Sunday 24 November 2019

Restoration Drama



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Sunday 17 November 2019 at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Result
Tottenham Hotspur Women 2 Arsenal Women 2
Competition
FA Women’s Super League
Hopstats
Ground 706 on the lifetime list. Restores for now my complete current “92” for the top four divisions in England (or 91 when you take account of Coventry City as a groundsharer). Likewise it means that I have been everywhere currently in use down to Step 2 National League N & S for the moment. Brentford’s and York City's new grounds will be opened sooner rather than later too so there will always be the need for restoration.
Context
Spurs Women usually play at The Hive, Barnet, but an international weekend and the prospect of a big crowd meant that this first WSL meeting between these local rivals was switched to the new place. The season is five games old. Reigning champions Arsenal have a slightly better win-loss record, 4-1 as opposed to Spurs’ 3-2. The hosts have priced the fixture very attractively (£7 for my ticket) and have made a pitch for parents-and-children attendance. I dare say there will be a few more groundhoppers dotted around too.
In one sentence
A record crowd (38000+) for a women’s club game in England saw Arsenal take the points with a composed, stylish and efficient performance.
So what?
Still early in the season but it seems that Arsenal will be title challengers and Spurs will be at least safely mid-table.
Match Report
I’m late with this and the game will have been covered in detail already for anyone interested, so I will be brief and impressionistic. It was a predictably cagey start to the game. Arsenal looked a touch more composed on the ball, and their patterns of movement looked promising. Spurs were more robust. There were few clear chances initially but by half-time Arsenal probably should have been in front. Spurs will also point to chances that could have gone in and changed the narrative, especially a shot by Kit Graham that went straight at keeper Manuela Zinsberger. In the end any Arsenal nerves were calmed by a great finish from Kim Little. She controlled a defensive header that fell nicely for her to control, manoeuvre and then fire into the corner of the net.

Arsenal managed the game very well from then on. A short backpass gifted them a second, scored by Vivianne Miedema, and it looked for a moment as if Spurs could collapse. Anything more than 0-2 would have been harsh on the home side, who played a full part in an enjoyable, entertaining game of football. Rachel Furness caught the eye with an all-action and energetic display.

As a neutral and blogger, I just have to comment on the cultural differences between the equivalent fixtures in the men’s and women’s game. I do not side with those who think the latter lacks something in the way of “passion”, that word that is so often used as an excuse or a proxy for poor personal standards or outright lack of self-control. The game played at this level deserves to succeed and all the signs are that it will. The men’s game changed forever once the suits realised there was so much money to be made from media and advertising. Like many groundhoppers, I lost a lot of interest from that point onwards and I hope the development of the women’s game does not make the same mistake and create too big a gulf between the rich and the poor clubs. There’s no evidence at all that Sky, BT and their sponsors really care too much about their wider unintended impact. There, I said it.

I can only imagine that with a capacity crowd, the local infrastructure comes under severe strain. I watched a couple of teenagers deal with this by clinging limpet-like to the back of a bus as it headed south down the High Road. Not recommended. The teacher in me wanted to intervene, but I couldn’t get close enough and maybe it’s just as well.

Pix
It is a phenomenally impressive stadium. Up to now I’d have chosen The Emirates as best club stadium in England, but this one now takes the honour in my book. The asymmetry has been used cleverly to create a clear home end. The range of food outlets is impressive and diverse. Lighting, signage, sight lines and space are all excellent.























Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.

Today was a contest between two very different shades of green.

Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Draw
Was the prediction correct?
No
% of correct predictions so far
52% (32 from 62)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by half-and-half tops or sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.

Full table on this page:

What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! I’ve been everywhere down to Step 2 now, and I have two grounds (Atherton Collieries & Radcliffe) left at Step 3 and seventeen at Step 4. I've not been very active as yet this season but these remain my priorities.


