rolled and totalled, there are 36 (6x6) possible combinations adding up to totals from 2 to 12.  However, 2 and 12 are the least likely totals because there is only one way of getting there … 1+1 or 6+6.  The most likely total is 7 because there are six possible ways of making it.  6 out of 36 is a probability of 16.7% (to the nearest 0.1).  The colours in the chart show why this is, and the eleven possible outcomes are matched to eleven chosen fixtures below.

This is where groundhopping comes into its own – it is always possible to choose a game that means something in the context of the season.  I’ve put games where both teams are involved in promotion or relegation fights for the most likely outcomes, or the mid-table or lower level games as least likely.  I really do want to go to Workington soon, but not necessarily for this particular fixture!

	Die 2 v
Die 1          >		1		2		3		4		5		6
	1	2		3		4		5		6		7
	2	3		4		5		6		7		8
	3	4		5		6		7		8		9
	4	5		6		7		8		9		10
	5	6		7		8		9		10		11
	6	7		8		9		10		11		12

Total on 2xd6	Chance	Game
2	2.8%	Workington v Worcester City (mid table, Conference N)
3	5.6%	Ashton U v Nantwich T (mid table, Northern Premier)
4	8.3%	Stocksbridge PS v Burscough (17v12, Northern Premier)
5	11.1%	North Ferriby U v Halifax T (4v1, Northern Premier)
6	13.9%	Colwyn Bay v Matlock T (2v3, Northern Premier)
7	16.7%	Tonbridge A v Lowestoft (6v4, Isthmian Premier)
8	13.9%	Stourbridge v Salisbury C (5v2, Southern Premier)
9	11.1%	Croydon A v Bury T (22v2, Isthmian Premier)
10	8.3%	Hastings U v Canvey I (19v10, Isthmian Premier)
11	5.6%	Frickley v FC United (20v13, Northern Premier)
12	2.8%	Bognor Regis T v Met Police (3v1, step 4)

So where am I going?