A Test of Decision-Making

Dice image from Wikimedia Commons Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0, Old Trafford taken by me June 2019 during Cricket World Cup.

It’s Friday, my day off, and time to decide my groundhopping destination this weekend. I have twelve grounds on my priority list that are hosting a game tomorrow, for once I can make a truly random decision using the strict definition that all outcomes are equally likely. These twelve grounds are from a list of twenty-four that I need to complete “everywhere in England down to Step 4”. The others are not hosting a game this weekend.

The number 12 lends itself to a 2x6 approach using the classic Head-Tail divide for the factor of two and a single d6 die roll for the factor of six. Here’s the combination table. However, I might as well take the opportunity bring a bit more meaning to the life of the umpire at today’s Old Trafford test match. He can do the coin-toss for me. There are only two outcomes – I don’t need to know whether the call was heads or tails, or what the captain decides, I just need to know which one of them wins the toss.

Home Team	Score on d6	Win Coin Toss at Old Trafford
Brighouse Town	1	England
Clitheroe	1	India
Corinthian	2	England
Glossop North End	2	India
Gloucester City	3	England
Lancing	3	India
Liversedge	4	England
Lymington Town	4	India
Stockton Town	5	England
Wimborne Town	5	India
York City	6	England
Yorkshire Amateur	6	India

Here’s the die roll, recorded at around 8.00am this morning

 

 … and now we wait for another random event in Manchester. This should be, depending a little on the weather, sometime between 10.00 and 11.00am this morning. If it rains all day (which is not the forecast) then I will have to find a coin myself later on this afternoon.

9.00am update: Well, I didn't see that coming. Nothing to do with me, honest, no cause-and-effect to see here. The Old Trafford test match is not taking place, in controversial circumstances. Let's pass the mantle to the Northern Diamonds. This women's cricket team featured in a recent decision on this blog and they can be trusted to deliver. Their game against Western Storm in the Rachel Heyhoe Flint Trophy is due to start at 10.30am, so I assume there will be a coin toss at around 10.00am.

If Northern Diamonds win the toss, I go to the first game of the two relevant choices in the above table. If they lose the toss, it's the second. What could possibly go wrong?

10.10am update: Northern Diamonds win the toss. They chose to bowl first but that is of no consequence for this random decision. Job done.

Afternoon update: fixture called off due to Covid in the Hereford team. Will have to re-think. Will be constrained by the train tickets that I bought!