3-2-1 Go!

Last week, Peter Ebdon's eleven minutes of inactivity in Melbourne, Australia led to a list of 148 FA Cup Extra Preliminary Round ties being narrowed down to three, but not all equally likely.

I need a way of deciding that gives weightings of 3 : 2 : 1 to the ties at Sleaford Town, AFC Blackpool and Plymouth Parkway.  Well, since I probably spend too much time on Twitter, a method that involves Twitter and time is appropriate.

3-2-1 ... action!

In other groundhopping news, I have decided that I will try to raise money this year for research at Moorfields Eye Hospital along the way.  Not sure yet how this will work, it's something for me to think about in the next month or so.  Why?  Well, it adds an element of positivity and constructivity to the hobby, as if programmes and rucksacks weren't enough.  Two family members have already received life-changing treatment there, and it is a place that deserves support.


I am hoping that lots of people will donate small amounts so that we can create a larger one by the end of the season.  Please look out for ways to contribute!


My target will be a minimum of 50 games in the season, and a maximum of 100, most likely to be in the region of 60, with more at the beginning and ends of the season to coincide with school holidays and better travelling conditions.


My opening personal pledge is a donation of 50p per goal scored ... and here's how you can take part.  Send me a message on Twitter (@GrahamYapp) or by email to headyapp(at)hotmail.com.  You could choose anything along these lines ...

Pledge	Reason …
	For each goal scored (current average is something like 3-4 per game)
	For each goal recorded on a vid clip
	For each 0-0 draw suffered
	For each “new ground” visited
	For each red card witnessed
	For each penalty kick (missed or scored)
	For anything else that you can think of that won’t get me arrested

I'll worry about the mechanics of collecting the money, and Gift Aid, later.  There might even be other random developments along the way.  All I'd need to know to start with is your pledge (and whether you would prefer to be anonymous).  Coughing-up time would be at the end of the 2012-13 regular season.  Sponsoring me for a penny a goal will still cost you less than a pint (even at non-league prices) at the end of the season.  The plan is to have lots of people donating just a little.  Please tell your friends too.


Thank you in advance for your support.  Here's to the new season!

I need the help of Peter Ebdon ...

It turns out there are 148 possible "new ground" FA Cup ties for me in the Extra Preliminary round of the 2012-13 FA Cup.  At this stage I have not been able to check for groundsharers, kickoff times or even diary practicalities, so I need a way of narrowing this list down.  Originally I counted 147, and @NickWillis2 on Twitter suggested a snooker break method, having ruled out the existence of an 147-sided die.

Well, this is good.  In anything other than the most bizarre snooker frames, the lowest score is 0 and the highest is 147.  (I know that in theory a player could theoretically go on to make a "maximum" of 147 after a foul, but that is unlikely even in my world.)

So here are my 148 ties ... numbered 0 to 147, and in alphabetical order to remove regional bias.

