Hillmen Avengers

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 1 October 2022 at Surrey Street
Result	Glossop North End 2 Ramsbottom United 1
Competition	Northern Premier League Division One West (Step 4)
Hopstats	Ground #759 on the lifetime list and I am here pragmatically rather than randomly because I am trying to get a few long journeys done from my priority list, before the weather worsens and fuel reaches the same price per litre as other pricey liquids such as Chanel No 5 perfume or Hewlett-Packard magenta printer ink.
Context
Glossop (aka The Hillmen) are doing much better in the league than Ramsbottom, but Ramsbottom knocked Glossop out of the FA Trophy last month. See what I did there with the blogpost title? Both sides conceded four goals in home defeats last time out – the hosts against Hanley Town in midweek and the visitors in the subsequent round of the FA Trophy at home to Clitheroe.
In One Sentence
A strong start to the second half in difficult conditions was enough to win the game for Glossop.
So What?
The sides finish the day in 7th and 19th (of 20) places in the division. Glossop are one of six teams separated only by goal difference, four points off the lead. Ramsbottom are three points above the last-placed team.
Pre-match Entertainment
No spare time today before kickoff, but I had chosen the scenic route across the A628/A616 into Derbyshire. I’ve never seen those reservoirs so low.
Match Report
Ramsbottom took the lead with an early penalty, converted by Michael Fitzgerald. It was given when the home keeper and one defender jumped for the ball with one attacker. It looked fairly innocuous to me from a distance and was the first of several disputed decisions in the game. However, I wasn’t as close as the referee, of course. Glossop equalised before half-time. A shot was blocked but came back to Louis White, and his low shot back across the keeper nestled in the far right corner. Ramsbottom could have retaken the lead soon enough. A bouncing ball through the middle fell nicely for James Murphy. He rounded the keeper but was forced wide and by then excellent positioning by Ekow Coker allowed him to clear off the line. So, level at the break with all to play for, as they say. Glossop took command of the second half and started to use the breezy conditions to their advantage. Ram’s keeper Charlie Monks produced a flying one-handed tip-over to keep out a long-range shot, but the winning goal came before too long from a viciously inswinging corner. Monks missed his punch and the ball pinged around for a moment before being touched in from close range by Harry Freedman. This pic shows the development of the crucial chaotic moment. With about twenty minutes to go, it was now about game management. Ramsbottom would need to commit forward, and conditions favoured fast breaks. For this neutral observer, the game rather fizzled out. The game had become increasingly niggly, and eventually in the dying moments something happened in the visitors’ penalty area which led to an old-fashioned bundle. The ref and assistants waited patiently for the rutting to stop before administering a flurry of yellow cards. Not long after the re-start, Coker picked up a red card and Glossop saw out the last few moments with ten men. A small amount of water, or maybe expensive isotonic fluid, who knows, was thrown towards a spectator as the players left the field, in response to some verbal provocation, and of course the officials received their traditional “welcome” as they followed. I headed for the return drive through the High Peak in the remaining sunshine of the day.
Other Match Pix
Glossop in Blue.
Ground Pix
Some of the best surroundings on the Step 4 circuit. This is a neat and tidy ground with decent facilities for this level, and a bit of a slope to add character.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable statistical significance test by the end of the season. The full keeper top performance table from my last 260 matches is here, on this separate page. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Today, Yellow meets Green, and the win is enough to lift Yellow off the bottom of the table. No clean sheets. Prediction: Away Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 44% (51 from 115) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by undeniable half-and-half tops or lower league sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech (and supported by anonymous scientists of some description) that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. It is supposedly because of an innate primeval human reaction to the colour and the colour “spreads” more in the vision of a striker at the key moment of decision. Genius or garbage? The evidence is gathering here, and is leaning towards the latter.
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! I am planning to take in the three Saturday games of the Southern Counties East League Hop next week before returning to the priority list.