Sunday 29 September 2019

In Case You Didn't Know, Bracknell Hold on to Win

e-Programme

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 28 September 2019 at Larges Lane
Result
Bracknell Town 2 Coggeshall Town 1
Competition
FA Trophy Preliminary Round
Hopstats
Ground 705 on the lifetime list and I am here for randomish meteorological reasons. For 3pm Saturday, as forecast at 3pm on Friday by the Met Office, Bracknell had the most favourable weather forecast of my five shortlisted grounds. It was less windy than Chichester, Hullbridge and Ramsgate and warmer than Mangotsfield. The precipation percentage tie-breaker was not needed.
Context
Two Isthmian League Step 4 sides in different divisions, with Bracknell in the south central division and Coggeshall in the north. Both going fairly well in top ten positions after seven league games.
In one sentence
The straight red card for Bracknell’s keeper at 2-0 led to a penalty and a tense final few minutes with sustained spectator stick for an assistant referee.
So what?
As with all knockout competitions, Bracknell are in the proverbial hat and Coggeshall can concentrate on the league.
Match Report
I failed to notice him last time I saw Coggeshall Town (sorry), but this time the presence of Olly Murs on the visiting staff contingent was given away by his tracksuit initials and the requests for a photo. He and I watched closely as the teams warmed up and it is fair to say that the visitors looked enthusiastic and ready. I’d positioned myself at that end to have the sun behind me, and I watched Coggeshall attacking towards me in the first half.

The match was tightly contested in the first quarter, but the first save of note was a one-handed absolute cracker from home keeper Mark Scott and maybe that was, with hindsight, the hinge point of the game. Five minutes later, Bracknell were one up. Geoff Kibaki’s mazy run ended with a composed layoff to Mitchell Parker who buried it in the roof of the net.

Kibaki sets up the opener
They nearly added a second from a corner and by now they were more or less in control. Coggeshall were struggling to hold the ball up front and the Bracknell defence was looking strong and effective – other than a defensive slip which again needed Scott to make a good save from the chance created. As the first half drew to a close, Bracknell wasted another chance when Seb Bowerman shot for the top corner with better options to choose. The visiting defence was awol for that one and the half-time whistle came with the score remaining at 1-0.

 
Coggeshall started the second period brightly enough but the first chance was to Bracknell, with Dan Carr’s flick drifting just wide. The second goal was timed at 49th minute, and was scored by Carr with a flick at the far post after a right wing corner.

With the two-goal margin, Bracknell managed the game perfectly well with defensive solidarity until the 74th minute and keeper Scott’s straight red card. I was the closest spectator to the collision, and here’s what I can tell you. Scott definitely put his knee upwards just before the contact in a way that cannot be justified. The Coggeshall player asked the ref, “How was that not a foul?” seeming to suggest that the ref had initially seen nothing in it from his position. The assistant was in a better position to see the raised knee, and after consultation, a straight red was waved and a penalty awarded. For what it is worth, this particular pundit says yes to foul, yes to penalty. The keeper was always favourite to get the ball so I do not think a clear goalscoring opportunity was denied. Whether it was a yellow or a red card presumably depends on the dangerous play judgement. I was expecting to see yellow when the ref’s hand went to his pocket. There was plenty of dissent. This included some from me when the substitution was made and sent on a keeper in a different coloured shirt. Not the first time it has happened in the last 206 games I have watched, but annoying nevertheless and a spreadsheet messer-upperer if ever there was one.


Replacement Joe Whiter got his hand to the ball, but the ball spun away so Nnamdi Nwachuku’s penalty kick rolled gently over the line into the far corner. With tempers now frayed, we had some unseemly scuffling at the other end, but I can’t really comment on cause and effect from where I was. There were a few more yellows. There's a Bracknell/handbags joke in here somewhere for readers who think it's important to be earnest.

As we entered stoppage time, our hearts skipped a beat as a Bracknell defender was in right place, right time to make a goal-line clearance. Olly knows about these things. In the end, it was that close. Whiter got himself a deserved yellow for timewasting, and a grown-up (kind of) member of the home support entertained himself and some of his mates by loudly and comedically stalking the assistant up and down the touchline for the final few minutes. Credit to the assistant for not rising to the bait, and maybe he will hang up his flags on Monday. That’ll be one fewer on the available roster. Is that a home win too?

Pix
This is a tidy and well-equipped new facility built around an artificial surface and with plenty of motivational wall-mounted messages suggesting that thought has gone into sustainability and progression routes. All the essential facilities for spectators are excellent. I travelled by train again today and the ground is an easy short walk from the station once you have worked out the initial direction to take. You’ll either need the pre-prepped instructions or a navigational aid on your phone.



















Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course.

Today, as originally predicted, Green beats Yellow despite the late splash of Orange. The replacement keeper was wearing a different colour to the starting custodian, causing further spreadsheet messiness.

