Pickering Galvanised to Beat Nailers

Hopperational Details
Date & Venue	Saturday 30 March 2019 at The Silver X Stadium
Result	Belper Town 1 Pickering Town 2
Competition	Northern Premier League Division One East (Step 4)
Hopstats	Ground 690 on the lifetime list, and I am here because I had to abandon an attempted journey to Atherton Collieries due to taking three hours for the first hundred miles on the M1 northbound.  Nevertheless, this is another of my priority grounds and one I knew to be a goodie from other hoppers’ pix.  Therefore, I happily diverted to Derbyshire in plenty of time for a programme and a pie.
Context
No pre-match research done except for a quick look at the table.  The teams are 8th and 15th respectively.  The points tallies suggest a must-win fixture for Belper (aka The Nailers) if they are to stay mathematically in a play-off hunt, and a don’t-lose one for Pickering as they are only four points above bottom place.
In one sentence
Pickering weathered the early pressure and in many ways this was a classic away performance, not very pretty but effective enough to hold Belper at bay.
So what?
This vital win for the visitors is a big step towards survival in the division, and Belper look set for a mid-table finish too.
Match Report
Belper started well and forced several corners in quick succession.  Pickering threatened on the break and won a few of their own.  Both defences looked somewhat shaky.  Pickering opened the scoring through Danny Earl after 24 minutes but the lead lasted less than ten more.  Danny South wearing number 9 was frequently a traditional target man for Belper.  His flick-on went through to Alex Peterson who swivelled and shot to net the equaliser.  Probably fair enough at that point on balance of play. Harrison Foulkes tipped over a snap shot from South and then a Belper defender cleared a shot off the line with his keeper stranded.   By this time I noticed that many of my match photos were very similar, containing 14 or so players in the six-yard box trying to get on the end of a set piece.  There was little variation of approach and the teams were level at 1-1 when the half-time whistle was blown.  Unusually for me, I stayed in the same seat for the second half.  I’m careful about catching too much direct sunlight these days! The winning goal was buried in the net at the far post by Joe Danby.  He was alert enough to react when a teammate in front of him failed to make contact with a teasing right-wing cross.  With over half an hour still to go, there would be plenty of time for more goals, but in the event a mixture of decent defending and wayward shooting kept the score at 1-2.  The result was always in doubt, always a plus point for me as a neutral, but the performances today had a touch of end-of-season about them.  I’d made very few notes.  Pickering needed the points more than Belper, who clearly had a decent first half of the season.
Pix
Belper in Yellow.  This is a fabulous location with interesting views.  The initials on the adjacent Mill building denote the English Sewing Cotton Company.  This kind of thing is why I am a daylight groundhopper in the main these days.  The ground is a short walk from both the station and the town centre and public transport is a viable hoption.  Every hopper should visit here, and indeed many already have.
Goalkeeper Top Colour Stats
New this season – a pre-match prediction based only on keeper top colours as a preliminary test of the data.  Proper statistical significance test to follow in due course. Today, no clean sheets but a win for Orange over Green, pushing the prediction average ever nearer the “expected” 50% after the early-season euphoria. Pre-match Prediction based on Keeper Top Colour: Prediction: Home Win Was the prediction correct? No % of correct predictions so far 54% (25 from 46) Based on conventional 3pts for a win, 1pt for a draw, but also -1pt for a goal conceded (GC) and +5pts for a clean sheet (CS).  Colours ranked on a points per game (PPG) basis. The odd decimal places were caused either by half-and-half tops or sub keepers in a different colour.  The Fire Cracker colour was confirmed with the help of the social media team at Dulux UK.  All of this arises from a comment attributed to Petr Cech that orange is the best colour for a goalkeeper because it changes the behaviour of other players around the box. P W D L GC CS Pts PPG Red 10.5 5.5 1.0 4.0 11.0 3.5 24.0 2.286 Grey 50.5 24.0 11.0 15.5 80.5 15.0 77.5 1.535 Blue 47.1 21.0 7.0 19.1 76.0 14.0 64.0 1.359 Green 105.0 52.0 12.0 41.0 183.0 23.0 100.0 0.952 Fire Cracker 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 0.667 Maroon 5.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 3.0 0.600 Orange 54.5 20.0 12.0 22.5 93.5 10.0 28.5 0.523 Purple 21.0 8.0 4.0 9.0 45.0 5.0 8.0 0.381 Black 6.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 15.0 0.5 -2.0 -0.308 Yellow 36.0 9.0 8.0 19.0 77.0 6.0 -12.0 -0.333 Radioactive Bile 23.0 9.0 0.0 14.0 51.0 3.0 -9.0 -0.391 Pink 18.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 37.0 1.0 -12.0 -0.667 White 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.105
What Next?
Follow @GrahamYapp on Twitter!  If all goes to plan, something a little different next Saturday.