 

Rams Go Down to Adversarial Widnes

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 2 March 2019 at The Harry Williams Riverside Stadium
Result	Ramsbottom United 0 Widnes 1
Competition	Northern Premier League Division One West (Step 4)
Hopstats	Ground 681 on the lifetime list and I am here random(ish)ly because West Brom failed to score against Leeds United last night.  My twelve shortlisted games had been linked randomly to the ten starting outfield players, leaving one to be linked to the substitutes and this one for the possibility of either no goals or only own goals in favour of West Brom.  All is explained in the previous blogpost and the evidence trail is on Twitter too.  For example, if Hal Robson-Kanu had scored a late consolation goal, then this post would be coming to you from Street v Evesham United.
Context
Ramsbottom lost at home to Colne in midweek but had been in good form before that, winning five games on the bounce without conceding a goal.  In contrast, Widnes did not win a point during February although they are comfortable in mid-table.
In one sentence
A classic smash-and-grab away win for Widnes, but the home supporters will be frustrated by Rammy’s wasted chances.
So what?
Ramsbottom drop out of the playoff zone into sixth place, and Widnes are twelfth.
Match Report
I’d set off early from the south in order to choose a scenic route up through Chesterfield and Hathersage in Derbyshire, entering Lancashire from the east via the Snake Pass and Glossop.  Wonderful stuff, England looking very good and no hard borders anywhere to be seen. I made relatively few notes in a keenly contested first half.  That’s not to say I was bored, it was more that the defences were on top and both keepers were only engaged in routine catches and clearances.  The match was played at a high tempo, with both sides looking to get forward in a direct style, but Ramsbottom certainly had the lion’s share of possession.  The general pattern was that the home side’s high defensive line meant that they got the ball back quickly when Widnes tried to break.  Rammy’s supporters were showing patience at this stage, firmly believing that it was only a matter of time before a goal would be scored.  Widnes were strong enough defensively and could have taken the lead with either of two chances in quick succession just before half time which were as clear as anything the Rams had produced, but the whistle came with the score still nil-nil.  My 76th minute Golden Goal ticket had increased in value. At the hour mark I made a note to the effect of “just the same” as the game settled back into the same pattern.  I was now thinking that for once in these matters my first-goal ticket might not be a worthless scrap.  The home supporters were beginning to get restless, not unreasonably, as tiredness (perhaps) began to lead to poor decision-making.  The game’s only goal came just two minutes too early for me, but there was an element of gift-wrapping about it.  Rammy had at least two chances to clear the ball before it fell to Ben Hodkinson, who kept his composure and gave the keeper no chance. Stung into more desperate action, the Rams will point to a header off the line and then a stunning defensive block on the line by Widnes’ Sam Sheen in stoppage time to protect the points.  At all levels of this game, you have to take your chances, and this was a classic smash-and-grab away win.
Pix
Fabulous ground and location, should be high on every groundhopper’s list.  Check the timetable of the East Lancs Railway and come on a steaming day for bonus trainspotting.  Right next to the cricket club too.  Ramsbottom in blue.  BR Standard Class 4mt 2-6-4T #80097 chuffing by during the first half A big bluey-green Diesel thing passing by later on
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.  The table below is compiled from my last 182 games. Today, Green unexpectedly loses to Orange.  The clean sheet helps to close the gap on Purple but there are no changes in position.  The overall prediction success rate is now, at 62%, as low as it has ever been. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Home Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 62% (23 from 37) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by half-and-half tops or sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. P W D L GC CS Pts PPG Red 10.5 5.5 1.0 4.0 11.0 3.5 24.0 2.286 Grey 50.5 24.0 11.0 15.5 80.5 15.0 77.5 1.535 Blue 45.1 20.0 7.0 18.1 69.0 14.0 68.0 1.508 Green 97.0 50.0 12.0 35.0 162.0 23.0 115.0 1.186 Fire Cracker 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 0.667 Maroon 5.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 3.0 0.600 Purple 21.0 8.0 4.0 9.0 45.0 5.0 8.0 0.381 Orange 47.5 16.0 9.0 22.5 86.5 8.0 10.5 0.221 Black 6.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 15.0 0.5 -2.0 -0.308 Radioactive Bile 23.0 9.0 0.0 14.0 51.0 3.0 -9.0 -0.391 Yellow 35.0 9.0 7.0 19.0 77.0 5.0 -18.0 -0.514 Pink 18.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 37.0 1.0 -12.0 -0.667 White 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  I’ll be at the Northwest Counties Hop next weekend, for the third in a row in that part of the nation.