Bourne Supremacy

 

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 3 May 2025 at the JJMac Stadium, Abbey Lawn
Result	Bourne Town 1 Boston Town 1 (90 mins, no ET) Bourne Town win 8-7 on penalties
Competition	United Counties Premier League North Playoff Final (Step 5)
Hopstats	Ground 800 on the lifetime list! Here because it’s an important match for both teams, and a new ground for me.
Context
Bourne Town had missed out on automatic promotion by one point, finishing behind Lincoln United. They disposed of AFC Mansfield with a 4-0 home win in the midweek semi-final. Boston Town had finished fourth but saw off third-place finishers Eastwood CFC with a 2-1 away win. Bourne won both league fixtures against Boston with a 1-0 scoreline but these matches were back in September and December 2024.
Match Report
With a big crowd expected, I made sure to get to the ground early, and arrived to hear “I Predict a Riot” playing over the PA. I thought maybe this was because the printed programmes hadn’t yet arrived, and an obvious gaggle of groundhoppers were gathered near the gate displaying various degrees of anxiety. With coffee, ice cream and programme sorted in due course, I chose my viewpoint on the far side from the main stand, and even put my woolly hat on as the temperature dropped. Bourne made a flying start. Two corners in quick succession led to a header hitting the bar, and a ball flying through the six-yard box with no-one able to get a touch. Breathless stuff. The rest of the first half settled into a more even pattern. The gusty breeze caused a bit of an issue for both teams, forcing a safety-first mindset for the defences on occasion. Boston had their first clear chance after 24 minutes, but this was followed by the need for a flying one-handed save by their keeper at the other end. However, the visitors took the lead just before the break, with a tap-in for Jordan Nuttell manufactured with a move down the right flank. History repeated itself at the start of the second half with another Bourne chance, the ball once again flying across the face of goal with no-one quite close enough. The occasion was now getting understandably tense, but the equaliser was deserved. Brad Marshall was the scorer, probably one of the scruffier goals scored after two successive corners and a pinging around in the box. Neither team was able to break the deadlock in the twenty remaining minutes and so we went to penalties after 90 minutes. Bourne had the advantage of shooting first. The first six spot-kicks were scored, a mix of fierce shots and cool placements. The seventh was saved to give Bourne the advantage, but so was the eighth. Bourne went into the lead at 4-3, in effect setting up a sudden-death scenario. After 4-4 we were into the sequence of players who might have hoped to avoid taking a penalty. So, 5-4. Then the next penalty so nearly saved, but into the roof off the keeper’s hand. 5-5. Advantage Bourne again at 6-5, but the next one from Boston almost broke the net. 6-6, 7-6 and 7-7 followed. Then 8-7 with a cool defender’s penalty, placed low. It had to happen sometime, but the eighteenth spotkick was saved. Agony for the Boston sub who had stepped up, and fair play to his senior colleague who immediately went to console him. All the arguments for and against shootouts flashed by there and then. Massive joy and a pitch invasion for the hosts. Irritating and pointless smoke canisters were deployed. I left them to celebrate and spent a few minutes watching the club cricket on the adjacent ground before heading home to the spreadsheet and blog. Congratulations to Bourne Town, and commiserations to Boston Town.
So What?
Back-to-back promotions for Bourne Town who will go up to Step 4 next season.
Ground Pix
Match Pix
Bourne Town in claret.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
The background to this, and the latest keeper top colour league table, is here on this dedicated page. Today a draw after 90 minutes between Green (the fluorescent variant) and Pink but an ultimate victory for Green. This has been the first sequence of five unsuccessful predictions since predictions started 183 games ago. The table is based on my last 328 games. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Home Win Was the prediction correct? No (after 90 minutes) % of correct predictions so far 49% (88 from 183)
What Next?
Last-minute decisions, as is my most common practice these days. Maybe a few trips to Wembley if tickets for playoffs become generally available. Already lined up for Women's FA Cup Final and England v Portugal in the Women's Nations League at the end of the month.

You Want Catchup?