Both keepers were captains today.

Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Home Win
Was the prediction correct?
Yes
% of correct predictions so far
32 of 61 (52%)

Full #keepertopcolourstats league table now has its own page here:

What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! No particular plans for next weekend as yet.



Sunday 22 September 2019

Dartford in a Narrow Escape from Hornets



Hopperational Details
Date & Venue
Saturday 21 September 2019 at The Camping World Community Stadium
Result
Horsham 0 Dartford 2
Competition
FA Cup Second Qualifying Round
Hopstats
Ground 704 on the lifetime list, and a non-random visit because it is the only ground on my list of top targets that is hosting a game today.
Context
Horsham are here for their fourth FA Cup tie of the season, after a big away win at Tower Hamlets, followed by a home replay win against Metropolitan Police. They play their league football in the Isthmian Premier League. Dartford are in the National League South, one tier above, and so enter the competition at this stage.
In one sentence
The result was in doubt to the very end as goals right at the end of each half ended a brave showing by the home side.
So what?
Dartford are in the draw on Monday!
Match Report
This is a tidy new ground with good facilities, a half-an-hour walk out of town but easily reached by public transport. The artificial surface allows a pass-and-move, build-from-the-back style which made an entertaining change from the usual channels and percentages that I usually see. The Hornets of Horsham started well, settling very quickly to their style, and they worked their triangles well, particularly down the right flank. Visiting keeper Mark Smith started to earn his money with two sharp reflex blocks in the first quarter of an hour. He was soon to need the help of his defenders with goal-line clearances after some penalty area pinball gave Horsham three half-chances in quick succession. As the half-hour mark approached, he then made an acrobatic one handed stop from Lea Dawson’s close range header arising from a right-side set piece.

By this stage, Horsham deserved to be ahead, so the opening goal was a sickener, coming against the run of play just before half-time. Dartford’s Darren McQueen hooked a loose ball into the net.

Dartford defended with more composure after the break, and although Horsham had plenty of possession, they struggled to create chances of the same clear-cut quality. Smith remained busy, and of course Dartford themselves were able to threaten on the break. Horsham’s best chance of a leveller was around the hour, but Dartford continued to cope well enough. The second goal by Luke Allen, in stoppage time, was a well-taken shot across the goal to the right hand corner, and makes the final score look more comfortable than it was. Good game for the passing neutral, and I expect to see the words brave and plucky in the other match reports. The Dartford forward with the famous dad must get fed up of being mentioned in that context, so I won’t.

Pix
Horsham in yellow and green. Match pix all taken from the shade of one of the stands. Much too hot for my pale complexion and thinning hair!
  













Always nice to see jobs for Marketing graduates ;)
 






Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course!

Today, Green loses to Orange, and this is a second successive clean sheet for a man in Orange, enough to cause the first change in the spectral pecking order for several months.

Man-of-the-Match Mark Smith takes a breather near the end

Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour:
Prediction:
Home Win
Was the prediction correct?
No
% of correct predictions so far
52% (31 from 60)

Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by half-and-half tops or sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box.

This table is from my last 205 games watched.


P
W
D
L
GC
CS
Pts
PPG
Red
11.5
6.5
1.0
4.0
11.0
4.5
32.0
2.783
Grey
53.5
25.0
12.0
16.5
84.5
16.0
82.5
1.542
Blue
49.1
22.0
8.0
19.1
78.0
14.0
66.0
1.344
Green
112.0
55.0
12.0
45.0
196.0
25.0
106.0
0.946
Fire Cracker
3.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
0.667
Orange
62.5
23.0
13.0
26.5
106.5
13.0
40.5
0.648
Purple
22.0
8.0
5.0
9.0
45.0
6.0
14.0
0.636
Maroon
5.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
9.0
1.0
3.0
0.600
Radioactive Bile
24.0
9.0
1.0
14.0
51.0
4.0
-3.0
-0.125
Black
6.5
2.5
3.0
1.0
15.0
0.5
-2.0
-0.308
Yellow
39.0
10.0
9.0
20.0
88.0
7.0
-14.0
-0.359
Pink
20.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
42.0
1.0
-14.0
-0.700
White
1.9
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-2.105

What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! My top three hopping priorities are now Tottenham Hotspur, Atherton Collieries and Radcliffe which will complete everywhere in England down to Step 3, at least until York City move into their new ground.