Sunday, 15 July 2012

I need the help of Peter Ebdon ...

It turns out there are 148 possible "new ground" FA Cup ties for me in the Extra Preliminary round of the 2012-13 FA Cup.  At this stage I have not been able to check for groundsharers, kickoff times or even diary practicalities, so I need a way of narrowing this list down.  Originally I counted 147, and @NickWillis2 on Twitter suggested a snooker break method, having ruled out the existence of an 147-sided die.







Well, this is good.  In anything other than the most bizarre snooker frames, the lowest score is 0 and the highest is 147.  (I know that in theory a player could theoretically go on to make a "maximum" of 147 after a foul, but that is unlikely even in my world.)

So here are my 148 ties ... numbered 0 to 147, and in alphabetical order to remove regional bias.

0
AFC Blackpool V AFC Liverpool
1
AFC Emley V Chadderton
2
Almondsbury UWE V Petersfield Town
3
Alton Town V Bradford Town
4
Arnold Town V Holbeach United
5
Arundel V Epsom & Ewell
6
Ashington V Sunderland RCA
7
Atherton LR V Rossington Main
8
Barton Town Old Boys V Barnoldswick Town
9
Basildon United V Diss Town
10
Bedfont Sports V Tring Athletic
11
Bedlington Terriers V Morpeth Town
12
Billingham Synthonia V Celtic Nation
13
Bishop Sutton V Radstock Town
14
Bitton AFC V Bristol Manor Farm
15
Blackfield & Langley V AFC Portchester
16
Blackstones V Barrow Town
17
Bodmin Town V Brislington
18
Bootle V Alsager Town
19
Boston Town V Quorn
20
Bournemouth V Pewsey Vale
21
Bracknell Town V Binfield
22
Bridlington Town V Whitley Bay
23
Brocton V Bewdley Town
24
Buckland Athletic V Bridport
25
Chard Town V Ilfracombe Town
26
Cheadle Town V Maltby Main
27
Chessington & Hook United V Warlingham
28
Chester-Le-Street Town V Billingham Town
29
Chichester City V Crowborough Athletic
30
Christchurch V Cowes Sports
31
Cobham V South Park
32
Coleshill Town V AFC Wulfrunians
33
Colne V Congleton Town
34
Corinthian V Croydon
35
Cove V Slimbridge AFC
36
Cradley Town V Shifnal Town
37
Crook Town AFC V Penrith AFC
38
Daisy Hill V Formby
39
Deal Town V Ashford United
40
Debenham LC V Whitton United
41
Dereham Town V Stewarts & Lloyds Corby
42
Dinnington Town V Atherton Collieries
43
Dorking V VCD Athletic
44
Downton V Ash United
45
Dudley Sports V Heath Hayes
46
Durham City V Newcastle Benfield
47
Earlswood Town V Nuneaton Griff
48
East Cowes Victoria Athletic V Verwood Town
49
Eccleshall V Stourport Swifts
50
Eccleshill United V Glasshoughton Welfare
51
Ellesmere Rangers V Coventry Sphinx
52
Erith Town V Ringmer
53
Fakenham Town V St Ives Town
54
Farnham Town V Alresford Town
55
FC Clacton V Halstead Town
56
Felixstowe & Walton United V Team Bury
57
Fleet Spurs V Totton & Eling
58
GE Hamble V Whitchurch United
59
Gillingham Town V Tavistock AFC
60
Glossop North End V Louth Town
61
Godmanchester Rovers V Thetford Town
62
Gorleston V Stanway Rovers
63
Hailsham Town V Greenwich Borough
64
Hallen V Fawley
65
Hanwell Town V Haringey & Waltham Development
66
Hanworth  Villa V Bethnal Green United
67
Hartley Wintney V Holmer Green
68
Hassocks V Sidley United
69
Hayling United V Fareham Town
70
Hemsworth MW V Runcorn Linnets
71
Highgate United V Wellington
72
Highworth Town V Corsham Town
73
Horley Town V Holmesdale
74
Horndean V Brockenhurst
75
Ipswich Wanderers V Hadleigh United
76
Irlam V Hallam
77
Jarrow Roofing Boldon CA V Pickering Town
78
Kings Langley V St Margaretsbury
79
Kirkley & Pakefield V Sawbridgeworth Town
80
Lancing V Selsey
81
Larkhall Athletic V Willand Rovers
82
Lingfield V AFC Uckfield
83
Littlehampton Town V Molesey
84
Liversedge V West Auckland Town
85
London APSA V Long Melford
86
Long Eaton United V Dunkirk
87
Lordswood V Erith & Belvedere
88
Lye Town V Bartley Green
89
Maine Road V Squires Gate
90
Marske United V Stokesley SC
91
Mole Valley SCR V Badshot Lea
92
New Milton Town V Newport (IW)
93
Newton Aycliffe V Holker Old Boys
94
North Shields V Birtley Town
95
Northallerton Town V Guisborough Town
96
Norton United V Alvechurch
97
Nostell MW V Winsford United
98
Oadby Town V Anstey Nomads
99
Odd Down V Saltash United
100
Padiham V Wigan Robin Park
101
Pagham V Sevenoaks Town
102
Parkgate V Runcorn Town
103
Peacehaven & Telscombe V Banstead Athletic
104
Pegasus Juniors V Long Buckby
105
Pilkington XXX V Atherstone Town
106
Plymouth Parkway V Welton Rovers
107
Pontefract Collieries V Norton & Stockton Ancients
108
Raynes Park Vale V Horsham YMCA
109
Reading Town V Newport Pagnell Town
110
Redhill V Whyteleafe
111
Ringwood Town V Cadbury Heath
112
Romsey Town V Lymington Town
113
Rushden & Higham United V Bugbrooke St Michaels
114
Shawbury United V Westfields
115
Shepshed Dynamo V Heanor Town
116
Sherborne Town V Elmore
117
Shirebrook Town V Kirby Muxloe
118
Shoreham V Colliers Wood United
119
Silsden AFC V Brighouse Town
120
Sleaford Town V Holwell Sports
121
South Shields V Darlington Railway Athletic
122
Southend Manor V Hullbridge Sports
123
Spalding United V Blaby & Whetstone Athletic
124
Spennymoor Town V Scarborough Athletic
125
St Andrews V Borrowash Victoria
126
St Francis Rangers V Rye United
127
St Helens Town V Abbey Hey
128
Staines Lammas V Barking
129
Stockport Sports V Ashton Athletic
130
Stone Dominoes V Rocester
131
Street V Hengrove Athletic
132
Tadcaster Albion V Consett AFC
133
Teversal V Loughborough University
134
Thackley V Hebburn Town
135
Thame United V Newbury
136
Thurnby Nirvana V Lincoln Moorlands Railway
137
Tividale V Stratford Town
138
Tow Law Town V Bishop Auckland
139
Washington V Esh Winning
140
Wells City V Barnstaple Town
141
West Allotment Celtic V Selby Town
142
Whitehaven AFC V Shildon
143
Winterbourne United V Moneyfields
144
Winterton Rangers V Bacup Borough
145
Wisbech Town V Desborough Town
146
Wivenhoe Town V Haverhill Rovers
147
Wootton Bassett Town V Calne Town


