I've Got Fifty-Five Problems But a Pitch Ain't One

Now Updated with the Result (see below!)

Many Step 5 sides start their competitive league seasons on Saturday 5 September. A look at the fixture lists showed me there are 55 unvisited grounds hosting games, so in keeping with the blog's random roots I needed to devise a way of making a selection. The blog is ten years old this week, and I'd like to say thank you to my small but loyal readership. None of the following will surprise you, I have form in these matters as they say.

Here's how it works. The key was realising that 55=5x11 and spotting that there were eleven competitive football games across Europe on Friday. I can take those games, and divide each of them into five time slots each nominally lasting eighteen minutes, as 5x18=90.

So now I have 55 time intervals, each linked to a particular match.

A quick bit of typing, copying and pasting in Excel puts the home teams in one column and the match time slots with another. Using the RAND() function within the spreadsheet assigns a random number to the teams. If I then sort the teams in rank order of that random number then I have assigned the teams to the time slots as randomly as I can.

Here's the evidence on YouTube if you're into process verification, and a clipped image of the final list. Basically, if there is a goal glut in the closing segment of Belarus v Albania, I'll be off to Brislington the next morning. I'm sure you get the idea.

Video Evidence of the Sorting and Allocation Process

The Decision:

Step 1: I will count the total number of goals scored (by either side) in each timeslot for each match.

Step 2: EITHER On Saturday, I will go to the ground linked to the side with the largest number of goals. OR If there is more than one slot with an equal number of goals, go to Step 3.

Step 3 (if required): EITHER Go to the ground linked with the LATEST of the equal-total timeslots (so 55 to 72 mins would beat 19 to 36 for example) OR If there is more than one such timeslot, go to Step 4.

Step 4 (if required): EITHER Go to the ground linked with the LATEST INDIVIDUAL GOAL from the equal-ranked alternatives (so a 89th minute goal would beat an 85th for example) OR Go to Step 5 in the unlikely event that there is still a tie to be broken.

Step 5 (if required): Choose a true random process as appropriate to make a final decision, in accordance with the number involved, such as a coin-toss for two, a tetrahedral die roll for four, pulling names out of a hat for five and so on.

If circumstances beyond my control prevent me going to that particular ground such as a ticket not being available, or match postponement, then I will roll back the selection process to the team(s) that was/were eliminated last, and use a random process to make the final decision if that creates two or more teams tied.

Small print:

Goals scored in penalty shoot-outs do not count in this process.

It might be argued that the time slots are not of exactly equal duration in that the end of each half has stoppage time added. This is a fair point, countered by the fact that the teams were assigned by a true random process, and so was outside my influence, but it does mean that this whole thing is only randomish rather than truly random in a perfectly mathematical sense. A meeting for all those people who care about this will be held in a phone box in Hemel Hempstead sometime next week.

So, what happened?

The two earlier kickoffs in Lithuania and Middlesbrough left Shaftesbury in the lead, so to speak, and eliminated nine teams. None of the time slots ended up with more than two goals and gradually the list of possibilities shortened as many timeslots delivered either one goal or none at all. Lordswood, as a result of a goal apiece for Italy and Bosnia-Herzegovina, pushed out Shaftesbury using the Step 4 tie-breaker (67th minute as opposed to 65th minute) before a late brace of goals in Slovakia v Czech Republic decided that I would be going to Rothwell Corinthians after all. The two goals in the "final fifth", 86' and 88', were unmatched anywhere else so that the decision was made at the Step 3 tie-breaker. It's the United Counties Premier, and the visitors are Northampton ON Chenecks. Here's the state of play as it was at half-time in the evening games, and then again at the end.

Half-Time

Full-Time