Hi, everyone, and thanks for clicking on the link. This is a catchup post for me as the new season gets under way. All but one of these games has been well covered in the groundhop blogosphere so I will be brief, and focus on my unique contribution to human knowledge which is the nonsense of keepertopcolourstats. Well, I say nonsense, but it’s going to need a Kruskal-Wallis One-Way Analysis of Variance in order to be sure. And if you know anyone with the time or computing power to complete one for us, please shout. I’m working towards one, but it’s beyond my current personal mathematical and statistical capabilities. The prediction success rate remains steady at 49% over the last 164 games watched. For any new readers, it all starts with Petr Cech (or some bright spark in Chelsea FC press office).

Groundhopping will be an occasional pursuit for me this season due to other family and work logistics, but here goes. I’ve managed one game in Norway whilst I was avoiding the Euros, and I was at five of the United Counties Hop games at the end of July. The six venues occupy places 780 to 785 on my lifetime list. Here's the catchup for your delectation.

Date & Venue	26 June 2024 at the Aker Stadion, Molde
Result	Molde Kvinner 0 Rosenborg Kvinner 4 (Half-time 0-1)
Competition	Norwegian Women’s National Cup Round 3
A Three-Sentence Match Report
Rosenborg, top tier and cup holders, were big favourites for this game and in the end they had a comfortable victory. Molde had battled gamely for half an hour but the second goal in the 50th minute effectively settled the contest. The two late goals felt harsh but the last one was a cracker.
One Ground Pic & One Match Pic
#Keepertopcolourstats
Red unexpectedly loses to Yellow. Yellow gets a clean sheet.

 

Date & Venue	26 July 2024 at Saffron Lane
Result	Aylestone Park 7 Coventry United 1 (Half-time 6-0)
Competition	UCL Premier League South (Step 5)
A Three-Sentence Match Report
The home side repeatedly got behind the visiting defensive line and were remarkably 6-0 up at half time. The sixth was a gift but the others had all been well-worked and deserved. The second-half was somewhat anticlimactic.
One Ground Pic & One Match Pic
#Keepertopcolourstats
Grey beats Yellow, as would be expected from the colours table. No clean sheets.

 

Date & Venue	27 July 2024 at WH Davis Stadium, Langwith Road
Result	Shirebrook Town 1 Newark & Sherwood United 1 (Half-time 0-0)
Competition	United Counties League Division One (Step 6)
A Three-Sentence Match Report
The visitors took the lead with a glancing header early in the second half. The equaliser came with a quarter of the game left. Both sides missed chances to win it, N&SU’s best chance being a missed penalty, but a draw was probably a fair result.
One Ground Pic & One Match Pic
To be fair, I could have easily chosen more than one from this classic and smart non-league stadium.
#Keepertopcolourstats
With Orange against Pink, I had predicted a Home win. Wrong!

 

Date & Venue	27 July 2024 at The SL2 Rail Stadium
Result	Retford 2 Gedling Miners’ Welfare 0 (Half-time 1-0)
Competition	United Counties League Division One (Step 6)
A Three-Sentence Match Report
The opening goal was a floated free-kick which deceived the keeper and the scorer had the decency to look surprised. In truth, not a great game compared with the earlier one, so I was grateful for the distraction of the passing trains on the East Coast Main Line. I don’t really need the third sent… oh, that’s it then.
One Ground Pic & One Match Pic
#Keepertopcolourstats
Green against Pink. Home win as expected and predicted, and a clean sheet too.

 

Date & Venue	27 July 2024 at JRL Brickwork Stadium
Result	Harrowby United 1 Eastwood 8 (Half-time 0-2)
Competition	United Counties Premier League North (Step 5)
A Three-Sentence Match Report
Eastwood’s second goal came from a very neat move, including a backheel, and must have changed a team talk by coming in first-half stoppage time. In the 90th minute the score was 1-4 including a hat-trick for Aaron O’Connor and we were sidling towards the exit. However, Eastwood added four more in stoppage time including a comedic seventh when a long clearance had come back off the crossbar leaving a tap-in.
One Ground Pic & One Match Pic
#Keepertopcolourstats
Green would normally be expected to beat Orange, but not today.