Now, who better to help than former world champion Peter Ebdon ... he has a stand named after him at Wellingborough Town, so there is a non-league sign.  Today, he is playing Barry Hawkins in the final of the Australian Open ...  


UPDATE: Here's how it works ...


@NickWillis2 will choose 4, 5 or 6 on Twitter.  These are frame numbers from the final that has just finished.  The numbers we need are:


Peter Ebdon's best break of the frame
Barry Hawkins' best break of the frame
The total number of points scored in the frame
Peter's frame score
Barry's frame score
The margin of victory in the frame


Some of these might turn out to be the same ... no matter, it will just mean that the corresponding match has a better chance.  Once we have six alternatives, it's time for the good old-fashioned die roll.

UPDATE 2: Nick has chosen Frame 4 - here we go!



UPDATE 3:



Peter Ebdon's best break of the frame:
0, we didn't even see him at the table, so that's AFC Blackpool v AFC Liverpool


Barry Hawkins' best break of the frame:
106, ended with a pink that could have given him the chance of 119 and me the chance of AFC Silsden v Brighouse, so instead it is Plymouth Parkway v Welton Rovers


The total number of points scored in the frame:
Frame score was 0-120 so that is Sleaford Town v Holwell Sports


Peter's frame score:
0, so a second chance for AFC Blackpool v AFC Liverpool


Barry's frame score:
120, so a second chance for Sleaford Town v Holwell Sports


The margin of victory in the frame:
120, so a third chance for Sleaford Town v Holwell Sports


Thus we have the games and their probabilities - Sleaford Town (50.00%), AFC Blackpool (33.33%) and Plymouth Parkway (16.67%).  The final selection from this weighted shortlist will take place next week.  Watch this space!






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