0	AFC Blackpool V AFC Liverpool
1	AFC Emley V Chadderton
2	Almondsbury UWE V Petersfield Town
3	Alton Town V Bradford Town
4	Arnold Town V Holbeach United
5	Arundel V Epsom & Ewell
6	Ashington V Sunderland RCA
7	Atherton LR V Rossington Main
8	Barton Town Old Boys V Barnoldswick Town
9	Basildon United V Diss Town
10	Bedfont Sports V Tring Athletic
11	Bedlington Terriers V Morpeth Town
12	Billingham Synthonia V Celtic Nation
13	Bishop Sutton V Radstock Town
14	Bitton AFC V Bristol Manor Farm
15	Blackfield & Langley V AFC Portchester
16	Blackstones V Barrow Town
17	Bodmin Town V Brislington
18	Bootle V Alsager Town
19	Boston Town V Quorn
20	Bournemouth V Pewsey Vale
21	Bracknell Town V Binfield
22	Bridlington Town V Whitley Bay
23	Brocton V Bewdley Town
24	Buckland Athletic V Bridport
25	Chard Town V Ilfracombe Town
26	Cheadle Town V Maltby Main
27	Chessington & Hook United V Warlingham
28	Chester-Le-Street Town V Billingham Town
29	Chichester City V Crowborough Athletic
30	Christchurch V Cowes Sports
31	Cobham V South Park
32	Coleshill Town V AFC Wulfrunians
33	Colne V Congleton Town
34	Corinthian V Croydon
35	Cove V Slimbridge AFC
36	Cradley Town V Shifnal Town
37	Crook Town AFC V Penrith AFC
38	Daisy Hill V Formby
39	Deal Town V Ashford United
40	Debenham LC V Whitton United
41	Dereham Town V Stewarts & Lloyds Corby
42	Dinnington Town V Atherton Collieries
43	Dorking V VCD Athletic
44	Downton V Ash United
45	Dudley Sports V Heath Hayes
46	Durham City V Newcastle Benfield
47	Earlswood Town V Nuneaton Griff
48	East Cowes Victoria Athletic V Verwood Town
49	Eccleshall V Stourport Swifts
50	Eccleshill United V Glasshoughton Welfare
51	Ellesmere Rangers V Coventry Sphinx
52	Erith Town V Ringmer
53	Fakenham Town V St Ives Town
54	Farnham Town V Alresford Town
55	FC Clacton V Halstead Town
56	Felixstowe & Walton United V Team Bury
57	Fleet Spurs V Totton & Eling
58	GE Hamble V Whitchurch United
59	Gillingham Town V Tavistock AFC
60	Glossop North End V Louth Town
61	Godmanchester Rovers V Thetford Town
62	Gorleston V Stanway Rovers
63	Hailsham Town V Greenwich Borough
64	Hallen V Fawley
65	Hanwell Town V Haringey & Waltham Development
66	Hanworth  Villa V Bethnal Green United
67	Hartley Wintney V Holmer Green
68	Hassocks V Sidley United
69	Hayling United V Fareham Town
70	Hemsworth MW V Runcorn Linnets
71	Highgate United V Wellington
72	Highworth Town V Corsham Town
73	Horley Town V Holmesdale
74	Horndean V Brockenhurst
75	Ipswich Wanderers V Hadleigh United
76	Irlam V Hallam
77	Jarrow Roofing Boldon CA V Pickering Town
78	Kings Langley V St Margaretsbury
79	Kirkley & Pakefield V Sawbridgeworth Town
80	Lancing V Selsey
81	Larkhall Athletic V Willand Rovers
82	Lingfield V AFC Uckfield
83	Littlehampton Town V Molesey
84	Liversedge V West Auckland Town
85	London APSA V Long Melford
86	Long Eaton United V Dunkirk
87	Lordswood V Erith & Belvedere
88	Lye Town V Bartley Green
89	Maine Road V Squires Gate
90	Marske United V Stokesley SC
91	Mole Valley SCR V Badshot Lea
92	New Milton Town V Newport (IW)
93	Newton Aycliffe V Holker Old Boys
94	North Shields V Birtley Town
95	Northallerton Town V Guisborough Town
96	Norton United V Alvechurch
97	Nostell MW V Winsford United
98	Oadby Town V Anstey Nomads
99	Odd Down V Saltash United
100	Padiham V Wigan Robin Park
101	Pagham V Sevenoaks Town
102	Parkgate V Runcorn Town
103	Peacehaven & Telscombe V Banstead Athletic
104	Pegasus Juniors V Long Buckby
105	Pilkington XXX V Atherstone Town
106	Plymouth Parkway V Welton Rovers
107	Pontefract Collieries V Norton & Stockton Ancients
108	Raynes Park Vale V Horsham YMCA
109	Reading Town V Newport Pagnell Town
110	Redhill V Whyteleafe
111	Ringwood Town V Cadbury Heath
112	Romsey Town V Lymington Town
113	Rushden & Higham United V Bugbrooke St Michaels
114	Shawbury United V Westfields
115	Shepshed Dynamo V Heanor Town
116	Sherborne Town V Elmore
117	Shirebrook Town V Kirby Muxloe
118	Shoreham V Colliers Wood United
119	Silsden AFC V Brighouse Town
120	Sleaford Town V Holwell Sports
121	South Shields V Darlington Railway Athletic
122	Southend Manor V Hullbridge Sports
123	Spalding United V Blaby & Whetstone Athletic
124	Spennymoor Town V Scarborough Athletic
125	St Andrews V Borrowash Victoria
126	St Francis Rangers V Rye United
127	St Helens Town V Abbey Hey
128	Staines Lammas V Barking
129	Stockport Sports V Ashton Athletic
130	Stone Dominoes V Rocester
131	Street V Hengrove Athletic
132	Tadcaster Albion V Consett AFC
133	Teversal V Loughborough University
134	Thackley V Hebburn Town
135	Thame United V Newbury
136	Thurnby Nirvana V Lincoln Moorlands Railway
137	Tividale V Stratford Town
138	Tow Law Town V Bishop Auckland
139	Washington V Esh Winning
140	Wells City V Barnstaple Town
141	West Allotment Celtic V Selby Town
142	Whitehaven AFC V Shildon
143	Winterbourne United V Moneyfields
144	Winterton Rangers V Bacup Borough
145	Wisbech Town V Desborough Town
146	Wivenhoe Town V Haverhill Rovers
147	Wootton Bassett Town V Calne Town

Now, who better to help than former world champion Peter Ebdon ... he has a stand named after him at Wellingborough Town, so there is a non-league sign.  Today, he is playing Barry Hawkins in the final of the Australian Open ...  


UPDATE: Here's how it works ...


@NickWillis2 will choose 4, 5 or 6 on Twitter.  These are frame numbers from the final that has just finished.  The numbers we need are:


Peter Ebdon's best break of the frame
Barry Hawkins' best break of the frame
The total number of points scored in the frame
Peter's frame score
Barry's frame score
The margin of victory in the frame


Some of these might turn out to be the same ... no matter, it will just mean that the corresponding match has a better chance.  Once we have six alternatives, it's time for the good old-fashioned die roll.

UPDATE 2: Nick has chosen Frame 4 - here we go!

UPDATE 3:



Peter Ebdon's best break of the frame:
0, we didn't even see him at the table, so that's AFC Blackpool v AFC Liverpool


Barry Hawkins' best break of the frame:
106, ended with a pink that could have given him the chance of 119 and me the chance of AFC Silsden v Brighouse, so instead it is Plymouth Parkway v Welton Rovers


The total number of points scored in the frame:
Frame score was 0-120 so that is Sleaford Town v Holwell Sports


Peter's frame score:
0, so a second chance for AFC Blackpool v AFC Liverpool


Barry's frame score:
120, so a second chance for Sleaford Town v Holwell Sports


The margin of victory in the frame:
120, so a third chance for Sleaford Town v Holwell Sports


Thus we have the games and their probabilities - Sleaford Town (50.00%), AFC Blackpool (33.33%) and Plymouth Parkway (16.67%).  The final selection from this weighted shortlist will take place next week.  Watch this space!