Hawayday at the Bay

Hopperational details
Date & Venue	Saturday 18 February 2012 at Hillheads
Result	Whitley Bay 1 West Auckland Town 2
Competition	FA Vase Round 5 – a tie between two teams from the step 5 Northern League Division One
Hopping	I am here because I rolled a six.  See last post.  This is within the bounds of normal behaviour for a human being if you ask me.  Venue #451 on the lifetime list.
This match in one sentence
The holders go out in a game that had drama at each end and tension in between, as a late equaliser was wiped out by an even later winner.
So what?
West Auckland go into the last eight, where they will be at home to either Billingham Synthonia or Bournemouth.  Whitley Bay will be, as they say, concentrating on the league
Something random
Far and away the best random notice I have ever seen at a football ground, anywhere.
The drama unfolds
This is a game that has already been well covered, so I am sticking to the spirit and form of this blog and writing from my original notes and impressions, before reading others’ accounts.  Honest. As I headed north on Saturday morning, the Twittersphere spluttered into operation and the locals were warned of my impending arrival.  And so it was that I was welcomed by @HuddoHudson, @NewcastleDavey and @sheeshkebab among others for some pre-match prattle in The Last Orders, across the road from the ground.  They filled in some of the gaps in my northern league knowledge and were splendid hosts for the day as I embedded myself in the Bell-Enders.  Loved the old-school bell and rattles of the long-standing Bay supporters. As usual, I recorded a “scene-setter” clip after about ten minutes or so, standing in the bright but cold sunshine behind the goal.  Bay are in blue.  The clip ended with the referee’s whistle for a foul, and I pressed stop before the implications became clear.  The game was not to restart until 3.50pm, some thirty-five minutes later, and from a purely selfish point of view after such a long drive I was relieved that it restarted at all. All I can say is that my immediate impression was that the Whitley Bay player was over-stretching for a ball that the wind was taking away from him, and the wind was a factor in his mistiming.  It didn’t look like malicious intent, and the reactions of the other players were horror at the injury more than anger towards the perpetrator.  I now know that the tackler was Lee Paul Scroggins, and the injured party was Alex Francis.  It was clear within seconds even to us behind the goal that this was a serious injury.  The ambulance came on to the pitch and it took some time to stabilise Francis before moving him. It gradually became clear that the game would continue, and at 3.50pm the red card was shown to Scroggins, over half an hour after the event, which was astonishing in itself.  Whitley Bay made a substitution, either tactical or because the player concerned was too distressed to continue, and the rest of the half was played out in a surreal atmosphere – the police arrived as tensions were mounting. Kyle Hayes, the Bay keeper, saved superbly from Adam Nichols as Town really should have taken the lead.  Then Mark Bell in the other goal went down, rolling in agony after being caught by Paul Chow, but no card was shown.  Within seconds, Bay’s Chris Fawcett was also needing treatment – in that instance I thought I saw a deliberate kick that the officials missed, but I’m not certain who did it.  It was all getting rather niggly.  There was time for Nichols to send in one dangerous cross for Town, and for Bay to go close (McFarlane, I think) with a shot just over.  0-0 at half-time Whitley Bay started the second half on the front foot and here is the first of several decent saves from Bell, after 48 minutes. Both goalkeepers were busy, in fact.  Bay certainly looked dangerous as they came forward but there was also palpable anxiety whenever Town got the ball.  Their wide players were finding plenty of space against ten men and there was one other occasion when a shot went straight at Hayes rather than into the net.  It remained tense and we checked the programme to see whether extra time was playable today.  Scores of phone calls were made to the Wives of Whitley Bay making apologies for lateness.  Here’s another clip. Town had another chance, with the ball being cleared off the line, it appeared, after a moment of goalmouth chaos, but we resigned ourselves to extra time until … well, Wow, what an ending.  That is, if you are a neutral or from West Auckland. With one minute of normal time to go, Matthew Moffat connected with a corner and he headed in.  0-1 Then this … Great work by Robbie Dale to fashion the chance for Paul Robinson to score.  1-1 My final clip is the “if only” moment for the Bay... … because, at 5.26pm, in the 6th minute of stoppage time, a cross-shot at the other end was knocked back and it fell to Michael Rae who smacked it into the roof of the net.  Final Score 1-2 There was a stunned silence, a moment of anger and frustration, and then the home supporters cheered their team, who had lost an FA Vase tie for the first time in four seasons.  For this hopper, it was both a sadness and a privilege to see the run end – I’ve seen them win on the road and twice at Wembley – but now West Auckland fly the Northern League flag for at least one more round, and I hope more supporters will turn up to see it.  They are a resilient side and all eyes will now be on them.  They won both league fixtures too, and should not be underestimated.  The Northern League supplied five of the last sixteen and will have two or three of the last eight in this year’s competition. One day it would have to end like this.  It's nature's way.