 

Date & Venue	28 July 2024 at Nationwide Windows Arena
Result	Rugby Borough 5 Leicester Nirvana 1 (Half-time 2-1)
Competition	United Counties League Premier South (Step 5)
A Three-Sentence Match Report
Rugby took the lead midway through the first half and at that stage it was somewhat against the run of play. Nirvana replied quickly after the Borough second and to be honest I was expecting them to go on to dominate the second half. Exactly the opposite happened as Rugby scored three more good goals against lacklustre defence from the visitors.
One Ground Pic & One Match Pic
#Keepertopcolourstats
Yellow against Purple which was predicted as an Away win. Prediction success rate remains at 49% (80 from 164 predictions) and the points table as a whole is based on my last 309 games watched.

 

Vase is Shaded by the Yellamen

This is the first of two blogpost from the "Non-League" Finals day at Wembley.

It's a half-and-half reverse-orientation programme (and very good, to be fair).

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Sunday 21 May 2023 at Wembley
Result	Ascot United 1 Newport Pagnell Town 0
Competition	FA Vase Final
Hopstats	First part of my 27th visit to the refurbished Wembley stadium, and the 29th game (there having been two previous double-headers).
Context
Ascot United are this season’s champions of the Combined Counties Premier League North. Newport Pagnell are the holders of the FA Vase and finished third in their league, the United Counties Premier League North.
In One Sentence
Never a dull game at any moment, and an even contest between two well-matched sides, won by a solitary late glancing header.
Pre-Match
I am all out of ideas for Wembley photographs with a new angle, so this post brings you the chance for an in-depth assessment of Bobby Moore’s right knee. I think you’ll agree that it is one of the greatest knees in English football history.
The Match Report
The sides traded chances and half-chances throughout the first half. Generally, defences coped well with each other’s approach play. Ascot nearly scored from their first corner after five minutes, but Christian Smail was in position at the post to head Jordan Ajanlekoko’s header off the line. Then, Newport’s Mo Ahmed hit the woodwork from a narrow angle when it looked from the other end of the ground that there was a better crossing option. There was a lengthy stoppage for a clash of heads between NPT’s Russell Short and Ascot’s Rob Gerrard, who were both substituted. The end-to-end action continued. From my end, I could pick out instances of great defensive work by NPT’s Lewis Wilson and sub Shane Bush, and there would be similar examples at the other end too. NPT hit the post again at least once. 1-1 at the interval would have been a fair enough scoreline, but 0-0 it was, with all to play for. With hindsight, NPT’s “What if?” moment came early in the second half. Jake Watkinson was in a great position to receive Albie Hall’s cross but the ball seemed to spin off in an unintended direction with the goal at his mercy. The game was still goalless at the hour mark, maybe a bit more cagey now as players became both weary and wary. Ascot, I think it was sub Marcus Mealing, headed against the bar from a corner. The decisive goal came from an Ascot break, An initial cross from the left was too deep but Sean McCormack sent it back in and the first half sub, Kai Walters, produced a glancing header at the near post which crept in at the far post. This left ten minutes plus stoppage time for NPT to get back into it. Ascot managed this well enough, with several stoppages for treatment breaking up the play. For this passing neutral, it had been a decent balance between tension and entertainment. I’d watched the game from within the Newport Pagnell section, which then (as did Ascot’s after their presentation) largely emptied for the following game, just as the opposite side of the ground had largely been empty of Halifax and Gateshead supporters for this first one. I reckon unofficially that the 27000 total attendance was around 10000 for the Vase and 17000 for the Trophy. Both of these sides and their supporters come out of today with credit. NPT can have another go at it next season, but I assume Ascot United will be moving up to Step 4 and will not be eligible. Some Newport Pagnell fans will have been more deflated than others after the game
Match and Post-Match Pix
Newport Pagnell Town in Green shirts.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats Update
Usually accompanied by a pre-match prediction on Twitter just before kickoff. Working towards being able to compute a respectable test of statistical significance, it looks like an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test will be appropriate. The full keeper top performance table from my last 279 matches is here, on this separate page, and I’ll organise the test when we reach 300 pieces of evidence. Today Grey beats Orange and keeps a clean sheet, with no change to the league table positions. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Ascot United Win Was the prediction correct? Yes % of correct predictions so far 47% (62 from 133)
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter! EFL Playoff weekend coming up next and I will try to get to all three games.