Saturday 13 October 2018

Went to Aldiss Effort for Non-League Day



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Non-League Day 2018
Saturday 13 October 2018 at Aldiss Park
Result
Dereham Town 1 Kempston Rovers 3
Competition
FA Trophy Preliminary Round
Hopstats
Ground 660 on the lifetime list, and I am here randomishly because Croatia v England was a 0-0 draw last night.  Other scorelines would have taken me to Felixstowe (1-0, 0-1, 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4…) or Peterborough Sports (2-0, 1-1, 0-2 …).  A 2-1 or 3-0 scoreline either way would have brought me here too.  The evidence trail is there on Twitter, as excitement gripped the nation.  Not.  One “like” (out of sympathy I guess) is all I got.
Context
Both clubs are in the lower halves of their respective Step 4 divisions.  Dereham are part of the Isthmian League Division 1 North, while Kempston are in the Southern League Divison 1 Central.  Kempston won 3-1 at Barton Rovers in the Extra Preliminary Round, whilst Dereham enter the competition at this point.
In one sentence
An entertaining game in which Kempston scored the crucial first goal of the second half to seize the initiative.
So what?
Kempston go into the proverbial hat for the next round, drawn on Monday.  Dereham concentrate, as they say, on the league.
Match Report
The club had made an effort for Non-League Day and attracted a crowd of just over 200. This was an entertaining end-to-end game for the passing neutral, played in a warm breeze on a dry and bouncy pitch.  Kempston started with more possession and their wide men looked dangerous when running at the home defence.  The first real chance came to Dereham, a break leading to a lob that drifted just wide.

The opening goal after 20 minutes looked from the other end to be a cracker.  A turn and curling shot into the top corner by Luke Heneghan gave the home keeper Elliot Pride no chance as the visitors took the lead.  Dereham deservedly drew level before half-time.  They had pressed with several corners in succession and a direct freekick that hit the post.  They finally broke through with Daniel Beaumont finding time and space in the centre to score from the edge of the area.  1-1 at half-time was a very fair scoreline.

The second half started in end-to-end fashion.  A Dereham header clipped the bar, and then the Kempston keeper Martin Conway was forced into a sharp low save.  Then Kempston’s Nathan Tshikuna hit the post, and soon afterwards outmuscled two defenders before sending a cross-shot just high and wide.

With the first signs of fatigue appearing, Kempston landed the decisive blow after 81 minutes.  Heneghan had lots of time and space in the centre to choose his spot for his second, in similar fashion to the Dereham goal.  Of course, this being a cup competition forced Dereham to attack and they were out of luck as the visitors caught them on the break and substitute Ben Acquaye stayed calm and composed to seal the win.
Pix
Dereham are The Magpies, so they are in black-and-white.










Ben Acquaye makes it 3-1 to Kempston.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  Table compiled from my last 161 games.

Today, Blue beats Purple as expected, but no clean sheets.  Purple drops a couple of places in a congested mid-table.

Helped by the post this time



Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Away Win
Was the prediction correct?
Yes
% of correct predictions so far
69% (11 from 16)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. For new readers the odd .5 was caused by a shocking half-and-half shirt and the .1 was due to a substitute goalkeeper in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.  It may not be statistically significant as yet, but football coverage ignores this point as a matter of routine.

P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
10.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
11.0
3.0
20.0
2.000
Blue
40.1
18.0
7.0
15.1
56.0
14.0
75.0
1.870
Grey
47.5
22.0
10.0
15.5
79.5
13.0
61.5
1.295
Green
84.0
42.0
10.0
32.0
142.0
21.0
99.0
1.179
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Purple
19.0
8.0
3.0
8.0
41.0
5.0
11.0
0.579
Radioactive Bile
20.0
9.0
0.0
11.0
40.0
3.0
2.0
0.100
Orange
36.5
11.0
7.0
18.5
69.5
6.0
0.5
0.014
Yellow
32.0
9.0
7.0
16.0
66.0
5.0
-7.0
-0.219
Pink
17.0
5.0
5.0
7.0
35.0
1.0
-10.0
-0.588
Black
6.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
15.0
0.0
-6.0
-1.000
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  Hoping to get to a good number of Step 4 grounds during the rest of the season.  41 of them to go, many of them up north, to complete that level and thus (until the next restructuring) “Doing the 388”.


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