Man-of-the-Match
Robbie Dale (Bay) and Adam Nichols (Town) caught the eye in midfield, and both keepers did well – and on balance I am giving the nod to Mark Bell as I am a lapsed part-time associate member of the goalkeepers’ union.
A snippet from the programme
Bay Watch (Love it!) is a very professionally-produced programme which, for those in the know, clearly shows @damon_th of therealfacup celebrating wildly at Wembley during the Bay’s last win.  There is a whole page devoted to “Whitley’s 5th round drama” which prophetically concludes: “Today is the seventh time that Whitley have reached this stage of the competition.  On three previous occasions, extra time has been required and twice the tie has gone to a replay.  There have been penalties, sendings-off and last-gasp equalisers.  What drama will today’s game bring?” The article covers, among others, the home draw against Brigg Town in 2001-2.  “It looked all over for Whitley until Ian Chandler (now Bay manager) sent the fans wild when he scored a dramatic 119th minute equaliser.”  They went on to win the replay and the trophy.  Lee Paul Scroggins had a happier day to some extent in 2002-3 where he scored Bay’s goal in a 5th round home defeat by Oadby Town.
What I learned today
On a bright sunny day, it is possible to remove one layer of clothing at Hillheads and attend the match with nine rather than the recommended ten. STOP PRESS: Michael (see below) and others have pointed out to me that I have used the Sunderland pronounciation of "Haway" and therefore I am like that secret agent in 'Allo 'Allo who has irritable vowel syndrome.  So, listen, and I will say this only once, it should indeed have been "Howay" for the authentic Tyneside feel and I mode a mustook.  I feel so sully, but I have lawned something useful!
What Next?
As readers will know by now, forward planning is not a strength but I am certainly eyeing up the Bournemouth v Billingham Synthonia replay next Saturday.

Decision Time: A Classic d6 Moment

The video clip will show where you might bump into me on Saturday ... it's a foam-and-gravity decision this week for Modus Hopper Random.

It's random!

Welfare Fare Well on the Road to Wembley

Hopperational details
Date & Venue	Wednesday 15 February 2012 at Inkersall Road
Result	Staveley Miners Welfare 2 Oadby Town 0
Competition	FA Vase Round 5.  Both clubs are going well in their respective leagues, the Northern Counties East Premier (step 5) and the East Midlands Counties (step 6).
Hopping	Ground number 450 on the lifetime list and a chance to good to miss – a midweek rearrangement of a postponed tie.
This match in one sentence
The home side’s task was made easier by a fluffed goalkeeper’s clearance meaning they could defend the latter stages with the comfort of a two-goal cushion, and the keeper’s earlier penalty-saving heroics went to waste.
So what?
Staveley MW go into the last eight of this competition for the first time in their history where they will host the winners of the St Ives v Gresley tie.  Oadby Town will now, in the words of the cliché, “concentrate on the league” where they are seeking to bounce back to step 5 at the first time of asking.
Something random
My eye was caught by the programme’s assertion that Staveley have been drawn at home only 3 times out of the last 16 FA Vase ties over the last eight seasons.  I had to check this out of course, so here is a mathematical diversion despite the fact that the claim does not seem to match the complete club Vase record on the next page.  These figures would apply to any club in any traditional cuptie competition. Let’s assume that hotball conspiracy theorists are wrong and that all draws are fair and there is an exact 50:50 chance of being home or away. For three successive ties, there are only eight (2 to the power 3) possible sequences (HHH, HHA, HAH, AHH, HAA, AHA, AAH and AAA) so it can be seen that the chances of three home ties out of three would be 1 in 8, or 12.5%. For four successive ties, we have 16 (2 to the power 4) possibilities (HHHH, HHHA, HHAH, HAHH, AHHH, HHAA, HAHA, HAAH, AHHA, AHAH, AAHH, HAAA, AHAA, AAHA, AAAH, AAAA) of which only four (in bold) have exactly three out of four homes (not counting the HHHH sequence, stay with me on this!).  So the chances are 4 in 16, or 25%. As my readership plummets, we can see that for five successive ties there are 10 sequences with 3H and 2A (HHHAA, HHAHA, HHAAH, HAHHA, HAHAH, HAAHH, AHHHA, AHHAH, AHAHH, AAHHH) out of a possible total of 2 to the power 5 = 32.  I have not listed the other 22 sequences like AHHHH that don’t have 3Hs.  The chances of three homes out of five ties is thus 10 out of 32, or 31.25%. The emerging pattern is shown in this table which will enable us to make the jump to 3 homes out of 16 ties without the need for a maths degree.  The “powers of 2” in the third column will be familiar to most people.  For the second column, I have shown how it is possible to work out the number in the next row from the ones before, because they turn out to be sums of successive “triangle numbers” which are 1, 1+2, 1+2+3 … or 1, 3, 6, 10,15, 21, 28, 36, 45, 55 … and so on.  Beautiful, isn't it?  So neat, so simple - and nothing so far that is beyond the old O level ;) Number of Ties Number of sequences with exactly three homes (X) Total possible number of sequences (N) Chances (X/N) as a % 3 1 8 (2 to the power 3) 12.50% 4 4 (=1+3) 16 (2 to the power 4) 25.00% 5 10 (=1+3+6) 32 31.25% 6 20 (=1+3+6+10) 64 31.25%** ** You might think that the chances of getting 3 homes out of 6 ties would be 50%, but out of the 64 possible sequences there is only 1 with no homes (AAAAAA) and 1 with six homes (HHHHHH), 6 with one home (HAAAAA, AHAAAA, AAHAAA, AAAHAA, AAAAHA, AAAAAH), and 6 with five homes (AHHHHH, HAHHHH, HHAHHH, HHHAHH, HHHHAH, HHHHHA).  We have calculated 20 ways of getting exactly three aways above.  1+1+6+6+20 = 34 and the other 30 out of the 64 possibilities are 15 sequences with two homes and 15 with four homes.  For homework, list them … sorry, old habits and all that.  This isn’t a paradox because the average number of homes out of all the possible sequences is exactly one half. Now we can continue to develop the pattern … Number of Ties Number of sequences with exactly three homes (X) Total possible number of sequences (N) Chances (X/N) as a % 3 1 8 12.50% 4 1+3 = 4 16 25.00% 5 1+3+6 = 10 32 31.25% 6 1+3+6+10 = 20 64 31.25% 7 1+3+6+10+15 = 35 128 27.34% 8 1+3+6+10+15+21 = 56 256 21.88% 9 56+28 = 84 512 16.41% 10 84+36 = 120 1024 11.72% 11 120+45 = 165 2048   8.06% 12 165+55 = 220 4096   5.37% 13 220+66 = 286 8192   3.49% 14 286+78 = 364 16384   2.22% 15 364+91 = 455 32768   1.39% 16 455+105 = 560 65536   0.09% So we can see that the chances of Staveley being drawn home for EXACTLY three out of sixteen fair dichotomous draws was just under one percent, about the same as the chances of me gaining new followers after this blogpost.  Now for the football.
The drama unfolds
The only downside of midweek matches is that my stills pix do not do justice to the impressive (and very blue-and-white stripey, but nothing wrong with that, oh no) facilities of this step 5 club.  @BeatTheFirstMan and I chewed the low-fat alternatives before the game in the comfortable surroundings of The Arkwright Arms and then the clubhouse.  Teamsheets (immaculately word-processed but labelled 6th round, ooops) flowed like (insert something white and flowing here later) and I purchased the rights to the 13th minute for the first-goal-scored.  I hate waiting till the end to find that I have lost again.  As temperatures plummeted, with chip butties in hand, we identified the planets visible overhead and awaited the teams. Staveley (in the blue, of course) were playing towards Jupiter in the first half and the first action of note was a skied shot by Jordan Eagers after 3 minutes which will be dropping into The Great Red Spot in a few decades time.  They also rattled the bar with an Ashley Foyle header after 7 as they imposed themselves on the early stages.  My scene-setter clip from 10 minutes in includes glimpses of Venus as a very bright dot, low in the sky, and the aforementioned Jupiter, fainter and higher to the left.  Things are looking up, and as any astrologer will tell you, when Jupiter is in the descendant in Aries then it is unlikely that goals will be scored from the penalty spot on days ending in the letter y. By midway through the half, Oadby had settled and the game was more even.  Their first real shot was straight into the midriff of Ian Deakin.  Then Staveley’s Joe Thornton (I think) went on a strong run from the half-way line.  As he reached the area, being forced slightly right, he went down as Elliott Shilliam came out to dive at his feet.  No penalty, said the officials, and rightly so I thought.  However, the ref pointed to the spot for a softer challenge after 40 minutes (though to be fair there were not many protests) and here’s what happened. Great work by Shilliam to save Ryan Damms' penalty and Thornton's follow-up, and he needed treatment before the resulting corner.  His evening was about to go from sublime to ridiculous in the next half-hour.  First, the ball broke to Thornton and his low shot to the near post found a big gap en route to the back of the net.  Staveley saw out the last few minutes before the interval without much difficulty.  1-0 at half-time Whatever plans Oadby had for second-half tactics were ruined after 53 minutes, and sadly for them I was pointing the camera in the direction of their defence.  You can actually hear a sharp intake of breath as Shilliam’s clearance became a pass.  Who’d be a keeper? Thornton won’t get many easier chances than that.  2-0 Oadby, of course, now had to take the game to the opposition and they so nearly got one back very soon from an inswinging corner that caused momentary defensive chaos.  The next clip has one of several corners and set pieces that they had in this phase of the game. Oadby’s Michael Reeve was very unhappy to be tripped in full flow in an incident that led to a yellow card for a home defender.  Deakin did well to push away Jon Stevenson’s free-kick to his right.  The next clip has a classic “Oooooh!” from the Oadby supporters (who, it has to be said, outsung their counterparts like the last time I saw them). However, the home defence stood firm and it was only the occasional set-piece like this that really threatened.  The game finished with Staveley running the ball into the corner to see out the final seconds.  Job done, very efficiently.  Final score 2-0
Man-of-the-Match
As chosen by my viewing companion @BeatTheFirstMan, Staveley’s centre-back and captain Tom Jones.  Visiting forwards were well-marshalled, colleagues were organised, headers were won, the sheet was kept clean and It’s Not Unusual by all accounts on The Green Green Grass of Home matches.  @BeatTheFirstMan is not responsible for those gratuitous musical references.
A snippet from the programme
Plenty of Comic Sans content with good coverage of both clubs, and a very honest appraisal of the last time these sides met, in the first qualifying round of the same competition in 2008-9. “A very poor performance by Staveley saw them beaten at Oadby Town.  The manner of the defeat was so disappointing and demoralising.  There was little effort and what effort that was on show was misdirected and naïve.  With 5 defeats in the last 6 games improvements need to be made…  Two games after, and two further defeats, the club made managerial changes.”
What I learned today
I can’t work my new smartphone with freezing cold fingers.  Will practise and try to do better with the tweet update spellings in future.  Shocking.
What Next?
Not a clue.  I am making it up as I go along, so keep following @GrahamYapp on Twitter.  There are some other 5th round ties on Saturday, though, and there’s a good chance I will rock up for one of them.